Skip to comments.Polls, Debates, and More with the Campaign Insiders! [FOX News segment w/ Pat Caddell]
Posted on 10/22/2012 12:08:07 AM PDT by JediJones
This is FOX News' Campaign Insiders weekly Sunday segment with the best and most unbiased, unslanted election analysis in the biz.
Caddell is not too enthusiastic about Gallup's polling model. Thinks 350 voters a day over 7 days are too small samples. They all think Romney is a couple points ahead though, closer to Rasmussen than Gallup.
They also think Obama did not get a bounce from the 2nd debate despite the liberal media trying to will it into reality. They think the trend is still moving in Romney's direction.
Caddell's saying Ohio may have been poisoned by Obama's very early and continuous advertising there, so he thinks Romney should look at other swing states like Pennsylvania to make up for it.
Caddell hates the WSJ/NBC polls showing Obama way ahead in some other swing states like Iowa, think's it's totally off the mark.
They think people will watch the 3rd debate in large numbers despite Monday Night Football. Undecided voters rank foreign policy very low, around 10% as an important issue, but they still think a big debate win or a big gaffe could affect the momentum of the race. They think Ryan and Romney have been flubbing the Libya issue and they better be prepared to nail it tomorrow. One guy is worried about Romney, thinks he too often fumbles the ball on foreign policy issues.
Their usual online Monday show will be posted on Monday at 10:30 AM.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
Agree with Caddell, I think OH is a lost cause as well.
Unfortunately, I can’t see PA going red. So I’m not sure where R-R is going to make up the EV shortfall.
Considering how the 2nd debate went, with them literally getting in each other’s faces, I would think people would tune in for some sparks that may fly.
Right now my sense is that Obama will indeed lose the popular vote by at least a few %, yet narrowly squeak out enough EVs to win.
I see a lot of people being optimistic, and that’s great. But I’m trying to take a step back and look at this situation dispassionately, and I’m just not seeing any indicative data to support the idea that Romney is necessarily going to win this thing. I see wild speculations about momentum shifts and what not, but the numbers simply aren’t adding up in my rough estimations.
Hopefully Mitt has an excellent debate tomorrow (and/or Obama bombs it hard).
Ohio’s been giving me an ulcer this election. I’m not ready to write it off just yet, but I don’t think it’s any better than 50/50. My recurring nightmare is that R/R come achingly close in Ohio as well as the fallback states that could make up for Ohio’s loss, but Obama manages to bamboozle just enough fools to prevail in just enough states to win.
Yup, you’ve articulated exactly the same concern that’s been wracking me the past few days. Where it’ll come closereal closebut there’ll be just that 0.1% to put Obama over the top in the few key states he needs (like OH, PA, NV, etc).
Don’t underestimate the impact of obama’s war on coal in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West by G-d Virginia. Not to mention his intent to reintroduce a ban on ‘asault weapons’.
Oddly - if you follow Rasmussen in Ohio all the way back to September 12 - and maybe further - he's had it a 1 point race in ever poll since then. Just noticed that.
1. Absentee Ballots figures from LS
2. Skewed Polls giving Obama at least a 2.5 kiss in RCP averages
3. Undecideds breaking for challenger of unpopular incumbent
We know Rasmussen is not using his own party affiliation numbers nationally - rather a D+3 Model. I don't know what he's using within individual states - so it's hard to know what the current Ohio Rasmussen skew is, if any. Maybe someone with a subscription can comment on Rasmussen state internals?
FYI here's latest RCP for Ohio ...
There’s noway Romney wins the popular vote by a few points or more and lose the EV. Not for a Republican.
The reason a D can do that is states like heavily populate and very blue California.
Theoretically possible, but utterly without historical precedent.
There are a few ways, but only a few.
2. NV, IA and NH
3. NV, IA and 1 EV from Maine
4. WI and ANY one of the above states
In a way it shows Romney's pollsters may have had a sense of where things were going as far back as the Ryan pick. Picking up Wisconsin could be a BIG help if they lose Ohio. And it turns out they didn't need Rubio to get Florida. I think they need to hit WI, NV and IA hard, hard, hard.
After McCain/Palin bombed badly in PA even though even Rendell thought McCain had a great chance here, I think they're better off looking for other states. Plus it just makes more sense to campaign for smaller chunks of EVs than the one big chunk in PA. Because of winner-take-all rules. A miss in PA means losing the whole chunk, but missing a smaller chunk out of a few smaller states is not necessarily death if you win most of the chunks.
Ohio is not a lost cause, that is nonsense.
If Romney has a few % lead in the popular vote, he will win the EV vote.
When that socialist thug, Hugo Chavez, of Venezuela, that communist dictator, Fidel Castro, of Cuba, that autocratic strong arm ruler, Vladimir Putin, of Russia, that crazy president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, of the leading terrorist country in the world, Iran, the leftist UN and the Communist Party of the USA all endorse Barack Obama for president, that’s all I need to know to NOT vote for him in November. Birds of a feather, flock together, as they say.
I see this like the WI recall when it was called a dead heat and it turned out to be an easy GOP win.
The GOP get out the vote will be the difference.
“Agree with Caddell, I think OH is a lost cause as well.”
Caddell didn’t say he thought it was a lost cause.
Get 49% in PA (20 EV) and you lose the election. Get 49% out of WI, NV, IA and NH (26 EV total), and you could win. You could even win with just 30% of the vote from those states, assuming you get 51% in WI and NH, and lose the others totally. That’s why it makes more sense to campaign for EVs in smaller chunks rather than eyeing a single big prize. It takes less overall votes to get you over the threshold.
I think Romney is going to be back in dangerous territory after Monday. His campaign did poorly when it spoke directly to the public on the regional campaign trail. The debates are the only thing that saved him. We’ve had 2 and a half weeks of debates. After tomorrow we’ll have 2 weeks of no debates. That’s obviously enough time for one side to change the momentum of the race.
Romney’s probably going to go back into play-it-safe mode when he should probably be getting on every TV show out there, no matter how hostile, and continuing to make his case forcefully and confrontationally if necessary, on a national media level. That’s the only style of campaigning that’s worked for him so far.
The type of voters that love Obama ONLY vote in presidential elections or in primaries where Obama's on the ticket. It's not reliable to compare to 2010 or to a special election. Not to mention, polls did show Walker ahead in the recall leading up to it. It was pretty clear to both sides that Walker was going to win that one once his opponent had been picked, although I think you're right that the margin of victory was bigger than expected.
I think it’s interesting that Caddell says the same thing Dick Morris said earlier in the week: the ad-saturated swing states don’t move easily, and some of the now close, but less traditionally battleground, states may now have more potential for Romney because they could respond better to more advertising and outreach in the last couple of weeks.
We know that the Romney campaign has poured late resources into PA, but I don’t know about the other states.
PA, OH, and WI will most likely fall to Obamaafter that, all he has to do is pick up either NV, CO, or IA, and it’s game over.
Yea okay then why don’t you just leave here and go do something else since you’ve got this all figured out?
Romney’s -2 in OH, -5 in PA, -3 in WI according to current RCP avgs. So, unless something extraordinary happens I don’t think these trends will change significantly.
I don’t see NV going red after what happened in 2010
That’s been my suspicion on NV also.
I checked the party registrations for NV too and there’s a +90,000 D differential, which doesn’t bode well.
NV’s one of the top 5 Mormon states in the country with about 7% Mormons. The polls now could be underestimating Mormon turnout. It may not be a demographic they’re adjusting properly for, with no precedent for a Mormon president. And Harry Reid had the Mormon card to play in 2010 just as Mitt does.
So in essence, you have nothing to bring to this discussion other than reference to rcp’s current poll averages, which we can all see for ourselves?
Republican Dean Heller has a comfortable lead in the NV Senate race polling right now. He’s a male Mormon. His opponent is a female Jew.
Does anyone remember the polls befor the Reagan landslide?
We now have Fox and the Internet - so perhaps they are more accurate.
There are people who analyzed the early voting and think Romney has a good chance in OH. Don’t be so damn depressing when we’re ahead right now in most all the polls.
I like Caddell. Reminds me of the old days when Democrats weren’t so obviously devoted to Socialism.
Good to know.
This is what concerns me on NV (totals at bottom): http://www.nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=1269
If that were true the Kenyan wouldn’t be spending so much time in those states. The panel in the posted video referred to Obama’s new ad’s as being a desperate campaign move. I agree.
2 and 3 points though is small enough to be affected by both margin of error and by different turnout than the polls are modeling for.
The big problem to worry about is that Mitt loses momentum in the two weeks between the last debate and the election. The time period between the conventions and the first debate was not a good one for him.
It does appear Obama has pulled back on negative advertising. He could be holding that back to avoid giving Mitt the chance to refute it in the debates. He may turn the negative ads back on starting Tuesday when Mitt no longer has a huge free forum to counter them on.
Like I said, I’m trying to look at this dispassionately on the basis of the information that’s actually availablepoll numbers, voter registrations, etc. Not speculation.
If you have any actual data that’d make me more feel more optimistic about OH, etc. then please share.
Yea because the R convention was last week of August when most people were still doing last week of summer stuff and not paying attention then the D convention was held seven days later cutting into any bump Romney got and then we had to live with the Obama bump after his convention until Romney had the chance to introduce himself as a good alternative to the public (75 million to be exact) without the media filter, and has been gaining MO ever since. Even though we had the media lying and giving the VP debate as a win to Biden and the second debate a "big win" to Obama.
People saw through it.
So two weeks ago, you’d have written off Florida and North Carolina as hopeless because the poll averages showed Obama ahead there?
Two weeks ago? No. Too much fluidity in the race a month out from the election. Most voters still aren’t even paying much attention then.
15 days from the election though, things become a bit more crystallized and inelastic. Not saying there can’t be major movement still, but the odds of it successfully happening get slimmer.
The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.
One more reason they should probably give up on Ohio now. Sounds like too much voting took place before Romney’s bump.
Hammer WI, NV, IA and NH, assuming FL, VA, NC and CO are in the bag. If there are enough resources to go around, throw PA into the mix as a longshot.
Agreed, Ohio is far from a lost cause. Every poll is tied or in the MOE. It is going down to a turnout battle.
Maybe LS and Ravi can give you the early voting stats from 2008. It shows that the Dem early vote is down in comparison to now.
Watch Romney beat Barry Soetoro like a rented mule?
Or watch Da Bears whip the Lions 135-3?
Hmmm?!? Tough choice but I'm 'goin wit Da Bears'!
[my old sout side accent -- On. ;-)]
ps: I actually HATE the Lions more than the Packers.
I get that the Dem early vote is down, but the problem is that it’s not down enough to make the difference.
Now I’m beginning to think you’re just trolling . You’re cherry picking the PPP Poll (Dem pollster) from 10-13, where they had obama up by 5, while ignoring the one they released yesterday showing it a 1 point race,.
Da Bears? Or Da Bull$#!t?
I think FL, VA, and NC are secure red territory at this point.
I suspect NH and CO may well go red also.
But Romney would still be down -9 EVspeeling away NV + IA (12) would win it, or getting WI (10) alone. I think the idea of winning PA is “fool’s gold”, someone else aptly put it.
Ah, yeah. You got me man, I’m totally trolling. </sarc>
I think the political class, as usual, is tone deaf to almost all of the rest of the world. With Monday Night Football, Detroit at Chicago, and now a winner take all seventh game for the National League pennant, St. Louis at San Francisco, the viewership for tonight’s debate will hit rock bottom.