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Romney Momentum in Swing States
Townhall ^ | Oct 19, 2012 | Guy Benson

Posted on 10/20/2012 5:30:57 AM PDT by GonzoII

Romney Momentum in Swing States

By Guy Benson

10/19/2012

 

Nationally, Gallup held fairly steady today, with Romney leading by six among likely voters; Rasmussen has it tied, with data suggesting a small Romney bump is probably on the way.  A new Gravis nationwide poll has Romney leading 46-44, despite a D+8 sample.  The GOP nominee leads independents by eight points in that survey.  PPP's DailyKos/SEIU tracker has Obama up one, thanks to strong youth support.  (Romney leads every other age group, and young voters are the least likely cohort to vote this year). But what about those crucial battleground states?  Here are quick flashes from around the country:

(1) Iowa - A venerable Hawkeye State politico says the race looks like a virtual dead heat with Obama fractionally ahead, but with Romney gaining.  A major signal he's picking up on is the GOP's surprising strength in the early/absentee balloting process, which traditionally benefits Democrats:
 


Democratic pollster PPP just released a new poll showing Romney pulling into the lead in the state, 49/48.

(2) Ohio - While we're on the subject of early voting, CNN and GOP officials are pointing to a substantial tightening, compared to 2008.  John McCain got hammered by 20 points in early voting last cycle, erasing any gains he made on election day itself (when Republican voters tend to turn out most heavily).  This ground war is hugely important -- Ohio will almost certainly come down to turnout.

(3) Florida - A new poll reflects the clear trend that Romney is opening up a stable lead in the Sunshine State.  The new survey shows Romney cracking the 50 percent ceiling and leading by five points, 51-46.  Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are holding a joint rally in Daytona Beach this evening.

(4) New Hampshire - The president campaigned in the Granite State yesterday; it's not a mystery while he was there.  PPP -- again, a Democratic firm -- puts Romney slightly ahead there in a brand new poll, 49-48.  A Suffolk poll last week had the race tied at 47, and ARG's numbers showed a four-point Romney lead.

(5) Pennsylvania - Susquehanna's new numbers show Romney jumping out to a 49-45 lead (!) in the Keystone State in a poll featuring a D+6 sample.  I wrote a lengthy analysis of this pollster's methodology and track record in Pennsylvania last week.  In short, they're a Republican-aligned firm with a pretty solid reputation for accuracy.  That being said, a few major caveats are in order: First, this is a major, major outlier at this point.  Yes, Susquehanna was the first pollster to detect the competitiveness of the state (other firms have caught up with their data), but no one has Romney leading in Pennsylvania, let alone by four points.  Second, this state has been the ultimate "one that got away" for the GOP over every presidential cycle dating back to 1988.

(6) Virginia - Poll: Romney 50, Obama 47.

Good news for Republicans across the board, but this race remains extremely close.  18 days.

Guy Benson

Guy Benson is Townhall.com's Political Editor. Follow him on Twitter @guypbenson.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: New Hampshire; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; poll; polls; romney2012
"A new Gravis nationwide poll has Romney leading 46-44, despite a D+8 sample."

+8 and 46? Can't complain!

1 posted on 10/20/2012 5:31:02 AM PDT by GonzoII
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To: GonzoII
"Pennsylvania - Susquehanna's new numbers show Romney jumping out to a 49-45 lead (!) in the Keystone State in a poll featuring a D+6 sample. "

D+6. Now this is getting interesting...

2 posted on 10/20/2012 5:37:09 AM PDT by GonzoII (Quia tu es, Deus, fortitudo mea...Quare tristis es anima mea?)
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To: GonzoII
There are some hard core Marxists in the Obama administration and some real ball busting Bolsheviks out there counting on an Obama second term to finally bring down their long and most hated enemy aka the free and prosperous America of the Founders...

...til now these domestic terrorists have been fairly moribund thinking they have dumbed down enough of a majority that a reelected Zero was a given.

Unfortunately for them their golden boy is a benighted dork and they are now getting desperate with their time about to pass—their Saint Lenin is telling them now to strike and strike hard before the election...
...the axiomatic October Surprise of the losing incumbent may resemble, this time, the September Surprise we got from Obama’s Islamist buddies 11 years ago in it's impact.

Lock and load patriots cuz it's coming fast!

3 posted on 10/20/2012 5:52:02 AM PDT by Happy Rain ("God helps those who help themselves ergo The Second Amendment")
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To: GonzoII; Ravi; LS; Perdogg

I’ve been saying for a while now that the actually results for Romney will be better than what the polls are generally showing. The partisan splits in the polls STILL continue to reflect absurd D advantages that simply don’t exist.

Take the Ohio poll yesterday that had Obama up 46%-43%, it also oversampled Ds by 6% and undersampled Rs by 3% and Is by 7 (with a few apparent “undecideds” left over). Adjusting it for the REAL partisan split in Ohio and the stated division among independents, I got a result of 49.6% Romney to 42.0% for Obama.


4 posted on 10/20/2012 6:02:13 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: GonzoII; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ..

An incumbant at 44% is underwater


5 posted on 10/20/2012 6:07:02 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: GonzoII

Bttt


6 posted on 10/20/2012 6:09:11 AM PDT by bayliving (I suffer from democrat induced tourette syndrome...)
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To: Yashcheritsiy; tatown; nhwingut; LS

Ras - 3 pt swing in tracking and 2 more pts in swing state. Nice.


7 posted on 10/20/2012 6:11:08 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Yashcheritsiy

Yep. That’s why with all the hand-wringing and hair pulling around here I’m not worried. We see what the REAL votes are by the absentees and early votes, and the Ds are so far behind the numbers there that they need to win, it’s (in my view) over. Romney is already president.


8 posted on 10/20/2012 6:11:36 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Ras - 3 pt swing in tracking and 2 more pts in swing state. Nice.


9 posted on 10/20/2012 6:12:50 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

More important, absentees showing even more of D depressed turnout. Rs down some from 08, but it’s a 3:1 differential in many counties.


10 posted on 10/20/2012 6:14:31 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Perdogg

Unfortunately, our underwater Marxist incumbent is in command of a “Boomer” and is more than willing to take down our nation with him...

...we must hope and pray that those who work for him remember that they swore an oath to the US Constitution and not to him.


11 posted on 10/20/2012 6:17:48 AM PDT by Happy Rain ("God helps those who help themselves ergo The Second Amendment")
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To: GonzoII
"A new Gravis nationwide poll has Romney leading 46-44, despite a D+8 sample."

+8 and 46? Can't complain!

In 2004 turnout was tied between R/D, 2008 had a dem turnout advantage of +6D. Even if you average those two, you only get an advantage of +3D. The interesting thing is, if you recalculate this poll with a +3D instead of +8D, you get Romney at 51%, a number that looks suspiciously similar to the Gallup Number...

It will be interesting to see the Rasmussen poll number this morning, yesterday Scott Rasmussen alluded to a Romney bump that was showing up in yesterdays polling, to be included in today's release.

12 posted on 10/20/2012 6:22:52 AM PDT by apillar
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To: apillar

according to Ace of Spades HQ: Ras - 3 pt swing in tracking and 2 more pts in swing state. Nice.


13 posted on 10/20/2012 6:28:35 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Happy Rain
It's clear that these polls are meaningless. Every polster oversamples Democrats when Republicans have the obvious edge in commitment to vote.

Since the left will not play by any recognizable set of rules of ethics and will not accept defeat, the only rational conclusion is that the game has to be upset in some unexpected way. In short, you're right. Something BIG is coming.

14 posted on 10/20/2012 6:37:26 AM PDT by stormhill
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To: Yashcheritsiy
Adjusting it for the REAL partisan split in Ohio and the stated division among independents, I got a result of 49.6% Romney to 42.0% for Obama.

It seems that the swing is so strong that Ras may be hedging his bets - the turn-around has been so big and so fast that folks in the polling business must be scratching their heads.

15 posted on 10/20/2012 6:42:26 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: GonzoII
Pennsylvania - Susquehanna's new numbers show Romney jumping out to a 49-45 lead (!) in the Keystone State

What was Susquehanna's record in 2000 in PA?

That's the real question.

16 posted on 10/20/2012 6:53:35 AM PDT by Mikey_1962 (Obama: The Affirmative Action President.)
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To: LS
That’s why with all the hand-wringing and hair pulling around here I’m not worried. We see what the REAL votes are by the absentees and early votes, and the Ds are so far behind the numbers there that they need to win, it’s (in my view) over.

I have not felt this comfortable since 1980. I told everybody that Carter was a goner. You do not perform and you are gone.

Ask A-Rod.

17 posted on 10/20/2012 6:59:53 AM PDT by Mikey_1962 (Obama: The Affirmative Action President.)
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To: GonzoII

“(2) Ohio - While we’re on the subject of early voting, CNN and GOP officials are pointing to a substantial tightening, compared to 2008. John McCain got hammered by 20 points in early voting last cycle, erasing any gains he made on election day itself (when Republican voters tend to turn out most heavily). This ground war is hugely important — Ohio will almost certainly come down to turnout.”


tightening to what exactly???


18 posted on 10/20/2012 7:59:20 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: GonzoII
(2) Ohio - While we're on the subject of early voting, CNN and GOP officials are pointing to a substantial tightening, compared to 2008. John McCain got hammered by 20 points in early voting last cycle, erasing any gains he made on election day itself (when Republican voters tend to turn out most heavily). This ground war is hugely important -- Ohio will almost certainly come down to turnout.

Ironically, Ohio is difficult for Romney because of solid fiscal conservative governor, John Kasich. Obama is stealing the credit for Governor Kasich's revival of both the budget and the improvement in unemployment.

Maybe the most effective ad that could be run right now in Ohio is one that includes in it credit due to Kasich. This state's economy absolutely did NOT improve until Kasich took over the reins, balanced the budget, and began personally wooing jobs back to this state.

Obama and his minions, of course, have been busy since about August stealing credit for that. The GOP should have fought back, but they were probably busy spending their money on their candidates.

The author's right. Ohio will come down to ground game. He should have added, "prevention of fraud." That is another big issue, and especially with the early voting abomination that has been foisted on a sleeping population.

19 posted on 10/20/2012 8:02:43 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins
I don't see how 7% unemployment is that hot..just sayin.
20 posted on 10/20/2012 8:12:51 AM PDT by GonzoII (Quia tu es, Deus, fortitudo mea...Quare tristis es anima mea?)
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To: GonzoII

Because in some of the urban areas it’s better than that, but even that is an improvement. In my chronic poverty, rural appalachian part of Ohio, it’s critical. There are very few jobs in the first place and gaining or losing any is always a big deal. That’s what’s so sinister about Obama’s war on coal. It directly impacts the power plants, and they are always among the major employers in the area.


21 posted on 10/20/2012 8:21:36 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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