Skip to comments.Updated polls in 10 key U.S. Senate races [Dems hold 52-48]
Posted on 10/21/2012 11:06:49 AM PDT by JediJones
Based on the polls and projections below, as well as polls in other contests not listed here, the Democrats are projected to keep their majority in the Senate by a 52-48 margin.
Massachusetts (D pickup) Real Clear Politics Average: Warran 48.0%, Brown 46.3%
Missouri (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: McCaskill 45.8%, Akin 43.5%
Connecticut (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Murphy 47.0%, McMahon 42.7%
Nevada (R hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Heller 45.8%, Berkley 41.0%
Virginia (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Kaine 47.6%, Allen 45.4%
Wisconsin (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Baldwin 48.4%, Thompson 46.0%
Indiana (R hold) Most Recent Poll: Mourdock 47%, Donnelly 42% (Rasmussen 10/11)
Montana (R pickup) Real Clear Politics Average: Rehberg 46.3%, Tester 46.0%
Maine (I pickup!) Real Clear Politics Average: King 45.5%, Summers 31%, Dill 13.8%
North Dakota (R pickup) Real Clear Politics Average: Berg 48.5%, Heitkamp 43.5%
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
We need help in Massachusetts, Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, etc.
If its a close election, the Democrats are safe. These polls are all taken on the basis of the 2008 turnout model. I think they are off and if its a Romney blowout - Democrats are vulnerable in all but Deep Blue States. We could even see a few upsets in this election.
Let the Democrats think they have in the bag.
I agree with the people that think whoever wins the WH will also win the Senate.
Despite early foot-in-mouth disease I still think Akin can win in Missouri. What is happening in MA is beyond my comprehension. Montana looks it is going to be real squeeker, but hopefully there and in Virginia Romney will provide some coat-tails. A 50-50 Senate is probably the best one can hope for.
Please, Dear God, let these polls be wrong.
Even if Dems hold Senate and Pubs keep House, with a Romney win, all these Executive Orders can be undone and he can do a few Obama-workarounds for a change......
He can also work to have agreeable Dem Senators to not vote for Reid and send that SOB back to Nevada.
People do not be ignorant..
Not on the list.
I’m sure the liberal base will be hitting the Senate Dems hard to block absolutely everything Romney wants to do once that is their one outlet to attack Republicans.
The Romney administration will be off to a very bad start if he can’t repeal Obamacare.
In Mass. Warren is a fake indian and real communist.
Miss. has Mccaskill with her corrupt husband selling favors out of the senate cafeteria.
Wisc. has baldwin, a classic liberal with vague ideas of fairness and strong supporter of Obamacare against well known ex governor.
I can’t find what all of this pearl clutching is about.. The states that are shone with a Dem lead are clearly within margin of error, or a bit old.. The MO is in our favor, and barring a massive snafu, I’m feeling comfortable..
I think Rs win VA and WI.
Boy, I agree with you on the MA. race. Elizabeth Warren is the phoniest, most unlikeable candidate but she seems to be pulling ahead. They counted Scott out against Coakley but I fear for this seat.
If MA vots for Warren, they are dumber than I thought.
I think they left Mandel off the list because Ohio is not as close a race as any of these listed here (except Maine). The Dem is winning it by more than 5 points.
Ohio (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Brown 47.8%, Mandel 42.2%
Yep, forgot OH. Rs will pick that one up also in addition to WI and VA.
interesting, I don’t see any dem hitting 50
Could be split ticket voting. A lot of that going on. Democrats are abandoning Obama and are not being seen within a mile of him.
They can make life difficult for Romney but if they have a near death experience at the polls, it will make them cooperative at least in the short term. Then again, its the House that appropriates and spends money.
Sherrod Brown is an Obama clone.
I think if R/R takes OH, Josh Mandel will win also.
We need to REMOVE McConnell. AND Boehner from leadership positions in Congress.
Its sort of incongruous for Obama to be behind Romney and theGOP behind in Congress.
Exactly! If we do not win the Senate, OBAMACARE is here to stay.
I'm talking about it, but the mods keep pulling my reports from the sidebar because I'm not a published journalist, as if that somehow gives me less credibility than Candy Crowley.
I have two more weekends of reports to go before the election.
Very good point!
Something occurs to me as I read all this polling stuff...
What ever happened to Charlie (I think it was Charlie) Cook of the “Cook Political Report? He used to be a big go- to guy on all this stuff and I haven’t heard a word from him this time around.
Any Cook sightings from anyone?
And Dodd-Frank, Sarbanes-Oxley, etc. Not to mention defense cuts, repeal of the Bush tax cuts. Romney's got up there in 2 debates and not once advocated for the idea that he'll need Republicans to win the Senate to pass most of his agenda. Instead he's advocated for "bipartisanship," which is just going to make those squishy independent voters split their ticket between Romney and the Democrat Senate candidate.
Cook seems to be predicting an Obama win.
This is BS!
Casey is an empty suit and Smith is the real deal.
He is doing great and I think he has a better chance then Mandel in OH.
PA may have gone DEM in the presidential elections, but don't forget they sent Rick Santorum to the Senate.
Without huge coattails I think Casey is in big trouble.
If Romney is elected without the senate he can still delay Obamacare year to year UNTIL we get the senate back.
The stupidity of the liberal voter can not be overestimated, it is an impossible task.
These polls are off. Real Clear Politics Average has a large amount of Dem shill polls factored in.
Massachusetts (Tossup) Poll within the margin of error, Warren is the worst candidate ever fielded for office anywhere. Liar, fraud, and commie.
Missouri (Leaning Repub) I don’t care what the polls say here, the fact that Akin (after being crucified as Satan by every media outlet) is close, tells me he will win. People in Missouri hate McCatskull.
Connecticut (Leaning Dem) Big caveat, if Romney wins the election, I think McMahon gets carried over the finish line.
Nevada (Dem hold) We’re unlikely to win this one, just like Connie in Florida.
Virginia (Tossup) Within margin of error, and Allen is a better candidate, with more enthusiasm behind him than the democrat.
Wisconsin (Tossup) If Romney wins, even if he doesn’t win Wisconsin, I see this seat going for us.
Indiana (Repub hold) In the bag.
Montana (Repub) No questions asked, this seat belongs to Rehburg. Tester is a POS.
Maine (Indie who will vote Dem) King will probably win, but there’s a chance, if we can peel liberal support away for Dill instead. Split the vote.
North Dakota (Repub) I didn’t think we’d win this one a few months ago, but it’s safe now
Romney would probably rather have a Dem Senate there so he can have an excuse not to repeal Obamacare, and simply “reform” it. Everyone knows he’s had to be dragged kicking and screaming all the way to commit to repealing Obamacare.
Not possible to over estimate the dumbness of Massachusetts.
That is a danger. We need to be on him & his team like white on rice as soon as he gets in the WH.
The incumbent is a Republican and is winning according to the original article.
RCP has Casey up 47 to 41.7 over Smith, but the polls are a little old and we’ve obviously heard some buzz lately that Smith is doing better. Another article says he also has 40% more money on hand than Casey, who’s been lazy and expected to sleepwalk to a victory.
True! But without winning the Senate, Repealing ObamaCare is OUT the window.
Harry Reid must be defeated.
Supposing Romney wins and a Donkey-controlled Senate obstructs everything he and the House propose, it should set up a GOP / Tea Party romp in 2014, particularly if the economy stagnates. Lots of Ds up for reelection then.
Misread that. We’ll hold Nevada then. But we won’t win Florida. Connie has fallen behind by a lot from what I’ve read.
Too bad we couldn’t get rid of dingy Reid.
How likely is it that we kick Reid out next time?
What’s going on in MA?
$$$$ & dirty tricks.
Republicans will win back the Senate. Count on at least a 52-48 margin, maybe more. Romney is going to win with MASSIVE coattails. He is going to sweep some who would otherwise lose over the finish line. Most of the polls are over-counting Democrats and under-counting Republicans. TT in Wisc., Mandel in Ohio, Allen in Va, and Smith in Pa will all be elected. If you want to help these predictions become reality, go to senateconservatives.com to donate $10 to the conservative Senate candidate of your choice.
What will the House split look like? I know they’re pulling some dirty re-districting in Illinois to kick out some Republicans. Bachmann looks to be staying. So does West. I think Hasner will win in Florida, and Harrington might just snare Washermouth’s seat.
I doubt that. Who took the blame in 2008 after Democrats controlled Congress for 2 years? People tend to blame the White House. That will be proven beyond a doubt again if Romney beats Obama but Dems keep the Senate. And the Dems, knowing that, will try to make life as miserable for Americans as possible over the next 2 years to pick up seats in 2014.
This year is a huge opportunity for getting Dems out of the Senate, with many more up for election than Repubs. If they can't succeed this year, it's a major failure for the party and I'm not sure if they'll have as good a map in 2014. And if Romney's first term fails because of Dem sabotage, Repubs will get slaughtered in 2016 on all fronts.
Easier said then done. Many businesses have cut the hours of their fulltime workers to make them part-timers because of ObamaCare. So, how exactly will this economy recover under a President Romney with the full implementation of ObamaCare?
The MSM and the Democrats will see to it that Romney and the Republicans own this Obama economy beginning on Jan 20th 2013.
As you may remember, On Jan 20 2001 The Clinton Recession which was not even acknowledged by the MSM and the democrats mysteriously appeared for the first time in the news as the "Bush Recession.
Romney will own the results of this economy due to the implementation of ObamaCare.
If Romney fails to bring back the economy of the United States he will be a one term President, Harry Reid, the democrats and the MSM will make certain of it.
Creating jobs under OBAMACARE? Unlikely.
Losing the Senate is NOT an option.
I have been saying the Senate race here is to close to call and the absentee votes will determine the election, nothing I have seen has changed my mind...
Fear not. Brown, Mccaskill, and Thompson will all win. The only one who could lose by a hair is Brown. But I believe Romney’s coattails will carry even Brown over the finish line. Obama will win Massachusetts by 58-41% but that is much better than McCain did four years ago(63-36). Brown will need nearly 25% of Obama voters to split their tickets and vote for him. I believe he will and can do it but it will be very close.
We need 50 seats with our VP. The problm is it looks like out senate hopes have collapsed somewhat. I though Allen had it in the bag along with Thompson in WI....now, not so much.
I misspoke. Akin will defeat Mccaskill.