OH Absentee Updates: (Still looking terrific)

GMU Early Voting Project ^ | 10/19/2012 | LS

[LS]

NOTE: If counties had virtually no change from 08, or if numbers were extremely small, or if no 08 data is available, county does not appear in analysis.

Athens: college county, D numbers well down from 08 (about 3000 drop), Rs off 300 for R gain of 19 points over 08

Clark: Rs lost by almost 20% in 08, now lead by 8.6% (1100 votes) Ds down 60% from 08 levels.

Clinton: (older numbers: 10/12) Ds down big again, off 1000 ballots giving Rs a 4:1 lead when they won by 25% in 08.

Columbiana: Ds off 1300 ballots from 08 Rs down 20 (!!) For a flip of 14%. Right now, Rs winning this county, which Obama won.

Crawford: another big dropoff for Ds (1500) Rs down 700, but net flip is 17 points for Rs.

Cuyahoga: holding strong at 5.5% change from 08 Ds up total by 5800 from 08, but Rs up 14,600 from OH already. Net Dem advantage here is 75,000, but in 08 it was 85,000.

Darke: Rs up 850 votes from 08 for a 4% increase

Erie: D county went Obama by 24% absentees in 08, now, 8.6%. 2000 vote D dropoff to 400 R dropoff

Franklin: Rs remain strong, up net 4700 over Ds (5.5%) in a county Obama won big

Greene: Rs up 3200 net, flip of 24 points from 08

Hamilton: Rs up big, already over 08 totals and up 10,000 over Ds in a county Zero won.

Lake: Rs up 2200 (2% increase over 08). They are trailing their 08 total a little, but Ds down 14,000 in this county in absentees.

Licking: Rs up 2200 over Ds, 15 point swing. Ds down a lot

Lucas: Ds won this 3.4:1 in 08, now just over 2:1, a shift of 10 points

Montgomery: Rs have cut an 18 point lead in 08 to 11, but Rs have already eclipsed 08 totals by 3300 absentees. Ds were 3:1, now 20k to 14.6k

Pickaway: Rs ALREADY have exceeded 08 absentees by 30 votes. Ds down almost 1/3 for a 26.5% swing. This one went for Obama in 08. Not this time.

Portage: another where Rs have already eclipsed 08 numbers by 500 ballots (2% net increase over Ds who, again, trail 2008 levels)

Richland County: another flip. Ds won by 2% in 08, Rs up by 200 ballots now. Ds trail 08 levels by 40%.

Ross: another flip. Ds down 40% from 08, for 20 point flip.

Stark: Ds won by 17, now only 7-point advantage (barely over 50% of their 08 numbers).

Summit: HUGE falloff. Ds had a 33% margin of victory here in absentees (43k to 12k) but now it’s 16k to 11k, a dropoff for them of 27,100 ballots.

Trumbull: another big dropoff. Ds went from 43 point win to a 28 point lead now, but their total numbers are down 5500 while a Rs are only 150 votes from 08 levels. A 23 point swing.

Tuscarawas: another BIG drop. Ds down from 5500 to 1600, Rs from 2400 to 1900. (A 27 point swing)

Union: both parties’ numbers down so far, but Ds down 2600, Rs down 1100 (a 30-point swing form 08 to Rs)

Warren: holds steady at 4.3:1 Rs, when in 08 it was barely 2:1 Rs

Wayne: another big shift. Dems down 1900 from 08, Rs off only 100 for 15-point swing. Rs lost this county in 08. Not in 2012.

Williams—an important test county, but the data is really old (10/12) and vote totals small (300 Ds, 900 Rs) and no real change from 08. However, 3/4 of all D ballots in, while only about 2/3 of R ballots in

Wood: Ds down 1700, Rs down 500 for net shift to Rs of 8.8 points

CONCLUSIONS: R absentee gains seriously cutting into Cuyahoga advantage. In almost every county Rs have made dramatic shifts from 08—15, 20, 30 point swings. In almost every county—except Cuyahoga—Ds have seen significant dropoffs. However, in Cuyahoga, Rs gained twice as many as Ds gained, so it’s still a net dropoff for the Ds. In no county are Ds performing better than 08. In most counties Rs are performing well above 08 levels.

[pogo101]

Good news in my native Montgomery County and elsewhere.

[ConservativeDude]

Romney is closing in if you consider current polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups_race_changes.html

According to the RCP “no toss ups” count, He needs EITHER 1) IA and NV (down 3 in NV, and down 2.4 in IA...except that PPP shows him up 1 in IA), OR 2) just ONE of the following states: PA, MI, OH or WI.

Of those, he is closest in Ohio.

Bottom line?

This is still close. But doable.

All in all, I think I’d rather be in Romney’s position, rather than obama’s. obama is having to play some serious defense, and on several fronts.

[Crimson Elephant]

Any numbers on the unaffiliated or independents?

[pollywog]

Thank you for this update.

[FrdmLvr]

I just can’t believe that 0bama is still even in this. It just shows you how many people are on the dole.

[FightforFreedomCA]

Gah! Both of those seem troublesome. NV for scenario 1 and only OH and WI seem realistic to me this side of Nov 7th for scenario 2.

On the upside, I think Mitt has the mojo going, so I'm staying optimistic.

[FightforFreedomCA]

I just can’t believe that 0bama is still even in this. It just shows you how many people are on the dole.

At least 47% ;)

[libbylu]

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/19/GOPs-Ohio-Advantage
This gives the state percentages.
I saw on FNC there was an Ohio county with more voters than possible. I thought they cleaned up the lists.

[LS]

No---they of course have large numbers of ballots out---but we can't put them in either D or R column. The scuttlebutt on the ground is that they are breaking significantly for Romney, but this is only hearsay. We had a CNN report that said Romney was +5 among early voting Is. If that number holds up, OH won't even be close.

Part of the heartburn is that Ras changed his polling sample from +1 R to +3 D and that isn't reliable for OH. If anything, we're +1R, but to be cautious, even if you say even, Romney would lead any recent Ras poll.

[LS]

We did a purge. Have no idea what Fox is talking about. But if they’re Republican voters, I have no problem . . . .

[snarkytart]

Thank you!

[Teacher317]

Count the large counties first. Otherwise you’re just telling the Left how much to cheat to get their “victory”

[LS]

Don’t take my word for it this time. If you look at the numbers and they say something else to you, please say so.

[far sider]

Here in Scioto Co. (missing from your list) went for McCain last time. Obama won’t do near as well this time.

[LS]

Yeah, I think that was one lacking 08 data.

[snarkytart]

I appreciate all the work you and Ravi do researching all the numbers. I'm just always nervous about Ohio..it's nothing against you. Add to the fact polls don't show OH catching up with the national trend of Romney having momentum.
:))

[aposiopetic]

Part of the heartburn is that Ras changed his polling sample from +1 R to +3 D

Any idea why he did that? Is there any evidence within Ohio that self-identification as D is up at all?

[mrs9x]

LS -

One of the best pieces of data that I check every day are the total number of RETURNED absentee ballots in Cuyahoga county.

In 2008, there were approximately 265,000 early absentee ballots cast in Cuyahoga County. As of today, it is almost exactly 100,000 ballots that have been cast. If that number turns out to be lower than 265,000, the Dems are in real trouble in the state.

[LS]

How do you get “lower than 265,000.” D’s won the state by 265,000. Since then they lost 175,000 net more voters than te Rs. So, that means we only have to cover 90,000 votes. I’m just not understanding your math.