Skip to comments.Mittmentum: New polls in Ohio Better Than They Appear
Posted on 10/21/2012 8:00:21 PM PDT by KansasGirl
Two new Ohio polls came out yesterday after my Ohio post, from from Gravis Marketing and PPP, both of which point to a razor-thin race in the most coveted swing state. A closer look at each poll shows just how much Romney has gained since the debates, and why he would be absolutely thrilled if these polls were accurate on Election Day.
The poll from Gravis Marketing shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent. But thats as good as it gets for Obama. Among the most interesting tidbits from the poll:
Romney leads Obama by 19 percent among independents, 5233, and holds 92 percent of his base compared to Obamas 87 percent. Obama is underwater in job approval, 4450, and independents disapprove of him overwhelmingly, 3158. And the poll has a Democratic advantage of 9 percent, which is a 4 percent jump from 2008 no one believes that Democrats can match their 2008 turnout advantage, let alone almost double it.
PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll yesterday showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 5146 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the polls findings:
This weeks poll has a Democrat sample advantage of 8 percent; last weeks advantage was 4. Romney gained four points on Obama in a week despite the samples having four percentage points more Democrats. Romney leads with independents by 7 percent, up from a 5 percent last week. Obamas approval is underwater at 4850, and independents disapprove of him by a 4154 margin. Last week Obama was in positive approval ground at 5048, and independents disapproved by a much smaller 4550 margin.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Have to expect the undecideds to break 3/1 Romney. They already know Onama.
I look at these approval/disapproval numbers and can’t wrap my head around the fact that Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio. It doesn’t make sense to me.
Even the Marxist’s staunchest supporters know he’s a pathological liar.
Speaks volumes about them.
Makes sense if you over-sample Democrats by 9 points...
Because Obama is not.
I’m in Ohio and you should know the following:
1. Kasich tried to limit public union rights and was beaten in a referendum. Really got the uniouns going strong.
2. The auto industry bail out is a plus for Obama.
3. The economy is doing better—this has more to do with Kasich and his pro fracking policies but it actually helps Obama with the low information voter.
Still my republican buddies are pumped and think Romney will win. Obama is hated in SE Ohio- coal country with lots of bitter clingers!
I wish somebody would run a poll of Ohio with a large properly balanced sample of 1,500 at 35R-35D-30I so we can get a telling read!!!!!!!!!
Scioto County, Southern Ohio. I’m not seeing Obama signs. I see clusters of democrat signs but they’re almost all missing Obama sins.
+ 9 Dem is just laughable.
OHIO will be the likely decider just like happened with Bush v. Kerry. Time for the RNC to flood OH and PA with non-stop ads.
In congressional races, Republican wins in districts 1, 2, 8, 27 and 30. 'Dem wins in districts 28, 29, 31.
But with all those sins of his, where would you start?
Come back on Nov. 7th.
Interesting simulation. Who the heck is Scott Rupert?
Mandel gets more votes for senate than Romney gets for president? Not likely.
Did you check those “results?” No winner has been named and NO votes have been counted yet in ANY of those races.
I’m sure its a software-related glitch. Don’t read anything into it.
Thanks for the info. I had been figuring point 2 for a while, but I hadn’t realized about the others. I hope it’s not enough for an Obama repeat.
I look at these approval/disapproval numbers and cant wrap my head around the fact that Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio. It doesnt make sense to me.
Our local news has turned into good news central where nothing bad ever happens. This morning it was how wonderful Xmas is going to be for retailers and falling gas prices. That explains some of it.