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IBD Daily poll +5.7% Obama (but was only 1.7% yesterday)![Dem +7%]
IBD/TIPP ^ | 10/21/12 | IBD/TIPP

Posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:32 AM PDT by Siegfried X

IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll

Day 13: Oct. 21, 2012

Obama: +5.7 Obama 47.9% | Romney 42.2%

Polling period: 10/15 - 10/20

Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%

Sample Size: 913 likely voters (identified from 1044 registered voters with party affiliation of 37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind.)

Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples

(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; ibd
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I post this just to show it is a wildly fluctuating, unreliable poll. The differences between the two candidates over the past 3 days are:

Obama +0.5% 10/19/12 Obama +1.7% 10/20/12 Obama +5.7% 10/21/12

Those are huge jumps, especially considering that 6 daily polls are averaged

1 posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:42 AM PDT by Siegfried X
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: Siegfried X

if memory serves me, this was the one poll that showed McCain with a 2pt advantage over obozo as we entered the closing stages of the ‘08 election day...i remember it because Freepers were clutching on to this poll while raging on Rasmussen...


3 posted on 10/21/2012 10:37:42 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Siegfried X

And the Dems are really doing well. I think we’ll get a new majority in the House.

/Sarcasm!! (Just in case there are any nervous nellies out there.)


4 posted on 10/21/2012 10:38:31 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: Siegfried X

Ds are oversampled by 7+ and Obama is supposedly up by 5+. But he is still at 47% - bad news for an incumbent. He cannot get a majority no matter how much friendly pollsters “fix” it for him.

Its over.


5 posted on 10/21/2012 10:39:44 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: God luvs America

“if memory serves me, this was the one poll that showed McCain with a 2pt advantage over obozo as we entered the closing stages of the ‘08 election day...i remember it because Freepers were clutching on to this poll while raging on Rasmussen...”

Fantastic memory you have!


6 posted on 10/21/2012 10:39:54 AM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: Siegfried X

Pure garbage. It has Obama leading among men! Also it has Romney down 6 yet leading Indy’s by 6? HAHA


7 posted on 10/21/2012 10:40:48 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: Siegfried X; All

found it....i was right in content but wrong w/the numbers...

IBD/TIPP: Dramatic McCain Shift – 2 Point Race

http://www.bucksright.com/ibdtipp-dramatic-mccain-shift-2-point-race-2178


8 posted on 10/21/2012 10:41:02 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Siegfried X

This poll is junk. It’s such a far outlier, it’s got to be a 1 in 1000 fluke.


9 posted on 10/21/2012 10:43:19 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: entropy12

found it....i was right in content but wrong w/the numbers...

IBD/TIPP: Dramatic McCain Shift – 2 Point Race

http://www.bucksright.com/ibdtipp-dramatic-mccain-shift-2-point-race-2178


10 posted on 10/21/2012 10:43:52 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: Siegfried X
The problem isn't the methodology, nor is there a model being applied to the data ~ it's the sampled population ~ you call 10,000 people and you will end up with about 910 old enough and willing enough to answer a few questions.

With CALLER ID in general use what this means is the ONLY people responding to the poll are those who want to respond. That is NO LONGER A RANDOM SAMPLE!

My judgment is this isn't a reliable or meaningful poll. Ignore it. You can ignore all the others too. They are all like that according to PEW.

11 posted on 10/21/2012 10:44:10 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Siegfried X
Obama: +5.7 Obama 47.9% | Romney 42.2%

ROTFL! Yeah! Right.

12 posted on 10/21/2012 10:46:49 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Get the transcript Candy! - Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: Siegfried X

Dem +7 but O is only up 5.7. He is losing the independent vote.


13 posted on 10/21/2012 10:47:05 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: God luvs America
if memory serves me, this was the one poll that showed McCain with a 2pt advantage over obozo as we entered the closing stages of the ‘08 election day...i remember it because Freepers were clutching on to this poll while raging on Rasmussen...

Correct. And are now overcompensating the other way.

14 posted on 10/21/2012 10:49:25 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Siegfried X

Probably taken in downtown Oakland.


15 posted on 10/21/2012 10:54:11 AM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham (Laws against sodomy are honored in the breech.)
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To: goldstategop
A sample is what it is (although that doesn't matter since polling doesn't matter either) so it isn't like someone sits down and tries to call 7% too many Democrats.

The whole point of sampling is to achieve something reflective of the average opinion of a far larger group ~ and you attempt to do that with a random sample.

If you subsequently adjust your random sample to reflect what you think you want, it is no longer a random sample poll ~ it's just an auger ~ rather like the ones the Roman's looked at.

16 posted on 10/21/2012 10:54:59 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Siegfried X

When a poll shows this much fluctuation without cause, it’s not worthy of publishing.

IBD is not doing anyone any favors with this poll.

You could get the odd Republican out there that would read this and think it’s all over for Romney.

It’s just nutty to publish this rubbish.

Not trying to give you a hard time Siegried X. IBD is exercising journalistic malpractice here IMO.


17 posted on 10/21/2012 10:55:06 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Fooled folks once didn't you. Revenge is spelled, "VOTE RED". You're going down donkeys...)
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To: DoughtyOne

IBD is included in Real Clear Politics averages, which is why I posted here.


18 posted on 10/21/2012 10:56:19 AM PDT by Siegfried X
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To: Mr Ramsbotham

Liberal pollster that doesn’t want credibility. If you believe as he does - that Obama can win without independents, you’re whistling in the dark.

There’s no way he’s leading with white men and independents. Apparently, the guys who took this poll missed that memo!


19 posted on 10/21/2012 10:57:11 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Siegfried X

Attempt to cancel Gallup Poll effect on RCP avg of polls.


20 posted on 10/21/2012 10:57:26 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: All


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21 posted on 10/21/2012 10:58:47 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Siegfried X

A four-point jump for Obama??? Yeah.. sure.

Let me guess.. 0bama also has 5-point leads in all the battleground states, too... especially Ohio, where he`s leading by 12.

Even the Daily Kos poll on Friday had RR up by 4.


22 posted on 10/21/2012 11:01:13 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: goldstategop
A sample is what it is (although that doesn't matter since polling doesn't matter either) so it isn't like someone sits down and tries to call 7% too many Democrats.

The whole point of sampling is to achieve something reflective of the average opinion of a far larger group ~ and you attempt to do that with a random sample.

If you subsequently adjust your random sample to reflect what you think you want, it is no longer a random sample poll ~ it's just an auger ~ rather like the ones the Roman's looked at.

23 posted on 10/21/2012 11:01:32 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

The party weighting in this poll is pre set to 37 Dem, 30 GOP. It has been this way every single day since its inception.


24 posted on 10/21/2012 11:02:43 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Siegfried X

It appears IBD are Obama prostitutes with the results of this poll using far more democrats then republicans.


25 posted on 10/21/2012 11:03:05 AM PDT by stockpirate (Slaves to the collective! SCOTUS is just as corrupt as congress. IMPEACH ROBERTS!)
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To: muawiyah

I can’t remember the last time I bothered with responding to a call about politics. If there is any sign it is a “poll” or from a candidate, I either don’t pick up, or hang up. I have no idea what the political breakdown is of people who answer telephone polls, but I’d bet a lot of Republicans act like I do.


26 posted on 10/21/2012 11:05:43 AM PDT by Mr Rogers
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To: stockpirate

Any poll that gives someone a 1.7% lead one day and then a 5.7% lead the next day has something seriously wrong with it.


27 posted on 10/21/2012 11:06:25 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: Siegfried X

And Zero is getting 22% of conservatives according to this poll...yeah right...what a joke...


28 posted on 10/21/2012 11:07:39 AM PDT by usafa92 (Conservative in Jersey)
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To: Siegfried X

Relax it’s an outlier. Besides TIPP will have to adjust their samples next week.


29 posted on 10/21/2012 11:11:52 AM PDT by princeofdarkness ( Nobama. No more. No way. November 2012.)
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To: stockpirate

Far from it, read their editorials which are also posted here every evening. This is a poll from TIPP that they use.


30 posted on 10/21/2012 11:12:38 AM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: Siegfried X

Investor’s Business Daily doesn’t appear to know who their audience is—Yet another reason why I don’t subscribe.


31 posted on 10/21/2012 11:14:16 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Re-distribute my work ethic, not my wealth.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

With technology changing the means of polling i.e., fewer landlines, caller ID and I suppose people just not wanting to “play” any more — when do you think the tipping point is as far as reliability in most any poll. This election? 4 years from now/


32 posted on 10/21/2012 11:15:33 AM PDT by bunster
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To: muawiyah

Please see Post #32 — I meant to send it to you.


33 posted on 10/21/2012 11:18:19 AM PDT by bunster
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To: Siegfried X

Romney only up 1 in the South????

LOL!

What did they poll Austin and Charlotte?

Romney is up double digits in most every southern state, and he’s only leading Obama by one? Right!

Plus it has a tiny sample of 913 voters - which is about 130 phone calls per day which would equal about 2 people per state.

The bummer is that this cancels out the Gallup poll in RCP. Which I am sure is the intended purpose.


34 posted on 10/21/2012 11:19:21 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Siegfried X; a fool in paradise

Don’t get hung up on the internals, you worry warts. Check the Gallup poll today. Check other polls. All of ‘em “scientific”. All of them garbage. Call 1024 people yourself and conduct a poll, it’ll be as valid as any of them. ANY!


35 posted on 10/21/2012 11:19:50 AM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: nhwingut

Probably Austin and Asheville. Romney has the South sewn up. All he needs is Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, & Pennsylvania will be icing on the cake.


36 posted on 10/21/2012 11:32:49 AM PDT by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: Siegfried X

Siegfried X, I appreciate the fact that you brought this to our attention. It was out there, so I’m not faulting you.

It’s just so wildly fluctuating, that it means nothing other than that IBD seems careless. I think a commentary on their figures is warranted. That’s all.

Take care.


37 posted on 10/21/2012 11:35:19 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Fooled folks once didn't you. Revenge is spelled, "VOTE RED". You're going down donkeys...)
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To: Siegfried X; Perdogg; LS; Ravi; tatown; nhwingut; InterceptPoint

The TIPP poll was produced SOLELY for the MSM and RCP average narrative

I can understand a poll being +-2 of any other poll. For example, if you look at the cross tabs today on the Rasmussen poll, he has a R52 O48 number once he removes the undecideds. Well that is not so far off the R52 045 number that Gallup has, as Gallup has a 3% MOE

But to come and say that R is at 42% as TIPP said is unbelievable. In fact it is downright dishonest


38 posted on 10/21/2012 11:41:42 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Pre-first debate, having Romney in the low 40s would be more believable than now.


39 posted on 10/21/2012 11:47:30 AM PDT by goodolemr
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Sure seems deliberately aimed at manipulating the RCP averages.


40 posted on 10/21/2012 11:47:35 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SoftwareEngineer

John McCain got 47% of the nationwide popular vote in 2008. I can’t where Romney got less than that if he was losing.

The state of the race is such that now its effectively his to lose. When you look like the winner, people’s expectations shift accordingly.


41 posted on 10/21/2012 11:48:58 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Lacey2

“Attempt to cancel Gallup Poll effect on RCP avg of polls.”

Exactly.


42 posted on 10/21/2012 12:03:24 PM PDT by flaglady47 (When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
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To: Siegfried X

This is funny stuff! Obama wins the MALE vote by 1 point! I pretty much stopped reading there.


43 posted on 10/21/2012 12:07:19 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Siegfried X

The margin of error is due to the small sample size.

When the candidates are more than that much apart, the poll is essentially meaningless.

Averaging uncertainty gives more uncertainty, not better numbers.

What matters is how many normal people get out and vote.


44 posted on 10/21/2012 12:26:46 PM PDT by I want the USA back
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To: Signalman
Not neccesarily. Not considering the +/- 3.5% margin of error. And the fact that this is a close election (well closer than the last one) also tends to cause some fluctuation.

Its not over yet.

45 posted on 10/21/2012 12:49:11 PM PDT by Vanders9
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To: I want the USA back
What matters is how many normal people get out and vote.

It also depends on how many abnormal people get out and vote too. And how many illegals. And how many "rise from the dead". You know, there's lots of tricks and the dems know them all.

46 posted on 10/21/2012 12:51:32 PM PDT by Vanders9
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To: Siegfried X
Polling period: 10/15 - 10/20 Margin of Error: +/- 3.5% Sample Size: 913 likely voters (identified from 1044 registered voters with party affiliation of 37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind.) Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz29y7ZbTPX

7 point Dem oversample, garbage poll.

47 posted on 10/21/2012 1:51:24 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Siegfried X

Rational sample +3 Dems would put this 46 R, 43 O which would match up pretty closely to Rasmussen.


48 posted on 10/21/2012 1:53:14 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Lacey2

Exactly. Such garbage.


49 posted on 10/21/2012 1:53:21 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: bunster

We hit the tipping point about 15 years ago ~ there is no way this method can recover.


50 posted on 10/21/2012 3:01:11 PM PDT by muawiyah
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