I’ve been saying for a while now that the actually results for Romney will be better than what the polls are generally showing. The partisan splits in the polls STILL continue to reflect absurd D advantages that simply don’t exist.
Take the Ohio poll yesterday that had Obama up 46%-43%, it also oversampled Ds by 6% and undersampled Rs by 3% and Is by 7 (with a few apparent “undecideds” left over). Adjusting it for the REAL partisan split in Ohio and the stated division among independents, I got a result of 49.6% Romney to 42.0% for Obama.
Ras - 3 pt swing in tracking and 2 more pts in swing state. Nice.
Yep. That’s why with all the hand-wringing and hair pulling around here I’m not worried. We see what the REAL votes are by the absentees and early votes, and the Ds are so far behind the numbers there that they need to win, it’s (in my view) over. Romney is already president.
It seems that the swing is so strong that Ras may be hedging his bets - the turn-around has been so big and so fast that folks in the polling business must be scratching their heads.