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To: LS
Or, gee, could it be that in fact OH is now swinging their way and they are building a larger electoral majority?

I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column. I'm increasingly thinking this is 2000 where Romney is Gore and Obama is Bush. We could see a state or two won by razor thin margins like 2000 as well.

6 posted on 10/20/2012 1:53:34 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

What I meant of course is I think Romney wins the popular vote and loses the EV’s.


8 posted on 10/20/2012 1:55:29 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage

COLUMBUS — An Ohio history professor’s analysis of absentee ballot requests found a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm in the battleground state since 2008.

The University of Dayton’s Larry Schweikart tallied absentee ballot requests so far in 2012 and compared them to similar requests four years ago. His review showed a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP.

Still more Democrats than Republicans requested early ballots, but Democrats’ percentage advantage has shifted from 33-19 in 2008 to 30-23 this year.

“In 2008, Obama cleaned McCain in absentee voting,” Schweikart said in a news release announcing the findings. “McCain actually won the statewide vote on Election Day, but he was too far buried in the absentee and early vote count. Early voting in Ohio began earlier this month and could still produce some surprises.”

Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the state’s large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.

“In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties,” he said. “What this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and I’m predicting a total shift from 2008.”


10 posted on 10/20/2012 1:57:50 PM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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To: lasereye
I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column.

The last 3 or 4 polls have had it a dead heat with samples ranging from D+6 to D+9.

With the turnout is likely to be at D+2 or 3, Romney is already up. It is not in "his column" per se, like FL, and NC. Or even as strong as VA. But the trend is there and he should win OH, fairly easy (+4). Unless something drastic happens (October Surprise).
11 posted on 10/20/2012 1:59:10 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: lasereye
NH I can see. But the PA move actually worries me. I'd like to believe the D+ margins and turnout predictions are wrong, but if they aren't the truth is OH is not moving very much. In that case this becomes 2008 where R/R waste time in PA because they have no other path.

I sure hope the folks saying this is an attempt to go for a mandate are correct.

12 posted on 10/20/2012 1:59:21 PM PDT by FredZarguna (A bump in the road. Not optimal.)
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To: lasereye

PPP Polls has Obama up 1 in Ohio in a +9 Dem sample. In 2008 Ohio was about +5 Dem.


21 posted on 10/20/2012 2:08:01 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: lasereye
"I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column."

See, there's your mistake. Pollsters predict the future based on the future intent of people who haven't acted.

I'm a historian. I predict the future based on evidence of things that have already occurred. What evidence do we have? Polls are not evidence of what has happened or even what will happen. They are badly flawed manipulative tools to tell whatever story someone wants to tell.

On the other hand, we have REAL absentee ballot requests to compare with 08. We have REAL 08 numbers and REAL 2012 numbers. We have REAL early voting numbers.

In all the REAL evidence we have, the Ds are massively down from 08, the Rs are substantially up. The Ds are nowhere here what they need to win OH.

So, the poster is right. I think this is beyond Bush's 04 numbers in OH, probably around a 200,000 R victory.

34 posted on 10/20/2012 2:31:56 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: lasereye

I believe they’re doing this because they’ve done the same electoral college analysis I have. If Romney wins FL, VA and CO, but lose OH, he needs one of the below combinations of swing states to make up for OH...

1. PA or MI
2. NV, IA and NH
3. NV, IA and 1 EV from Maine
4. WI and any one of the above states

PA looks so desirable as an easy substitute for OH, but McCain/Palin tried extremely hard for it and failed miserably. I think they should focus heavily on NV, IA, NH and WI. That gives them 2 paths to victory.


52 posted on 10/20/2012 5:42:39 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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