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Mitt Romney pushes into battle ground states of PA and NH weeks before presidential election
NY Daily News ^ | Saturday, October 20, 2012, 3:28 PM | Jonathan Lemire

Posted on 10/20/2012 1:34:49 PM PDT by Red Steel

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1 posted on 10/20/2012 1:34:51 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel
LOL: "anxious to find the right combination."

Or, gee, could it be that in fact OH is now swinging their way and they are building a larger electoral majority?

2 posted on 10/20/2012 1:38:39 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Red Steel

I love the narrative of this report. As if Obama is still in control, and Romney is scrambling to find some EVs. Could not be further from the truth.


3 posted on 10/20/2012 1:40:01 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Red Steel

Anxious? GOP candidates don’t put money, time and staff into PA when they’re anxious, they do that when they have territory locked up and want to try for more.


4 posted on 10/20/2012 1:44:08 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: Red Steel

Real headline:

Romney expands Electoral Map into PA and NH. Looks for Landslide!


5 posted on 10/20/2012 1:44:28 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: LS
Or, gee, could it be that in fact OH is now swinging their way and they are building a larger electoral majority?

I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column. I'm increasingly thinking this is 2000 where Romney is Gore and Obama is Bush. We could see a state or two won by razor thin margins like 2000 as well.

6 posted on 10/20/2012 1:53:34 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: Jim from C-Town; All

I saw a headline in where Obama had to buy ad time in Minnesota.. Not good for the Zero..


7 posted on 10/20/2012 1:54:19 PM PDT by KevinDavis (And you, be ye fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein.)
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To: lasereye

What I meant of course is I think Romney wins the popular vote and loses the EV’s.


8 posted on 10/20/2012 1:55:29 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: KevinDavis

They bought air time in MN that is broadcast in WI. It’s for WI not MN.


9 posted on 10/20/2012 1:56:26 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage

COLUMBUS — An Ohio history professor’s analysis of absentee ballot requests found a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm in the battleground state since 2008.

The University of Dayton’s Larry Schweikart tallied absentee ballot requests so far in 2012 and compared them to similar requests four years ago. His review showed a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP.

Still more Democrats than Republicans requested early ballots, but Democrats’ percentage advantage has shifted from 33-19 in 2008 to 30-23 this year.

“In 2008, Obama cleaned McCain in absentee voting,” Schweikart said in a news release announcing the findings. “McCain actually won the statewide vote on Election Day, but he was too far buried in the absentee and early vote count. Early voting in Ohio began earlier this month and could still produce some surprises.”

Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the state’s large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.

“In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties,” he said. “What this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and I’m predicting a total shift from 2008.”


10 posted on 10/20/2012 1:57:50 PM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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To: lasereye
I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column.

The last 3 or 4 polls have had it a dead heat with samples ranging from D+6 to D+9.

With the turnout is likely to be at D+2 or 3, Romney is already up. It is not in "his column" per se, like FL, and NC. Or even as strong as VA. But the trend is there and he should win OH, fairly easy (+4). Unless something drastic happens (October Surprise).
11 posted on 10/20/2012 1:59:10 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: lasereye
NH I can see. But the PA move actually worries me. I'd like to believe the D+ margins and turnout predictions are wrong, but if they aren't the truth is OH is not moving very much. In that case this becomes 2008 where R/R waste time in PA because they have no other path.

I sure hope the folks saying this is an attempt to go for a mandate are correct.

12 posted on 10/20/2012 1:59:21 PM PDT by FredZarguna (A bump in the road. Not optimal.)
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To: Catsrus

Well actually you’re confirming what I said - that the polls don’t indicate OH is swinging to Romney.


13 posted on 10/20/2012 1:59:32 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: nhwingut

Seriously. Obama is in FL? Good. Waste those resources. Looks to me like Romney seeing the internals have secured OH and now are looking to add PA and NH.


14 posted on 10/20/2012 1:59:52 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: lasereye; All

I disagree... Besides read this: http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/174690791.html


15 posted on 10/20/2012 2:00:20 PM PDT by KevinDavis (And you, be ye fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein.)
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To: KevinDavis

Those are radio stations in eastern MN that are heard in western WI. I don’t believe they’re worried about MN.


16 posted on 10/20/2012 2:03:22 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: FredZarguna

Mitt is down 1 or tied in most Ohio polls today with a D+ 7 or 8 ! What does that tell you:)


17 posted on 10/20/2012 2:03:34 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: FredZarguna
I sure hope the folks saying this is an attempt to go for a mandate are correct.

No they're not going for a mandate. That's delusional. They may need to carry PA because OH is iffy.

18 posted on 10/20/2012 2:05:12 PM PDT by lasereye
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: lasereye

What ??? Mitt is down 1 or tied in Ohio with polls that are D+ 7 or 8. There’s no way Obama gets over D+ 2 or 3 in that state. Figure it out.


20 posted on 10/20/2012 2:08:01 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: lasereye

PPP Polls has Obama up 1 in Ohio in a +9 Dem sample. In 2008 Ohio was about +5 Dem.


21 posted on 10/20/2012 2:08:01 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: lasereye; All

Funny looking at your posting history, nice to see you that showed up during this year..


22 posted on 10/20/2012 2:08:42 PM PDT by KevinDavis (And you, be ye fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein.)
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To: Red Steel

Our local TV stations broadcast into NH and I have seen zero ads for Romney. Not even one.

I’ll be interested to see if that changes over then next 2 weeks.


23 posted on 10/20/2012 2:10:01 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist

I agree these D+9 polls make no sense. I imagine Gallup has Romney ahead there now, if they’ve taken a poll there recently, because their national poll has him leading outside the margin of error.


24 posted on 10/20/2012 2:10:30 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: Red Steel

People are going to worry about Ohio down to election day. The trend is our friend, though.


25 posted on 10/20/2012 2:10:30 PM PDT by goodolemr
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To: KevinDavis

Stupid remark.


26 posted on 10/20/2012 2:11:36 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

God help America if that happens.


27 posted on 10/20/2012 2:15:12 PM PDT by carriage_hill (The 0bummer Penguin & Bidet Joker: We played this country like a harp from hell.)
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To: Straight Vermonter

Mitt’s people are spending all that money in the Boston market. Your TV market in Vermont only hits the western part of NH, which as you know, is the most liberal part of the state. Better bang for the buck in the Boston market which hits the most GOP part of the state.


28 posted on 10/20/2012 2:17:31 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: LongWayHome

As I said, I hope you’re right.


29 posted on 10/20/2012 2:20:30 PM PDT by FredZarguna (A bump in the road. Not optimal.)
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To: KevinDavis

I lost the URL that checks posting history. Could you FReepmail me that?


30 posted on 10/20/2012 2:23:02 PM PDT by FredZarguna (A bump in the road. Not optimal.)
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To: lasereye

Gallup has Romney 51 to Obama 45. On 10-20-08 it had Obama 51 to McCain 44.


31 posted on 10/20/2012 2:25:54 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: FredZarguna

The trend for Mitt is very solid right now, and that’s a big deal. I’m not thrilled with going into Penn, but the Romney team is smart & their internal polls must be showing a REAL shift there otherwise I doubt they would go there.


32 posted on 10/20/2012 2:26:49 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: Red Steel

Romney’s been campaigning in NH for six years. He announced his frigging campaign there (both times, I believe).


33 posted on 10/20/2012 2:27:39 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: lasereye
"I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column."

See, there's your mistake. Pollsters predict the future based on the future intent of people who haven't acted.

I'm a historian. I predict the future based on evidence of things that have already occurred. What evidence do we have? Polls are not evidence of what has happened or even what will happen. They are badly flawed manipulative tools to tell whatever story someone wants to tell.

On the other hand, we have REAL absentee ballot requests to compare with 08. We have REAL 08 numbers and REAL 2012 numbers. We have REAL early voting numbers.

In all the REAL evidence we have, the Ds are massively down from 08, the Rs are substantially up. The Ds are nowhere here what they need to win OH.

So, the poster is right. I think this is beyond Bush's 04 numbers in OH, probably around a 200,000 R victory.

34 posted on 10/20/2012 2:31:56 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: KevinDavis

You got a link to that?


35 posted on 10/20/2012 2:32:46 PM PDT by Dog (Founding member of the Osama Bin Laden was alive the whole time club..)
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To: LongWayHome
PA has a +12 (active) D registration advantage (D/R/I 50/38/12).

The Susquehanna Poll showing Romney leading +4 has a D+6. That's simply not realistic in the Commonwealth. If we could get to an enthusiasm gap like 2010, Romney would win (Toomey won by 1% I believe, I can't recall Corbett's number in the gubernatorial.) But we aren't going to get there. It will be MUCH closer than 2008, but I think it's a waste of time unless R/R have some internals with D+8 or D+9 that show them something we don't know about. Even so, if R/R has PA, they also have WI, IA and CO, and they probably also have OH, in which case spending money in PA still doesn't make sense.

36 posted on 10/20/2012 2:37:52 PM PDT by FredZarguna (A bump in the road. Not optimal.)
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To: FredZarguna
I think going to PA and NH is logical-- NH because it is really in close sights and PA because while it is a little further away, it has a big electoral count.

PA is in reach. PA is ground zero for the 'clean-coal' and 'fracking gas' vote and it is fastly becoming a big issue, and unemployment in PA was bad in 2008 but is much worse now.

There are, however, 500,000+ Obama votes in Philadelphia, and I don't know what happens there. Even if Philly voters identify with Obama, I'm not sure they'll be willing to stand in line for an hour this time.

37 posted on 10/20/2012 2:42:46 PM PDT by polstar123
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To: FredZarguna

Good post. I agree. Penn is such a tease, but in the end it’s always just out of reach for the national GOP. Perhaps Mitt’s people will hit the areas in Penn near the Ohio market with ads & kill 2 birds with one stone. IDK.


38 posted on 10/20/2012 2:48:56 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: lasereye
Well actually you’re confirming what I said - that the polls don’t indicate OH is swinging to Romney.

I think it's fair to say that they're swinging toward him, though.

39 posted on 10/20/2012 2:51:26 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Teach a man to fish and you lose a Democratic voter.)
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To: LS

Seriously? What benefit do you think it has fors him to waste resources? If he’s there it means they think he can win it.


40 posted on 10/20/2012 2:56:17 PM PDT by paul544
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To: lasereye

The polls are moving in Romney’s favor in Ohio. It is not won, but he can win it. It has been steadily going in his direction. Most have it in the margin of error or tied. Very winnable.


41 posted on 10/20/2012 3:03:03 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: paul544
Not necessarily. Mack has now closed with Nelson. The Ds stand a very good chance of getting slammed in the senate if they don't regain some footing. McCaskill may lose in MO (it was a gimme a month ago), Heller is up 10 in NV (that race was almost tied a month ago), Mandell is up in the latest OH poll (that was a D seat a month ago). So perhaps the DNC thinks Obama needs to be there to help turnout for Nelson.

I don't know anyone, including the usually unreliable pollsters, who think Obama is still alive in FL, NC, or even VA.

42 posted on 10/20/2012 3:19:58 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LongWayHome
Good post. I agree. Penn is such a tease, but in the end it’s always just out of reach for the national GOP. Perhaps Mitt’s people will hit the areas in Penn near the Ohio market with ads & kill 2 birds with one stone. IDK.

Just what Ryan was doing today. Pittsburgh Intl. Airpot is only 30 miles from the Ohio state line. Ryan flew in the Pittsburgh, did a rally at the airport then drove off into SE Ohio coal-country for more apparences.

43 posted on 10/20/2012 3:55:09 PM PDT by Ditto (Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
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To: LS

The absentee ballot requests are good data. So is the trend of party registration in states that register by party. So are the “exit polls” (given that we have early voting, an increasing proportion of the polls we have are exit polls). But, so are polls that actually are polls of voting preference.

In 2004, Ohio had a 5 point Republican advantage and, in 2008, an 8 point Democratic advantage. This was a huge swing. Then, from 2008 to the mid-term elections of 2010, another huge swing, 9 points.

Also, looking at Gallup’s tracking of party affiliation among adults (or possibly registered voters), from 2009 to 2011, a similar 9 point swing.

So, there is the potential for a huge swing in the partisan mix from 2008 to 2012. This year, who knows, I’m thinking a 1 point Democratic advantage is conservative (from a pro-Romney view).

Another way to look at this is the demographics of voters as revealed by the post-election Current Population Survey. The big shift in 2008 was due (A) to blacks and (B) to younger adults. Possibly black turnout will remain at its elevated level of 2008, but it is not credible that young adult turnout will. This argues that the demographics of this election will be something between those of 2004 and 2008, which would support the argument that the partisan mix will also be something between.

Now, let’s look at the recent polls in Ohio. Four recent telephone polls (not including Rasmussen) and two recent internet polls involve Democratic partisan advantages ranging from 4 to 9 points. That does not look right. What I suspect is going on is that the pollsters are either imposing the partisan mix of the 2008 election, and/or the demographic mix of the 2008 election onto the responses, by weighting the responses.

Now I’ll look at Raz. He imposes a moving average partisan mix. This is fine for the country (although it temporarily stifles a shift in voter preferences that coincides with a shift in party affiliation, which, I believe, explains the current cleavage between Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s nationwide numbers).

What Raz does at the state level is adjust the state spread by the changes in the national spread. But the national spread has been changing slow relative to the changes in the spread in Ohio during the past four years. So, I think Raz’ methodology results in him being off by a couple points in Ohio.

When I adjust the polls to reflect a 1 point Democratic advantage in Ohio, I get Romney up by 2 points. This still makes the state a toss-up. But, there is reason to be optimistic.

One final point. The foray into Pennsylvania is not merely a feint. At this point, it might not be possible for the other side to gear up a GOTV effort. If Romney is within 2 points in this state, and if he is flush with cash and Obama is strapped, Romney can steal this state (and a couple others) during the week prior to the election.


44 posted on 10/20/2012 3:55:18 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Mr. Silverback

“they do that when they have territory locked up and want to try for more.”

Right On! I’m gonna know the election is wrapped up when I see Romney campaigning in California.


45 posted on 10/20/2012 4:04:12 PM PDT by A'elian' nation (Political correctness does not legislate tolerance; it only organizes hatred. Jacques Barzun)
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To: Redmen4ever; SeekAndFind; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ..
"Now, let’s look at the recent polls in Ohio. Four recent telephone polls (not including Rasmussen) and two recent internet polls involve Democratic partisan advantages ranging from 4 to 9 points. That does not look right. What I suspect is going on is that the pollsters are either imposing the partisan mix of the 2008 election, and/or the demographic mix of the 2008 election onto the responses, by weighting the responses."

You are really onto something here, and I saw an article BUT CAN'T FIND IT NOW, SO HELP IF YOU CAN!! :), that was something like "Obama wins OH if 400,000 white people don't vote." The gist was that all the polls are not JUST oversampling Ds, but heavily oversampling blacks and hispanics. They are likewise undersampling whites, but especially white Rs.

I've Googled, looked on FR, Big Government but can't find it. If anyone can help, I'd appreciate it.

46 posted on 10/20/2012 4:09:01 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/20/ohio-tied-if-350000-white-voters-dont-show-up-gravis-marketing/


47 posted on 10/20/2012 4:59:41 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; brityank; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


48 posted on 10/20/2012 5:08:22 PM PDT by randita
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To: LS

SHAZAM!
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/20/ohio-tied-if-350000-white-voters-dont-show-up-gravis-marketing/


49 posted on 10/20/2012 5:13:08 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Redmen4ever

Pretty amazing, huh?


50 posted on 10/20/2012 5:19:49 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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