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Berg Leads Heitkamp in New N.D. Poll
Hotline On Call ^ | 10/20/12 | By Julie Sobel

Posted on 10/20/2012 7:53:14 PM PDT by randita

Berg Leads Heitkamp in New N.D. Poll

By Julie Sobel

October 20, 2012 | 11:35 a.m.

After months of polls showing a dead heat in North Dakota's Senate race, a new survey conducted for Forum Communications Co. shows GOP Rep. Rick Berg breaking out with a 10-point lead.

The poll, conducted by Essman/Research, has Berg leading former Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, 50 percent to 40 percent. Ten percent of respondents say they remain undecided.

Heitkamp has a slight advantage among independents (44 percent to 41 percent for Berg), while 15 percent remain undecided.

"I think the biggest takeaway from the poll would be the independents," said Deborah Stearns, vice president and marketing research director for Essman/Research, citing the 15 percent that remain undecided. "I think the independents could have an impact on that race."

There is a gender gap in the poll, with Berg getting 57 percent support from male voters to Heitkamp's 35 percent. The Democrat led among female votes, but by a much smaller margin: 45 percent prefer her while 42 percent support Berg.

A Mason-Dixon poll conducted in early October showed a tied race, with both candidates pulling in 47 percent support.

The North Dakota Senate race has always been considered uphill for Democrats, given the state's red tilt and Mitt Romney's advantage over President Obama -- but Heitkamp is also a strong recruit for the Democrats, and poll after poll has indicated a tight contest. In fact, the poll indicates that just 19 percent of likely voters identify as Democrats, far fewer than the 35 percent who say they are Republicans and the 42 percent who are independents. The memorandum states that, "Although the polling was conducted through random digit dialing, the poll skewed toward Independents and Republicans."

For their part, the Heitkamp campaign criticized the poll for showing "a sample with a partisan makeup completely at odds with North Dakota exit polling and historical trends." Democrats made up 28 percent of the electorate in 2008, according to exit polls, while 38 percent of voters said they were Republicans. North Dakota does not have partisan voter registration. The poll was conducted Oct. 12-15, and surveyed 500 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

Updated at 11:50 with Heitkamp campaign statement. Polling editor Steven Shepard contributed to this post.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: North Dakota
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; berg; heitcamp; nd2012; northdakota; ussenate
About time this race started Berg with a good lead. With Romney holding a 20 point lead in ND, it seemed incredulous that Heitcamp could win.
1 posted on 10/20/2012 7:53:22 PM PDT by randita
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To: Clintonfatigued; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; no dems; Kaslin; perfect_rovian_storm; ...

Good poll for Berg - finally.


2 posted on 10/20/2012 7:54:10 PM PDT by randita
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To: randita

Will never understand voting for Romney & a Democrat for senate.
Wondering How many states will Romney win but a Democrat will be elected Senator. Time for Romney to address this?


3 posted on 10/20/2012 8:03:20 PM PDT by SMGFan (SMGfan is not "Sub Machine Gun" fan)
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To: randita

I guess since Romney leads by 20 RCP considers this a “lean Romney”, right? - sarc


4 posted on 10/20/2012 8:04:10 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SMGFan

Heller is winning by ten yet he cannot drag Romney over the finish line in NV.


5 posted on 10/20/2012 8:05:40 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: randita

Indeed it is a good poll at last for Berg. That ones in the bag. Time to go back to work securing VA.


6 posted on 10/20/2012 8:12:00 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: SMGFan

Of course, by that reckoning, Reagan should’ve had 98 Republican Senators in 1984. He had 53 (and more than a few were anything but Conservative).


7 posted on 10/20/2012 8:14:23 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: randita

GO Rick Berg!!!!

8 posted on 10/20/2012 8:20:03 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: randita

I sent him some money and I voted for him


9 posted on 10/20/2012 8:24:10 PM PDT by South Dakota (shut up and drill)
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To: randita

Heitkamp is a Democrat running to shore up Harry Reid’s Senate.

If Heitkamp wins that is a vote against the XL Pipeline that runs though North Dakota.

“SUPPORT THE XL PIPELINE, BUILD WITH BERG!”


10 posted on 10/20/2012 8:30:54 PM PDT by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: South Dakota; All

Big GOP oversample, though doubt we will lose.


11 posted on 10/20/2012 8:33:49 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: randita

CF, thoughts?


12 posted on 10/20/2012 9:07:19 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: Perdogg

Romney coattails ping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


13 posted on 10/20/2012 10:32:48 PM PDT by ping jockey (Candy Crowley IS A DUMBASS)
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To: InterceptPoint

My parents who live in ND, stated if all the oil people who moved their the last few years vote, it will be a landslide..


14 posted on 10/21/2012 3:04:50 AM PDT by scbison
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To: randita

Any poll that goes against a demo-rat is criticized as partisan. Of course, this is not the case when polls over sample demo-rats.

JoMa


15 posted on 10/21/2012 4:40:48 AM PDT by joma89
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To: SMGFan

I can’t understand it either. Anyone who would caucus with Harry Reid will be an opponent of Romney.

When a Republican is president, the drive by media constantly harps on the concept that people like and want divided government.

When a Democrat is president, you don’t hear word one about divided government.


16 posted on 10/21/2012 5:39:40 AM PDT by randita
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To: randita; All

Exactly!


17 posted on 10/21/2012 4:10:32 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The Glove don't fit, but it's better than a burqa.)
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To: SMGFan; randita; fieldmarshaldj; Perdogg; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy

One state is certain to go big for Romney and reelect it’s rat Senator in a landslide. West Virginia. The rat is “popular” and the Republican candidate is a multiple time loser including losing in 2010 after leading in the polls.

Missouri if Akin loses.

Florida is a possibility. I think Romney will take the state but Mack Jr. may run behind him.

Close contents in VA, OH and PA may split but I think it’s more likely they go the same way.

On the flip side Scott Brown has 50% chance to win, Romney can’t win MA.

NV, Heller will win, even if Romney does not win the state.

CT, Linda M has a good chance to win, Romney will not win the state unless he’s winning a huge landslide.

And Hawaii, half a chance at a GOP upset with Linda Lingle in Obama’s safest state.


18 posted on 10/21/2012 6:47:06 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy
Made a few adjustments based on the latest polls. Flake is a disappointment and will have to ride in with Romney. Kudos to those Republicans who are battling uphill in lean or safe Dem. states (Smith, McMahon, Brown). After a rough start, Mandel is gaining ground. I think Mandel will mirror Romney as Sherrod Brown doesn't seem to be that popular. Thompson and Mack should be doing much better. MO is such a shame - should be well under control and it's a toss up at best. The witch may live to fight another day, but hopefully she'll fade into obscurity in minority status.

WV and WA are lost causes. I think I'll just drop them off the list. Maybe if the GOP takes the Senate, Manchin can be courted but they better not give him some kind of plum assignment in return. Just give him a seat at the table along with any other first time GOP Senate winners, period.

 

10/21/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win

State

Republican Candidate Democrat/IND Candidate Hold OR Gain
NE* Debra Fischer Bob Kerrey GAIN
IN* Richard Mourdock Joe Donnelly HOLD
ND* Rick Berg Heidi Heitcamp GAIN
WI* Tommy Thompson Tammy Baldwin GAIN
NV Dean Heller+ Shelley Berkley HOLD
AZ* Jeff Flake Richard Carmona HOLD
MT Denny Rehberg Jon Tester GAIN
MA Scott Brown+ Elizabeth Warren HOLD
VA* George Allen Tim Kaine GAIN
OH Josh Mandel Sherrod Brown+ GAIN
FL Connie Mack Bill Nelson+ GAIN
CT* Linda McMahon Chris Murphy GAIN
PA Tom Smith Bob Casey+ GAIN
MO Todd Akin Claire McCaskill+ GAIN
MI Pete Hoekstra Debbie Stabenow+ GAIN
NM* Heather Wilson Martin Heinrich GAIN
NJ Joe Kyrillos Bob Menendez+ GAIN
HI* Linda Lingle Mazie Hirono GAIN
ME* Charles Summers Angus King (Ind.) HOLD
WV John Raese Joe Manchin+ GAIN
WA Michael Baumgartner Maria Cantwell+ GAIN
*Open Seat          +Incumbent  

 

19 posted on 10/21/2012 7:04:23 PM PDT by randita
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To: Impy

what is this talk of Minnesota if Amy Klobuchar will be re elected?

I have been singing same song since 1984.
Hope we do not the same garbage results again.

Thank the people for support of GOP President, but why are they such idiots?
Good ticket splitting helps when GOP Senator elected bad if Dem Sen elected.


20 posted on 10/21/2012 7:11:28 PM PDT by SMGFan (SMGfan is not "Sub Machine Gun" fan)
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To: SMGFan

MN Senate is safe D.

GOP candidate is a Paulbot State Rep. FAIL.


21 posted on 10/21/2012 7:26:21 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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