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Updated polls in 10 key U.S. Senate races [Dems hold 52-48]
Examiner.com ^ | 10/21/2012 | Ryan Witt

Posted on 10/21/2012 11:06:49 AM PDT by JediJones

Based on the polls and projections below, as well as polls in other contests not listed here, the Democrats are projected to keep their majority in the Senate by a 52-48 margin.

Massachusetts (D pickup) Real Clear Politics Average: Warran 48.0%, Brown 46.3%

Missouri (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: McCaskill 45.8%, Akin 43.5%

Connecticut (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Murphy 47.0%, McMahon 42.7%

Nevada (R hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Heller 45.8%, Berkley 41.0%

Virginia (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Kaine 47.6%, Allen 45.4%

Wisconsin (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Baldwin 48.4%, Thompson 46.0%

Indiana (R hold) Most Recent Poll: Mourdock 47%, Donnelly 42% (Rasmussen 10/11)

Montana (R pickup) Real Clear Politics Average: Rehberg 46.3%, Tester 46.0%

Maine (I pickup!) Real Clear Politics Average: King 45.5%, Summers 31%, Dill 13.8%

North Dakota (R pickup) Real Clear Politics Average: Berg 48.5%, Heitkamp 43.5%

(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; akin4mccaskill; akin4obama; backstabberakin; barackobama; belongsinbloggers; mittromney; polls; senate
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We've been hearing so much about Romney leading, but it looks like the Senate races have been trending to the Democrats lately. Conservative sites like this and Drudge are not spending nearly enough time talking about the state of the Senate races. With 52-48 Dem control in the Senate, they will be able to sabotage Romney's entire agenda and make his first 2 years a failure. I'm also upset the Romney campaign isn't making the case in the debates as to why they need a Republican Senate to accomplish his agenda, 12 million jobs, etc.

We need help in Massachusetts, Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, etc.

1 posted on 10/21/2012 11:06:53 AM PDT by JediJones
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To: JediJones

If its a close election, the Democrats are safe. These polls are all taken on the basis of the 2008 turnout model. I think they are off and if its a Romney blowout - Democrats are vulnerable in all but Deep Blue States. We could even see a few upsets in this election.

Let the Democrats think they have in the bag.


2 posted on 10/21/2012 11:12:20 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: JediJones

I agree with the people that think whoever wins the WH will also win the Senate.


3 posted on 10/21/2012 11:15:30 AM PDT by dforest
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To: JediJones

Despite early foot-in-mouth disease I still think Akin can win in Missouri. What is happening in MA is beyond my comprehension. Montana looks it is going to be real squeeker, but hopefully there and in Virginia Romney will provide some coat-tails. A 50-50 Senate is probably the best one can hope for.


4 posted on 10/21/2012 11:16:30 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: JediJones

Please, Dear God, let these polls be wrong.


5 posted on 10/21/2012 11:18:34 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: goldstategop

Even if Dems hold Senate and Pubs keep House, with a Romney win, all these Executive Orders can be undone and he can do a few Obama-workarounds for a change......

He can also work to have agreeable Dem Senators to not vote for Reid and send that SOB back to Nevada.


6 posted on 10/21/2012 11:19:26 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: JediJones
Ignorant people that do not vote these criminal democrats out of the Senate we will still have all the old crooks like Reid in Majority and nothing can be done..The rats will vote for what they want not what the people want..We need a change so the Obama Communist won't be able to vote for and harm this country any more..

People do not be ignorant..

7 posted on 10/21/2012 11:21:08 AM PDT by PLD
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To: Gaffer
Romney wins OH, and Josh Mandel is an R pickup in the senate.

Not on the list.

8 posted on 10/21/2012 11:21:31 AM PDT by thedrake
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To: Gaffer

I’m sure the liberal base will be hitting the Senate Dems hard to block absolutely everything Romney wants to do once that is their one outlet to attack Republicans.

The Romney administration will be off to a very bad start if he can’t repeal Obamacare.


9 posted on 10/21/2012 11:22:24 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: JediJones
I don't really understand how the republican candidate could possibly be behind in Massachusetts, Missouri, Wisconsin with the awful candidates that the democrats are fielding.

In Mass. Warren is a fake indian and real communist.
Miss. has Mccaskill with her corrupt husband selling favors out of the senate cafeteria.
Wisc. has baldwin, a classic liberal with vague ideas of fairness and strong supporter of Obamacare against well known ex governor.

10 posted on 10/21/2012 11:23:39 AM PDT by oldbrowser (An empty chair attracts a stadium full of empty chairs.)
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To: JediJones

I can’t find what all of this pearl clutching is about.. The states that are shone with a Dem lead are clearly within margin of error, or a bit old.. The MO is in our favor, and barring a massive snafu, I’m feeling comfortable..


11 posted on 10/21/2012 11:23:44 AM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: JediJones

I think Rs win VA and WI.


12 posted on 10/21/2012 11:23:57 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: ScaniaBoy

Boy, I agree with you on the MA. race. Elizabeth Warren is the phoniest, most unlikeable candidate but she seems to be pulling ahead. They counted Scott out against Coakley but I fear for this seat.


13 posted on 10/21/2012 11:24:13 AM PDT by surrey
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To: ScaniaBoy

If MA vots for Warren, they are dumber than I thought.


14 posted on 10/21/2012 11:25:14 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: thedrake

I think they left Mandel off the list because Ohio is not as close a race as any of these listed here (except Maine). The Dem is winning it by more than 5 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/oh/ohio_senate_mandel_vs_brown-2100.html

Ohio (D hold) Real Clear Politics Average: Brown 47.8%, Mandel 42.2%


15 posted on 10/21/2012 11:25:54 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: nutmeg

bookmark


16 posted on 10/21/2012 11:27:19 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz: Romney / Ryan 2012)
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To: thedrake

Yep, forgot OH. Rs will pick that one up also in addition to WI and VA.


17 posted on 10/21/2012 11:27:41 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: JediJones

interesting, I don’t see any dem hitting 50


18 posted on 10/21/2012 11:28:26 AM PDT by BuckeyeGOP
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To: JediJones

Could be split ticket voting. A lot of that going on. Democrats are abandoning Obama and are not being seen within a mile of him.

They can make life difficult for Romney but if they have a near death experience at the polls, it will make them cooperative at least in the short term. Then again, its the House that appropriates and spends money.


19 posted on 10/21/2012 11:29:33 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: JediJones
Any incumbent below 50 should be on the list.

Sherrod Brown is an Obama clone.

I think if R/R takes OH, Josh Mandel will win also.

20 posted on 10/21/2012 11:32:18 AM PDT by thedrake
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To: JediJones

We need to REMOVE McConnell. AND Boehner from leadership positions in Congress.

Its sort of incongruous for Obama to be behind Romney and theGOP behind in Congress.


21 posted on 10/21/2012 11:32:44 AM PDT by ZULU (See video: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-first-siege-of-vienna.html)
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To: JediJones
SENATE RACES: We need help in Massachusetts, Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, etc.

Exactly! If we do not win the Senate, OBAMACARE is here to stay.

22 posted on 10/21/2012 11:35:33 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: JediJones; Admin Moderator
We've been hearing so much about Romney leading, but it looks like the Senate races have been trending to the Democrats lately. Conservative sites like this and Drudge are not spending nearly enough time talking about the state of the Senate races.

I'm talking about it, but the mods keep pulling my reports from the sidebar because I'm not a published journalist, as if that somehow gives me less credibility than Candy Crowley.

I have two more weekends of reports to go before the election.

-PJ

23 posted on 10/21/2012 11:35:53 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: thedrake
Any incumbent below 50 should be on the list.

Very good point!

24 posted on 10/21/2012 11:37:13 AM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: JediJones

Something occurs to me as I read all this polling stuff...

What ever happened to Charlie (I think it was Charlie) Cook of the “Cook Political Report? He used to be a big go- to guy on all this stuff and I haven’t heard a word from him this time around.

Any Cook sightings from anyone?

Hank


25 posted on 10/21/2012 11:43:00 AM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: tsowellfan
If we do not win the Senate, OBAMACARE is here to stay.

And Dodd-Frank, Sarbanes-Oxley, etc. Not to mention defense cuts, repeal of the Bush tax cuts. Romney's got up there in 2 debates and not once advocated for the idea that he'll need Republicans to win the Senate to pass most of his agenda. Instead he's advocated for "bipartisanship," which is just going to make those squishy independent voters split their ticket between Romney and the Democrat Senate candidate.

26 posted on 10/21/2012 11:46:44 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: JediJones
Let me add a link to yesterday's poll report : Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 20, 2012 (Senate Still Stuck)

-PJ

27 posted on 10/21/2012 11:47:22 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Cook seems to be predicting an Obama win.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/reporters/bio/2


28 posted on 10/21/2012 11:48:17 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: tsowellfan
Where is PA?

This is BS!

Casey is an empty suit and Smith is the real deal.

He is doing great and I think he has a better chance then Mandel in OH.

PA may have gone DEM in the presidential elections, but don't forget they sent Rick Santorum to the Senate.

Without huge coattails I think Casey is in big trouble.

29 posted on 10/21/2012 11:49:35 AM PDT by thedrake
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To: tsowellfan

If Romney is elected without the senate he can still delay Obamacare year to year UNTIL we get the senate back.


30 posted on 10/21/2012 11:51:42 AM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: KansasGirl

The stupidity of the liberal voter can not be overestimated, it is an impossible task.


31 posted on 10/21/2012 11:52:43 AM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: JediJones

These polls are off. Real Clear Politics Average has a large amount of Dem shill polls factored in.

Massachusetts (Tossup) Poll within the margin of error, Warren is the worst candidate ever fielded for office anywhere. Liar, fraud, and commie.

Missouri (Leaning Repub) I don’t care what the polls say here, the fact that Akin (after being crucified as Satan by every media outlet) is close, tells me he will win. People in Missouri hate McCatskull.

Connecticut (Leaning Dem) Big caveat, if Romney wins the election, I think McMahon gets carried over the finish line.

Nevada (Dem hold) We’re unlikely to win this one, just like Connie in Florida.

Virginia (Tossup) Within margin of error, and Allen is a better candidate, with more enthusiasm behind him than the democrat.

Wisconsin (Tossup) If Romney wins, even if he doesn’t win Wisconsin, I see this seat going for us.

Indiana (Repub hold) In the bag.

Montana (Repub) No questions asked, this seat belongs to Rehburg. Tester is a POS.

Maine (Indie who will vote Dem) King will probably win, but there’s a chance, if we can peel liberal support away for Dill instead. Split the vote.

North Dakota (Repub) I didn’t think we’d win this one a few months ago, but it’s safe now


32 posted on 10/21/2012 11:56:27 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: LongWayHome

Romney would probably rather have a Dem Senate there so he can have an excuse not to repeal Obamacare, and simply “reform” it. Everyone knows he’s had to be dragged kicking and screaming all the way to commit to repealing Obamacare.


33 posted on 10/21/2012 11:58:14 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: KansasGirl

Not possible to over estimate the dumbness of Massachusetts.


34 posted on 10/21/2012 11:59:06 AM PDT by prov1813man (While the one you despise and ridicule works to protect you, those you embrace work to destroy you)
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To: JediJones

That is a danger. We need to be on him & his team like white on rice as soon as he gets in the WH.


35 posted on 10/21/2012 11:59:52 AM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: Viennacon
Nevada (Dem hold) We’re unlikely to win this one, just like Connie in Florida.

The incumbent is a Republican and is winning according to the original article.

36 posted on 10/21/2012 12:01:23 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: thedrake

RCP has Casey up 47 to 41.7 over Smith, but the polls are a little old and we’ve obviously heard some buzz lately that Smith is doing better. Another article says he also has 40% more money on hand than Casey, who’s been lazy and expected to sleepwalk to a victory.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/pennsylvania_senate_race.html


37 posted on 10/21/2012 12:03:23 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: LongWayHome
We need to be on him & his team like white on rice as soon as he gets in the WH.

True! But without winning the Senate, Repealing ObamaCare is OUT the window.

Harry Reid must be defeated.

38 posted on 10/21/2012 12:04:27 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Gaffer

Supposing Romney wins and a Donkey-controlled Senate obstructs everything he and the House propose, it should set up a GOP / Tea Party romp in 2014, particularly if the economy stagnates. Lots of Ds up for reelection then.


39 posted on 10/21/2012 12:04:45 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: JediJones

Misread that. We’ll hold Nevada then. But we won’t win Florida. Connie has fallen behind by a lot from what I’ve read.

Too bad we couldn’t get rid of dingy Reid.


40 posted on 10/21/2012 12:05:43 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: tsowellfan

How likely is it that we kick Reid out next time?


41 posted on 10/21/2012 12:07:37 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: surrey

What’s going on in MA?

$$$$ & dirty tricks.


42 posted on 10/21/2012 12:09:46 PM PDT by Kenny (<p)
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To: JediJones

Republicans will win back the Senate. Count on at least a 52-48 margin, maybe more. Romney is going to win with MASSIVE coattails. He is going to sweep some who would otherwise lose over the finish line. Most of the polls are over-counting Democrats and under-counting Republicans. TT in Wisc., Mandel in Ohio, Allen in Va, and Smith in Pa will all be elected. If you want to help these predictions become reality, go to senateconservatives.com to donate $10 to the conservative Senate candidate of your choice.


43 posted on 10/21/2012 12:10:01 PM PDT by Combat_Liberalism
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To: Combat_Liberalism

What will the House split look like? I know they’re pulling some dirty re-districting in Illinois to kick out some Republicans. Bachmann looks to be staying. So does West. I think Hasner will win in Florida, and Harrington might just snare Washermouth’s seat.


44 posted on 10/21/2012 12:12:53 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: rfp1234
Supposing Romney wins and a Donkey-controlled Senate obstructs everything he and the House propose, it should set up a GOP / Tea Party romp in 2014, particularly if the economy stagnates.

I doubt that. Who took the blame in 2008 after Democrats controlled Congress for 2 years? People tend to blame the White House. That will be proven beyond a doubt again if Romney beats Obama but Dems keep the Senate. And the Dems, knowing that, will try to make life as miserable for Americans as possible over the next 2 years to pick up seats in 2014.

This year is a huge opportunity for getting Dems out of the Senate, with many more up for election than Repubs. If they can't succeed this year, it's a major failure for the party and I'm not sure if they'll have as good a map in 2014. And if Romney's first term fails because of Dem sabotage, Repubs will get slaughtered in 2016 on all fronts.

45 posted on 10/21/2012 12:18:35 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: LongWayHome
If Romney is elected without the senate he can still delay Obamacare year to year UNTIL we get the senate back.

Easier said then done. Many businesses have cut the hours of their fulltime workers to make them part-timers because of ObamaCare. So, how exactly will this economy recover under a President Romney with the full implementation of ObamaCare?

Prepping for Obamacare, Chain Cuts Workers' Hours

The MSM and the Democrats will see to it that Romney and the Republicans own this Obama economy beginning on Jan 20th 2013.

As you may remember, On Jan 20 2001 The Clinton Recession which was not even acknowledged by the MSM and the democrats mysteriously appeared for the first time in the news as the "Bush Recession.

Romney will own the results of this economy due to the implementation of ObamaCare.

If Romney fails to bring back the economy of the United States he will be a one term President, Harry Reid, the democrats and the MSM will make certain of it.

Creating jobs under OBAMACARE? Unlikely.

Losing the Senate is NOT an option.

46 posted on 10/21/2012 12:19:06 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Viennacon
Rehberg is running ads saying he will protect Medicare and Medicaid no matter which party wants to cut it so I don't think he thinks its in the bag, he was also running against the Ryan budget before Ryan got the veep spot.

I have been saying the Senate race here is to close to call and the absentee votes will determine the election, nothing I have seen has changed my mind...

47 posted on 10/21/2012 12:19:16 PM PDT by montanajoe (Blamed Flamed Shamed didn't vote for R/R or O/B)
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To: oldbrowser

Fear not. Brown, Mccaskill, and Thompson will all win. The only one who could lose by a hair is Brown. But I believe Romney’s coattails will carry even Brown over the finish line. Obama will win Massachusetts by 58-41% but that is much better than McCain did four years ago(63-36). Brown will need nearly 25% of Obama voters to split their tickets and vote for him. I believe he will and can do it but it will be very close.


48 posted on 10/21/2012 12:22:32 PM PDT by Combat_Liberalism
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To: tsowellfan

We need 50 seats with our VP. The problm is it looks like out senate hopes have collapsed somewhat. I though Allen had it in the bag along with Thompson in WI....now, not so much.


49 posted on 10/21/2012 12:23:19 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: oldbrowser

I misspoke. Akin will defeat Mccaskill.


50 posted on 10/21/2012 12:23:29 PM PDT by Combat_Liberalism
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