I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column. I'm increasingly thinking this is 2000 where Romney is Gore and Obama is Bush. We could see a state or two won by razor thin margins like 2000 as well.
What I meant of course is I think Romney wins the popular vote and loses the EV’s.
COLUMBUS An Ohio history professors analysis of absentee ballot requests found a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm in the battleground state since 2008.
The University of Daytons Larry Schweikart tallied absentee ballot requests so far in 2012 and compared them to similar requests four years ago. His review showed a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP.
Still more Democrats than Republicans requested early ballots, but Democrats percentage advantage has shifted from 33-19 in 2008 to 30-23 this year.
In 2008, Obama cleaned McCain in absentee voting, Schweikart said in a news release announcing the findings. McCain actually won the statewide vote on Election Day, but he was too far buried in the absentee and early vote count. Early voting in Ohio began earlier this month and could still produce some surprises.
Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the states large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.
In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties, he said. What this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and Im predicting a total shift from 2008.
I sure hope the folks saying this is an attempt to go for a mandate are correct.
PPP Polls has Obama up 1 in Ohio in a +9 Dem sample. In 2008 Ohio was about +5 Dem.
See, there's your mistake. Pollsters predict the future based on the future intent of people who haven't acted.
I'm a historian. I predict the future based on evidence of things that have already occurred. What evidence do we have? Polls are not evidence of what has happened or even what will happen. They are badly flawed manipulative tools to tell whatever story someone wants to tell.
On the other hand, we have REAL absentee ballot requests to compare with 08. We have REAL 08 numbers and REAL 2012 numbers. We have REAL early voting numbers.
In all the REAL evidence we have, the Ds are massively down from 08, the Rs are substantially up. The Ds are nowhere here what they need to win OH.
So, the poster is right. I think this is beyond Bush's 04 numbers in OH, probably around a 200,000 R victory.
I believe they’re doing this because they’ve done the same electoral college analysis I have. If Romney wins FL, VA and CO, but lose OH, he needs one of the below combinations of swing states to make up for OH...
1. PA or MI
2. NV, IA and NH
3. NV, IA and 1 EV from Maine
4. WI and any one of the above states
PA looks so desirable as an easy substitute for OH, but McCain/Palin tried extremely hard for it and failed miserably. I think they should focus heavily on NV, IA, NH and WI. That gives them 2 paths to victory.