Skip to comments.In National Polling, Itís Gallup vs. the Rest (Nate Silver in full liberal melt-down mode)
Posted on 10/19/2012 7:34:22 PM PDT by radpolis
The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.
However, the polls results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.
Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
What do the hetero pollsters think?
He has a point. Gallup’s numbers are so far from everyone else that it’s difficult to believe. Hoping it’s true, but we’ll have to wait and see.
They also know which way the momentum is shifting.
Clearly, the last debate did nothing to stop Romney's momentum.
With each debate the American People get more comfortable with Romney as President.
I think Gallup is picking up tea party surge that other pollsters are not. .”Feels a lot like 2010 and scott walker recall.
I’m curious about the States which changed their electoral votes to reflect national popular vote and what impact this would have on Romney.
No actually they do not. They all show Romney leading. Some sligtjly, some seriously. Only the Media polls have any good news for Obama. Nate's problem is he wants to selectively cherry pick the polls that validate his personal political opinions. Basically any MEDIA poll should be thrown out right from the start. They are designed to drive headlines, not to find fact. Looking at the professional polling, Obama is in trouble. Nate want to ignore those polls to cling to the polling that tells him what he wants to hear. Hopefully this election will be the end of Nate Silver's media hyped reputation. He has gone WAY out on a limb here. If the professional polling is correct, and he is this far wrong, his career is over.
I remember back in 1996 when almost every pollster was predicting that Clinton would win by 20+ percentage points. I think one had Clinton up by 25 points over Dole!
Only one lone pollster hit it on the money and showed Dole losing by 8% That was Zogby. Of course, he has managed to live down his reputation ever since.
So yes, one lone pollster all out on its own can be and in times past has been right, and the rest of the herd wrong.
That said, Gallup (like Pew) has a past history of wild swings in its numbers.
Basically the change should be insignificant. Romney may gain 1 in Maine and lose 2 in NE. If he wins NH and Ohio that will be an insignificant difference
Do you know which state did that? Please list.
The homosexual statistician was on the Daily Show yesterday trying to plug his new book. He knows has to do it now because once Obama is gone, so will his credibility.
None. This law is not effect for two reasons.
1. Not enough states have approved the law. If the did it would favor RR because three of the States are California, Ilinois, and Maryland.
2. They may face a constituitonal challenged, which is not clearcut, because state compacts require, per the constitution, approval from Congress. However, the Constituiton allows state to assign electors however they want.
Problem for Nate is the state polls lag behind the National polls. So the state polls should fall in line next 10 days.
So when both the National and the State polls swing against Nate’s opinions, where then is he going to run and hide?
Nebraska and Maine are the only ones in effect for this election.
The New York Times... Now why would I believe anything they say? Come to think of it, I don’t believe anything they say. They are nothing but liberal waste. As a matter of fact, I’m not believing anybody’s poll from now to Nov 6th. I will trust the anger that I feel instead. Screw the polls.
Gallup has been polling presidential elections since FDR.
Do you weight these polls more heavily, or the same as a poll by an ex-Catholic college in Poughkeepsie NY using questionable methodology? (Silver seems to be weighing results from Poughkeepsie more heavily.)
I remember that well. Few places reported Zogby because his polling did not conform to the image the media wanted to create. Rush Limbaugh was one of the few who ever mentioned Zogby.
Nate Silver is wrong and Gallup is correct.
It predicted Obama’s win down to the final point on Oct 18th, 2008.
He can’t dismiss it simply because it shows a result he doesn’t like. I think Mitt Romney holds a very strong lead. Other pollsters just don’t want to come out and say it.
Every one knows Romney is going to win this election and it won’t be a close one at all.