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"A new Gravis nationwide poll has Romney leading 46-44, despite a D+8 sample."

+8 and 46? Can't complain!

1 posted on 10/20/2012 5:31:02 AM PDT by GonzoII
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To: GonzoII
"Pennsylvania - Susquehanna's new numbers show Romney jumping out to a 49-45 lead (!) in the Keystone State in a poll featuring a D+6 sample. "

D+6. Now this is getting interesting...

2 posted on 10/20/2012 5:37:09 AM PDT by GonzoII (Quia tu es, Deus, fortitudo mea...Quare tristis es anima mea?)
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To: GonzoII
There are some hard core Marxists in the Obama administration and some real ball busting Bolsheviks out there counting on an Obama second term to finally bring down their long and most hated enemy aka the free and prosperous America of the Founders...

...til now these domestic terrorists have been fairly moribund thinking they have dumbed down enough of a majority that a reelected Zero was a given.

Unfortunately for them their golden boy is a benighted dork and they are now getting desperate with their time about to pass—their Saint Lenin is telling them now to strike and strike hard before the election...
...the axiomatic October Surprise of the losing incumbent may resemble, this time, the September Surprise we got from Obama’s Islamist buddies 11 years ago in it's impact.

Lock and load patriots cuz it's coming fast!

3 posted on 10/20/2012 5:52:02 AM PDT by Happy Rain ("God helps those who help themselves ergo The Second Amendment")
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To: GonzoII; Ravi; LS; Perdogg

I’ve been saying for a while now that the actually results for Romney will be better than what the polls are generally showing. The partisan splits in the polls STILL continue to reflect absurd D advantages that simply don’t exist.

Take the Ohio poll yesterday that had Obama up 46%-43%, it also oversampled Ds by 6% and undersampled Rs by 3% and Is by 7 (with a few apparent “undecideds” left over). Adjusting it for the REAL partisan split in Ohio and the stated division among independents, I got a result of 49.6% Romney to 42.0% for Obama.


4 posted on 10/20/2012 6:02:13 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: GonzoII; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ..

An incumbant at 44% is underwater


5 posted on 10/20/2012 6:07:02 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: GonzoII

Bttt


6 posted on 10/20/2012 6:09:11 AM PDT by bayliving (I suffer from democrat induced tourette syndrome...)
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To: GonzoII
"A new Gravis nationwide poll has Romney leading 46-44, despite a D+8 sample."

+8 and 46? Can't complain!

In 2004 turnout was tied between R/D, 2008 had a dem turnout advantage of +6D. Even if you average those two, you only get an advantage of +3D. The interesting thing is, if you recalculate this poll with a +3D instead of +8D, you get Romney at 51%, a number that looks suspiciously similar to the Gallup Number...

It will be interesting to see the Rasmussen poll number this morning, yesterday Scott Rasmussen alluded to a Romney bump that was showing up in yesterdays polling, to be included in today's release.

12 posted on 10/20/2012 6:22:52 AM PDT by apillar
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To: GonzoII
Pennsylvania - Susquehanna's new numbers show Romney jumping out to a 49-45 lead (!) in the Keystone State

What was Susquehanna's record in 2000 in PA?

That's the real question.

16 posted on 10/20/2012 6:53:35 AM PDT by Mikey_1962 (Obama: The Affirmative Action President.)
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To: GonzoII

“(2) Ohio - While we’re on the subject of early voting, CNN and GOP officials are pointing to a substantial tightening, compared to 2008. John McCain got hammered by 20 points in early voting last cycle, erasing any gains he made on election day itself (when Republican voters tend to turn out most heavily). This ground war is hugely important — Ohio will almost certainly come down to turnout.”


tightening to what exactly???


18 posted on 10/20/2012 7:59:20 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: GonzoII
(2) Ohio - While we're on the subject of early voting, CNN and GOP officials are pointing to a substantial tightening, compared to 2008. John McCain got hammered by 20 points in early voting last cycle, erasing any gains he made on election day itself (when Republican voters tend to turn out most heavily). This ground war is hugely important -- Ohio will almost certainly come down to turnout.

Ironically, Ohio is difficult for Romney because of solid fiscal conservative governor, John Kasich. Obama is stealing the credit for Governor Kasich's revival of both the budget and the improvement in unemployment.

Maybe the most effective ad that could be run right now in Ohio is one that includes in it credit due to Kasich. This state's economy absolutely did NOT improve until Kasich took over the reins, balanced the budget, and began personally wooing jobs back to this state.

Obama and his minions, of course, have been busy since about August stealing credit for that. The GOP should have fought back, but they were probably busy spending their money on their candidates.

The author's right. Ohio will come down to ground game. He should have added, "prevention of fraud." That is another big issue, and especially with the early voting abomination that has been foisted on a sleeping population.

19 posted on 10/20/2012 8:02:43 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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