Could someone explain how it is known who leads in early voting? Are the counted and released or is the estimate by party voted? I know a number of Dims who are voting for Romney.
no one knows. It’s probably based on who returned absentee ballots. Not sure what else it could be. saying that Obama has that lead also makes me wonder how they are counting independents.
“Could someone explain how it is known who leads in early voting?”
A couple of Elections officials talked about that on Fox. Nobody actually knows who leads. They do know who has cast ballots — it’s public information. They then match those names (voter info is also public information) to the declared parties and do a WAG. They assume voters cast ballots for the guy in their declared party.
A tiny sample of their polled people who said they already voted.
But, it’s ridiculous to assume anything based upon such a tiny sample no matter what it says. And furthermore, they are way off considering the fact that all the polls show huge numbers of “already voted” compared to what state records actually show.
They can't know the actual vote, because those ballots aren't opened and counted until election day.
However, there are counts of a.) how many absentee (or early vote) ballots have been sent out to voters registered with a given party and b.) how many of these ballots have been returned.
A claim that the "early vote" is 66/32 Obama/Romney would probably be based on the number of Democrat vs Republican ballots returned.
The mechanism to determine this is fairly straight-Forward: