Skip to comments.Mitt Romney pushes into battle ground states of PA and NH weeks before presidential election
Posted on 10/20/2012 1:34:49 PM PDT by Red Steel
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I remember 2008 when lots of Freepers were saying McCain was going to win. It was not backed by any polls but everyone kept touting the Bradley Effect. How ridiculous does that look now? I think anyone who disagreed was probably attacked.
Of course Romney’s going to do better than McCain but that’s not automatically the same as winning.
That’s not the argument. The data says that Ibama’s early vote #s show such a falloff that he can’t win. Now, if you want to keep going on this, fin but I am not going to talk about 2008. Show me in the 2012 data where Obama wins. Don’t give me polls. Give me evidence from the actual data. But please don’t keep whining about 08.
I’m not aware it’s possible to project the outcome with any confidence based on early voting patterns. I’m not disputing what you say but I’m curious as to where it comes from. Is there a statistical correlation model which produces such a prediction? Is it a computer model? Is it a methodology you developed? Just asking.
That guy just says IA will be close based on early voting, but the polls are showing that too. So early voting isn’t telling us something different than polls, if he knows what he’s talking about.
Well other than the WSJ/NBC poll, IA is close.
Other states, such as NC, also have heavy early voting, but in 08 Ds turned out higher on Election Day, so it's important the Rs LEAD in absentee/early voting (which they have in NC).
IA and NV are just the opposite: there the Ds build up big early voting leads.
We've explained the science here dozens of times. Have you been watching the threads? Let tell you what sold me on this reality. In 2004, late at night they were still counting ballots in IA. Michael Barone was on FOX looking at just one or two counties. He said, with the counties still yet to report, Bush has won. The counties were composed in such a way that if they voted at traditional percentage splits, Bush would win.
That's all we do here. We look at which counties turned out in what percentages, and just draw trend lines. If you have a red county turning out 20% higher than in 08 when it lost by 10% it doesn't take a genius to see that the Rs will win that county.
Every state has key counties that tell you all you need to know. If the early vote is held own in Clark Co. NV. , we win. If the absentee/early vote is heavy in Warren Co. or Hamilton Co. it's pretty likely we win.
See, you’re still not getting it. The guy didn’t say IA “will be close”, what he said was that the early voting percentages (D/Rsplits + turnout) look like 04, not 08. Well, in 04 it was lose but Bush won. In 08 IA was gone before early voting was over because of the D lead in early voting, but that isn’t happening in 2012. Early outing is not about numbers it’s about percentages-— who has the bullets left in their gun? I’m not saying R will win IA, but rather that it looks like 04, not 08, which means Rs are MORE LIKELY to win.
One big static billboard had a picture of a chicken with the caption "A taxpayer voting for Obama is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders".
Bottom line, the effort is there in W. PA.
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