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Mittmentum: New polls in Ohio Better Than They Appear
National Review ^ | 10/21/12 | Josh Jordan

Posted on 10/21/2012 8:00:21 PM PDT by KansasGirl

Two new Ohio polls came out yesterday after my Ohio post, from from Gravis Marketing and PPP, both of which point to a razor-thin race in the most coveted swing state. A closer look at each poll shows just how much Romney has gained since the debates, and why he would be absolutely thrilled if these polls were accurate on Election Day.

The poll from Gravis Marketing shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent. But that’s as good as it gets for Obama. Among the most interesting tidbits from the poll:

Romney leads Obama by 19 percent among independents, 52–33, and holds 92 percent of his base compared to Obama’s 87 percent. Obama is underwater in job approval, 44–50, and independents disapprove of him overwhelmingly, 31–58. And the poll has a Democratic advantage of 9 percent, which is a 4 percent jump from 2008 — no one believes that Democrats can match their 2008 turnout advantage, let alone almost double it.

PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll yesterday showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 51–46 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the poll’s findings:

This week’s poll has a Democrat sample advantage of 8 percent; last week’s advantage was 4. Romney gained four points on Obama in a week despite the sample’s having four percentage points more Democrats. Romney leads with independents by 7 percent, up from a 5 percent last week. Obama’s approval is underwater at 48–50, and independents disapprove of him by a 41–54 margin. Last week Obama was in positive approval ground at 50–48, and independents disapproved by a much smaller 45–50 margin.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; oh2012; ohio; polls

1 posted on 10/21/2012 8:00:29 PM PDT by KansasGirl
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To: KansasGirl

Have to expect the undecideds to break 3/1 Romney. They already know Onama.


2 posted on 10/21/2012 8:03:31 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: KansasGirl

I look at these approval/disapproval numbers and can’t wrap my head around the fact that Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio. It doesn’t make sense to me.


3 posted on 10/21/2012 8:04:13 PM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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To: KansasGirl

Even the Marxist’s staunchest supporters know he’s a pathological liar.

Speaks volumes about them.


4 posted on 10/21/2012 8:06:28 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Catsrus

Makes sense if you over-sample Democrats by 9 points...


5 posted on 10/21/2012 8:06:46 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: Catsrus

Because Obama is not.


6 posted on 10/21/2012 8:07:19 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Catsrus

I’m in Ohio and you should know the following:

1. Kasich tried to limit public union rights and was beaten in a referendum. Really got the uniouns going strong.
2. The auto industry bail out is a plus for Obama.
3. The economy is doing better—this has more to do with Kasich and his pro fracking policies but it actually helps Obama with the low information voter.

Still my republican buddies are pumped and think Romney will win. Obama is hated in SE Ohio- coal country with lots of bitter clingers!


7 posted on 10/21/2012 8:11:16 PM PDT by don'tbedenied
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To: don'tbedenied

I wish somebody would run a poll of Ohio with a large properly balanced sample of 1,500 at 35R-35D-30I so we can get a telling read!!!!!!!!!


8 posted on 10/21/2012 8:18:43 PM PDT by SouthernFreePatriot
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To: don'tbedenied

Scioto County, Southern Ohio. I’m not seeing Obama signs. I see clusters of democrat signs but they’re almost all missing Obama sins.


9 posted on 10/21/2012 8:24:22 PM PDT by far sider
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+ 9 Dem is just laughable.


10 posted on 10/21/2012 8:25:42 PM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: far sider

OHIO will be the likely decider just like happened with Bush v. Kerry. Time for the RNC to flood OH and PA with non-stop ads.


11 posted on 10/21/2012 9:16:24 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: KansasGirl
This just in for Ohio. 0bama takes all OH electoral votes. Sherrod (D) wins Senate.

In congressional races, Republican wins in districts 1, 2, 8, 27 and 30. 'Dem wins in districts 28, 29, 31.

Ohio 2012 Results

12 posted on 10/21/2012 9:21:18 PM PDT by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll ping.


13 posted on 10/21/2012 9:26:16 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: far sider
I see clusters of democrat signs but they’re almost all missing Obama sins.

But with all those sins of his, where would you start?

14 posted on 10/21/2012 9:27:44 PM PDT by Lonely Bull
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To: C210N

Come back on Nov. 7th.


15 posted on 10/21/2012 9:47:34 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: C210N

Interesting simulation. Who the heck is Scott Rupert?


16 posted on 10/21/2012 10:20:45 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: C210N

Mandel gets more votes for senate than Romney gets for president? Not likely.


17 posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:24 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: C210N

Did you check those “results?” No winner has been named and NO votes have been counted yet in ANY of those races.

I’m sure its a software-related glitch. Don’t read anything into it.


18 posted on 10/21/2012 11:18:33 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: don'tbedenied

Thanks for the info. I had been figuring point 2 for a while, but I hadn’t realized about the others. I hope it’s not enough for an Obama repeat.


19 posted on 10/22/2012 12:44:36 AM PDT by DemforBush (100% Ex-Democrat.)
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To: Catsrus

I look at these approval/disapproval numbers and can’t wrap my head around the fact that Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio. It doesn’t make sense to me.

Our local news has turned into good news central where nothing bad ever happens. This morning it was how wonderful Xmas is going to be for retailers and falling gas prices. That explains some of it.


20 posted on 10/22/2012 3:54:11 AM PDT by Buck-I-Guy
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To: KansasGirl

I’m visiting NE Ohio this past week—I posted so far how, in the west suburbs of Cleveland, Romney is just about tied w/ BO for home yard signs. In libwacko heaven Oberlin Ohio ( a college town w/ a lot of blacks to boot) I saw 2 BO signs in the whole town, and in an (now) inner city Catholic church in Cleveland, the priest basically said in his homily that BO is unfit to be reelected and to go beyond the “secular media’s” lies and distortions.

Yesterday evening, my cousin invited me out to dinner—he moved near Medina many years ago. Medina area is 30 miles or so from Cleveland’s west side, full of whites from Cleveland who wisely got the hell out of Dodge over the last 30 years. Closer in (Brunswick area), it’s suburban residential and some new homes, further out it’s new developments, local farms, small towns.

Anyway, it was 30 miles out from where I’m staying. I counted signs on my drive. I saw 2 BO signs—and 24 Romney/Ryan signs. No kidding.


21 posted on 10/22/2012 3:56:07 AM PDT by mortdecai
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To: KansasGirl

R’s consistently outperform national numbers in Ohio by .5%-2.5% every election. Thus, if Romney leads nationally, he also leads Ohio. All the hype about Ohio is an excuse to claim that Obama has a shot, which he doesn’t, and also drives people to watch more news and campaigns to buy more ads, resulting in more revenue to the media companies. They have a vested interest in claiming the election is close. The Gallup LV model was almost dead on in ‘08, and Romney is at 52% and Obama is at 45%. Which means it doesn’t come down to Ohio or any other “battleground state”


22 posted on 10/22/2012 5:29:59 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: KansasGirl
Quinnipiac just came out with a POLL showing Obama UP 5 in Ohio. What is their sampling breakdown?
23 posted on 10/22/2012 5:36:24 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: johncocktoasten

Exactly, a point I’ve made here as well. No way is Mitt ahead in National polling and behind in Ohio.

I believe I heard F&F just mention a quinnipiac(sp?) poll that just came out in Ohio and showed O ahead by 5?! Bullsh^t

Ohio is the last refuge for propaganda. They all know if Ohio is seen as going red, with the rest of Mitt’s MO... perception will turn into NO hope for O.


24 posted on 10/22/2012 5:39:00 AM PDT by BuckeyeGOP
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To: KansasGirl
"PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll yesterday showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 51–46 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the poll’s findings:

This week’s poll has a Democrat sample advantage of 8 percent; last week’s advantage was 4."

That is blue smoking horseshit fraudulent poll manipulation. And it is way past the time when it's acceptable to play games like that.

That said, that's really bad news for Bobo, when your special sauce is scraped off the bun and you're likely 3 points down in OH, which reflects the nationwide trend. If even Bill Kristol can surmise that, as he did yesterday on FNS, then everyone understands it.

25 posted on 10/22/2012 5:39:28 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NV, NH = 291EV)
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To: KansasGirl

R’s consistently outperform national numbers in Ohio by .5%-2.5% every election. Thus, if Romney leads nationally, he also leads Ohio. All the hype about Ohio is an excuse to claim that Obama has a shot, which he doesn’t, and also drives people to watch more news and campaigns to buy more ads, resulting in more revenue to the media companies. They have a vested interest in claiming the election is close. The Gallup LV model was almost dead on in ‘08, and Romney is at 52% and Obama is at 45%. Which means it doesn’t come down to Ohio or any other “battleground state”


26 posted on 10/22/2012 5:41:11 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: PJ-Comix
Quinnipiac just came out with a POLL showing Obama UP 5 in Ohio. What is their sampling breakdown?

5 cups of coffee, 3 packs of cigarettes, bitten fingernails, and a tell-tale bruise or two on the family dog.

Oh, wait... that's their mental breakdown. Pretty much the same thing, though.

27 posted on 10/22/2012 5:43:20 AM PDT by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: Catsrus
I look at these approval/disapproval numbers and can’t wrap my head around the fact that Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio. It doesn’t make sense to me.

He's not ahead. Romney will comfortably carry OH.

All the poll misinformation about a close OH race is to get out the base for the Senate race. Obama is a lost cause & they know it. Control of the Senate, however, still hangs in the balance.

28 posted on 10/22/2012 5:44:09 AM PDT by Gulf War One
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To: far sider

Gallia County...Romney signs outnumber O signs at least 10-1, if not more. A neighbor put up an enormous Romney sign just a few houses down...right before you get to the local polling place where my husband and I vote. ;)


29 posted on 10/22/2012 5:47:06 AM PDT by Hoosier Catholic Momma (How long till my Arkansas drawl fades into the twang of southeast Ohio?)
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To: KansasGirl

Being an Ohioan, I suppose that gives me license to nitpick.

My nitpick is with yardsigns being used by the Romney team in Ohio.

Way too many of them are blue signs that say “nobama”. I’ve seen dueling yards and dueling street corners where we have some blue “obama biden” signs and some blue “nobama” signs.

Is the “nobama” idea cute? Sure. I get it, I understand it, blah, blah, blah. But, I’m an insider. I’ve been reading that stuff for years. Mr. John Q Voter, who turns on a news program once every 4 years at presidential election time, in my humble opinion, simply will not see blue nobama. He’ll see yards and street corners full of ‘bama’ with an “o” sound in front.

Recently, I began to see a few Romney/Ryan white signs. Awesome. Someone needs to mass produce those bad boys and quit the cutesy ‘nobama’ thing.

What really makes me scratch my head is why in the world they made them in blue???

I’d call it the lost message problem. Everyone thinks their neighbors and friends are obama supporters because they sport blue ‘bama’ signs.

At least it appears that way as you drive by at anywhere from 30 to 60 mph.


30 posted on 10/22/2012 6:37:50 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Buck-I-Guy

Tell me about it. The battleground states have local media in the TANK for Obama. Never do they report on the struggling moms trying to pay for gasoline or food...we here in Florida haven’t heard a damn thing from the Miami media about Romney’s lead in the state OR about this past week’s Gallup poll.

But every appearance of Michelle Obama or Joe Biden is treated as big news.


31 posted on 10/22/2012 6:56:02 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: johncocktoasten; All; LS; Perdogg; Ravi
The Gallup LV model was almost dead on in ‘08, and Romney is at 52% and Obama is at 45%.

I strongly suspect this Gallup figure will again prove to be pretty accurate, and I draw this conclusion from the way the white vote is trending for Romney.

Check out this column by S.E. Cupp from over the weekend, Obama's Struggles with White Voters: Racism Has Nothing to Do with It

In this article, she cites the % white vote spread that the GOP candidate has gotten since 1992 (i.e. how much the GOP has beaten the Dem in white vote %). I took these numbers and plotted them against the actual % of popular vote that the GOP candidates got in each race. Mind you, this isn't a perfect comparison, because of the influence of Perot in the early two, as well as the fact that the white vote is progressively becoming a smaller portion of the total vote (but is still, despite the demographic alarmists, overwhelming compared to other groups).

Nevertheless, I got a linear equation y = 0.7626x + 37.458, where x = % white vote spread. The R2 regression coefficient is 0.94, which is pretty linearity when talking about something in the social sciences (sorry LS). When you plug in "20" for x, based on the numbers from the polls she cites, and solve for y (to get total % of popular vote), you get y = 52.71%, which is pretty close to what Gallup is showing.

This stands to reason, since the white vote still makes up about three quarters of the TOTAL vote, so as the white vote goes, so will (generally) the popular vote. I've been saying for years that the GOP needs to focus on turning out its friendly pool of potential base voters, rather than wasting inordinate amounts of time and money on massive minority voter outreach. To reach them, we need to leverage our present strength with white voters into policy-making ability (by winning elections), so as to create policies that can "show" increasing numbers of minority voters the correctness of conservative principles, by letting them see and benefit from them in practice, rather than just in theory.

32 posted on 10/22/2012 8:59:50 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: KansasGirl

Last two sentences of poll:

“Based on these two polls, the only way Obama can win Ohio is if he finds a way to greatly surpass 2008 turnout with Democrats, which at the moment seems like an impossible task. If these polls hold, it won’t be long before the state Romney was declared dead in knocks down the last pillar of inevitability that Obama has left.”

Hope he does well in the debate tonight.


33 posted on 10/22/2012 11:34:16 AM PDT by TomEwall
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To: KansasGirl
Short version: Romney up 8. Or, Gallup is right.

Watch for an unhinged O at tonight's debate. All Romney has to do is goad him into a tantrum.

34 posted on 10/22/2012 12:22:02 PM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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