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Gallup 10/21: R-52/O-45
Gallup ^ | Gallup

Posted on 10/21/2012 10:03:52 AM PDT by tatown

Romney-52 Obama-45

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; obama; romney
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Back up by 7!
1 posted on 10/21/2012 10:03:55 AM PDT by tatown
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To: tatown

Let’s keep our fingers crossed - looking good!


2 posted on 10/21/2012 10:04:56 AM PDT by onevoter
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To: tatown

Let’s keep our fingers crossed - looking good!


3 posted on 10/21/2012 10:04:56 AM PDT by onevoter
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To: tatown

When does Gallup change the weight?


4 posted on 10/21/2012 10:05:27 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer; LS; Perdogg; nhwingut; HamiltonJay

Ping!

Back up by 7. Romney up 3 with RV’s as well now!


5 posted on 10/21/2012 10:06:28 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown; LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; nhwingut; Perdogg

Wow! Did not expect that. I expected to see 50-46 today as Gallup succumbed to pressure

Gallup even has Romney up in Registered voters

Someone .. somewhere... is getting spanked...


6 posted on 10/21/2012 10:07:22 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Perdogg

Gallup doesn’t weight. They call huge numbers over 7 days...some 3500 likely voters. They allow the voters to self-identify and the party id has trends just like the vote.


7 posted on 10/21/2012 10:07:22 AM PDT by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: tatown

Did I see that the Ras Swing State poll is now 4-points now?


8 posted on 10/21/2012 10:08:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: tatown

It appears Mr. Gallup wasn’t cowed by Axelhead’s threats.


9 posted on 10/21/2012 10:08:47 AM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: tatown

10 posted on 10/21/2012 10:09:37 AM PDT by dead (It ain't over until the phone lady sings.)
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To: tatown

Keep it up, Barry. Muppets and binders.


11 posted on 10/21/2012 10:11:26 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: tatown

No one in the history of the Gallup Poll has ever lost the election for president if they’re above 50% after mid-October.


12 posted on 10/21/2012 10:12:01 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: tatown

Up 7 with 16 days to go!!

Not to get cocky, but Obama needs a Romney scandal or epic collapse in the debate to win.

Even Chuck Todd and Jon Martin said there is potential of a Romney landslide. Woo hoo...

Time for some football!


13 posted on 10/21/2012 10:12:27 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: tatown

That loud boom was Eric the Holder’s head exploding.


14 posted on 10/21/2012 10:12:49 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Get the transcript Candy! - Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: tatown

shhhh...it is really 56-41.


15 posted on 10/21/2012 10:12:58 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: tatown

Is this 5 or 6 days, it’s been at 52 or 51 to 45?


16 posted on 10/21/2012 10:14:05 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: tatown
So much for the "Comeback Kid" meme that some of us feared the mainstream media/pollsters were setting us up for. If the polls were being cooked to show an "Obama surge", it would have had to have begun days ago, right after the second debate.

For an incumbent president to be 7 points behind (and at 45%) in a major poll just two weeks before the election is devastating. While Gallup is still an outlier, the other polling outfits who have this race a little closer also have Obama down around 45% - not a good place for an incumbent president to be just two weeks out.

I do not believe tomorrow night's final debate will have much material impact on the race. The American voters saw what they needed to see on the first debate. All they needed to see was that Romney is a man who can handle the job - mission accomplished.

17 posted on 10/21/2012 10:14:25 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Signalman
No one in the history of the Gallup Poll has ever lost the election for president if they’re above 50% after mid-October.

And the calendar is on the verge of moving from "mid" to late October.
18 posted on 10/21/2012 10:15:12 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: tatown

How can this be squared with the Rass poll, which is also respected?


19 posted on 10/21/2012 10:17:20 AM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

That loud boom was Eric the Holder’s head exploding


I’d like a visual on that!


20 posted on 10/21/2012 10:18:17 AM PDT by DefeatCorruption
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To: pabianice

Rasmussen is oversampling D’s by 4 or 5. I think there is a good chance Ras slowly moves that back to parity over the next week or so. Watch for Romney’s lead to grow...


21 posted on 10/21/2012 10:18:35 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown

22 posted on 10/21/2012 10:19:44 AM PDT by Red Badger (Why yes, that was crude and uncalled for......That's why I said it..............)
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To: pabianice

I’ll give that a try. Rass is weighting Dems up 2 to 4 points. And adjusting calls to those weights. (Even though Rass’s own surveys show the GOP with higher party ID than the Dems.) Gallup is calling likely voters in far greater numbers and takes what people say as their ID as the real party allocation. So, Rass is temping down the potential surge while Gallup is capturing it. That’s at least my theory. Maybe someone else can do better.


23 posted on 10/21/2012 10:20:10 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: nhwingut
Not to get cocky, but Obama needs a Romney scandal or epic collapse in the debate to win.

Maybe they'll discover that he took off his special underwear while making love to his mistress.

24 posted on 10/21/2012 10:20:14 AM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham (Laws against sodomy are honored in the breech.)
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To: tatown

We should be careful of this number for two reasons...1) it may be somewhat optimistic...2) more importantly,the only numbers that’ll matter until 11/6 are the ones coming from swing states.


25 posted on 10/21/2012 10:20:37 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: BlueStateRightist


26 posted on 10/21/2012 10:20:46 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: nhwingut

Even Bob Beckel said last week that, if these numbers are accurate, it’s over.


27 posted on 10/21/2012 10:22:19 AM PDT by RoosterRedux (Obama: "If you've got a business -- you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen.")
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To: tatown

Let’s give Obama the Big Bird!


28 posted on 10/21/2012 10:23:21 AM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham (Laws against sodomy are honored in the breech.)
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To: tatown; Ravi; LS; Perdogg; nhwingut; InterceptPoint

Actually I have a theory that Rasmussen is waiting for the final debate to reduce his “positive D” sample

Yesterday I had told my wife that I suspected Rasmussen would do it this way

SAT: R:49 O:48
SUN: R:49 O:47
MON: R:40 0:47 or even 46

We shall see. Obviously my prediction for today came true.

One thing that I feel is holding Mr. Rasmussen back is that he takes GREAT pride in stating that his polls do not “fluctuate” and that everything is “steady” as she goes. Read his commentary and he makes it a point of stating that “Nothing has changed since August” and that these minor swings are basically noise and the race is “remarkably steady”

So, it is not in his interest to show huge gains as that spoils his narrative. I suspect he will move one point a day, either taking one off President Obama or adding one to Gov. Romney

We shall see....


29 posted on 10/21/2012 10:23:28 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Perdogg
When does Gallup change the weight?

When they feel the left won't riot over a 60-40 results favoring Romney? ; D

30 posted on 10/21/2012 10:24:37 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: tatown; LS; Ravi; nhwingut; InterceptPoint; Perdogg

Quick edit: I meant

MON: R:50 0:47 or even 46


31 posted on 10/21/2012 10:24:57 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: RoosterRedux

I wish I was on AOSHQ - I’d call Beckel the name I refer to him in my living room. That Fat Liberal ****...


32 posted on 10/21/2012 10:25:52 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

In your scenario, Romney will drop 7 pts. in one day? Or was this a typo?


33 posted on 10/21/2012 10:26:11 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I agree with your theory.

Rasmussen is a business man first and foremost. The best way to retain eyes (both R & D’s) is to keep it as a horserace for as long as possible. Once the final debate is in the can, there will be nothing left for Ras to point to as a possibly inflection point IMO.


34 posted on 10/21/2012 10:26:18 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: Signalman

Ok, forget it. I just read post 31.


35 posted on 10/21/2012 10:27:01 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Signalman

Sorry! It was a typo. I meant:

MON: R:40 0:47 or even 46


36 posted on 10/21/2012 10:27:10 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Rassmussen is already doing that with the swing state poll, which is at 50 R, 46 O. For months the swing state daily poll was almost identical to the national one. Now is much more Republican. I think that may be part of his move in the direction that accurately captures how people intend to vote. The Obama surge after the DNC convention had him moving the other way, IIRC..


37 posted on 10/21/2012 10:28:10 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Argh!!!!!

I meant

MON: R:50 0:47 or even 46

COFFEE!!! I DEMAND COFFEE!!!
38 posted on 10/21/2012 10:28:33 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer
MON: R:40 0:47 or even 46

Presumably you meant "R:50."

39 posted on 10/21/2012 10:28:33 AM PDT by BfloGuy (Teach a man to fish and you lose a Democratic voter.)
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To: BfloGuy

Yes I did.

My fingers have just gotten disconnected from my brain.

I demand a refund from someone...


40 posted on 10/21/2012 10:29:22 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I agree... Scott has mentioned the steadiness of his poll several times, especially when Chuck Todd called his poll “slop.”

His poll has really been steady as you go (Obama at 46-48A 49-51D - and the race split). We liked the steadiness when Romney was down in the other polls. Now we hate the steadiness when Romney is surging elsewhere. It’s ironic.

With that said, he needs to move that sample a bit to reflect his part id survey (right now at R+2.6).


41 posted on 10/21/2012 10:31:04 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Gay State Conservative

I think Romney gets every state now classified as “too close to call,” and will surprise with at least a couple of states now “leaning Obama.”

The popular vote will be a blow-out, with a very large Electoral College advantage, but not as large as would typically be seen with such a large popular vote advantage. There’s no accounting for the idiocy of (the majority of) Californians, New Yorkers, Marylanders, et al.


42 posted on 10/21/2012 10:32:37 AM PDT by rashley (Rashley)
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To: tatown

>>Back up by 7!<<

Well beyond the margin of error.

Don’t let up! Don’t let the MSM steal this win!


43 posted on 10/21/2012 10:32:57 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (We can’t just leave it (food choice) up to the parents. -- moochele obozo 2/12/2012 (cnsnews))
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To: DefeatCorruption
That loud boom was Eric the Holder’s head exploding
I’d like a visual on that!


44 posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:21 AM PDT by freedumb2003 (We can’t just leave it (food choice) up to the parents. -- moochele obozo 2/12/2012 (cnsnews))
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To: Mr Ramsbotham
Speaking of scandals... what ever happened to Sean Hannity's really BIG news that was about to break on Obama's fundraising???

Very dangerous for people on our side to make others on our side think that something's coming that never does. Those others may have had something else they were investigating or looking into but quit thinking that the so called "about to be announced" bomb shells had to do with what they were looking into when it may not have had anything to do with it.

45 posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:21 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer; MinuteGal

“Wow! Did not expect that. I expected to see 50-46 today as Gallup succumbed to pressure
Gallup even has Romney up in Registered voters
Someone .. somewhere... is getting spanked...”

I see this as just the opposite. I think this is the revenge of Gallup. I think they are real PO’d with what Axelrod and his justice dept goons have done with their phony lawsuit against Gallup, and Gallup also realizes that the best way to have this lawsuit go nowhere is to have Romney and the Pubs in office, not the bully Obama Admin who will proceed with the lawsuit to punish Gallup for having the temerity to try to do their job honestly. At this point in time, two weeks before the election, it is Gallup that has the power, not Obama and his minions.

All Gallup has to do is be exceedingly honest in their polling, weight it properly without the typical extra stone on the Obama side of the scale, and Obama becomes toast. Voila, this very influential poll gives great hope and inspiration to the Pubs, helps to show Independents that they will be on the winning side voting for Romney, and depresses the heck out of the Dems. Gallup strikes back by posting truthful polls, not Dem influenced lies. Hah, payback is the pits, Dems, isn’t it?


46 posted on 10/21/2012 10:36:40 AM PDT by flaglady47 (When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
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To: tatown

Bob Beckel said on Fox the other night if these numbers are accurate “it’s over”.


47 posted on 10/21/2012 10:38:37 AM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Yes, I think we will see Romney break 50 in the RAS poll this week. All the national polls tell us at this point, is the general direction of the election.

I think we have seen a very fundamental shift in the election the last 2 weeks. Not a bounce. This is significant and sustained. Regardless of the poll or the actual numbers, every single one has shown a significant move to R&R. And this includes the KOS/PPP and other lefty polls.

You can tell even more by watching the campaigns. Where are they focusing, spending time and money?

Even the MSM is starting to print stories about the very real possibility of a Romney win. It’s started as a small trickle the last few days, but you are seeing it more each day. What will Romney’s priorities, who will be in his cabinet.

R&R has the look of a winning campaign. Just like O/B had it in 2008.

If there is not a fundamental shift 2-3 days after the final debate, you will see an even more massive shift to get on the winning team.


48 posted on 10/21/2012 10:38:55 AM PDT by gswilder
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To: tsowellfan
what ever happened to Sean Hannity's really BIG news that was about to break on Obama's fundraising???

He discussed it. And it is a big scandal. Unfortunately the MSM has ignored it.

It has to do with Obama allowing supporters to donate without implementing security checks at his website (i.e. 3 digit CC code, matching zips, etc).

Check out Drudge. There is a new story via NY Post.
49 posted on 10/21/2012 10:38:55 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SamAdams76

Tomorrow’s debate goes against Monday night football. Only political junkies and a few fence sitters will bother to tune in. Not likely to be a game changer


50 posted on 10/21/2012 10:40:15 AM PDT by Truth is a Weapon (Truth, it hurts so good.)
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