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What States Will Obama Win? (First in a Series)
Pajamas Media ^ | 10/22/2012 | Roger Kimball

Posted on 10/22/2012 8:48:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

For some months, I have been predicting that Romney would not only win but win big. I have a number of lunches and other small wagers riding on the outcome, so I have been cheered by Team Romney’s meteoric rise in the polls recently.

I understand the wisdom of Yogi Berra’s observation that it’s not over till it’s over. Harold Wilson was surely right that a week is a long time in politics.

Still, while not exactly counting the chickens before they hatch, I am drawing up a menu that features poulet for the main course. I think there will be plenty to go around.

How much, exactly? Well, now we enter the realm of the parlor game. But I observe that people actually pay good money to places like the Gallup organization to do this sort of thing, so I thought I would take a shot at it too.

The lay of the land will be a lot clearer, I suspect, Monday at 11:01 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. And I will have occasion to return to this theme from time to time and offer updated guesses (for between you and me, Kemo Sabe, that’s what we’re talking about in all this commentary about the election, guesses). But for now, here’s how I see things shaking out. It will be much quicker to list the states that I think Obama will win, adding alongside the number of Electoral College votes they command. Starting from beyond the Left coast:

Hawaii (4)

Washington (12)

Oregon (7)

California (55)

New Mexico (5)

Illinois (20)

Michigan (16)

Iowa (6)

New York (29)

Washington, DC (3)

Maryland (10)

Delaware (3)

New Jersey (14)

Connecticut (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (4)

That’s seventeen states and one enfranchised dependent sinkhole for a grand total of 223 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 33 states and 315 electoral votes. I acknowledge that Wisconsin (10) might go to Obama as of course might Ohio (18). But 315 – 28 = 287, i.e., Romney still wins. [Update: I forgot Minnesota: another possible, indeed, likely, 10 for Obama: Romney still gets at least 277.]

There are obviously variations on this scenario. Most that I ponder have Romney winning, and winning comfortably, And let’s not forget that there are other scenarios that put Michigan and Iowa (and maybe even others) into play.

I believe President Obama likes to make guesses about who will basketball games. Here’s my first entry into a kindred psephological pastime.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bho2012; bluestates; elections; obama
I concede all of the above states but one...

Question: WILL OBAMA REALLY WIN IOWA?

1 posted on 10/22/2012 8:48:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

“0”


2 posted on 10/22/2012 8:50:02 AM PDT by Sacajaweau (r)
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To: SeekAndFind
Would be tickled pink red if Romney can flip PA, WI, and Minn.
3 posted on 10/22/2012 8:54:04 AM PDT by tflabo (Truth or Tyranny)
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To: SeekAndFind
I'm not sure the annointed one will lose Ohio, and polls show Florida mighty close.

On another but related topic has anyone noticed how uncomfortable 0 is when his backside ISN'T being kissed? Anyone notice how 0 had to run to the revolting and fawning Dave Letterman to get the familiar feel of lips on his butt after Romney had the temerity to disagree with him in the debates?

4 posted on 10/22/2012 8:55:53 AM PDT by from occupied ga (Your government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind

There are people here in Oregon actually talking as if it could be a TOSS UP state.....I doubt it, but it sure would be SHWEEETTT!!!!


5 posted on 10/22/2012 8:56:51 AM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: SeekAndFind
DC’s the only “state” that I'd place any money on.
6 posted on 10/22/2012 8:57:22 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: from occupied ga

RE: I’m not sure the annointed one will lose Ohio

No one has lost Ohio and won the presidency since... Lincoln.

If the anointed one wins Ohio, it’s hello President Obama again till 2016 ( by which we’ll see if d’Souza’s movie is accurate ).


7 posted on 10/22/2012 9:01:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: tflabo

It would be turning water into wine if California actually did NOT go for Obama. Please give us a tiny speck of hope here on the West Coast. We live vicariously through the hope in the states to the right of us.


8 posted on 10/22/2012 9:01:22 AM PDT by georgiegirl
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To: SeekAndFind

You forgot to add the “mysterious 7 states”, to bring it up to 57.


9 posted on 10/22/2012 9:02:29 AM PDT by Biff55 (A furore Normanorum libera nos, O Domine!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I never understood why the Republicans concede California. While it would be impossible to win the whole state as the vote rules stand now - winner take all - they should be fighting to change Califonia to apportion the electoral college votes. Usually, almost half of California voters vote for the Republican nominee. That could be about 25 of the 55 electoral votes.

Some rich Republican needs to sponsor a ballot initiative to change the California process. It would be easy, just throw all the liberal talking points back at them. FAIRNESS - COUNT ALL VOTES, HAVE ALL VOTES COUNT - VOTERS ARE BEING DISENFRANCHISED.


10 posted on 10/22/2012 9:02:47 AM PDT by anonsquared
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To: from occupied ga

polls show Florida mighty close.
*********************************
Florida won’t be close ,, I’d love to know how many ex-Obama voters the pollsters turn away when they find them “not likely to vote” ... they must be making huge numbers of calls to find enough “likely’s”..


11 posted on 10/22/2012 9:03:05 AM PDT by Neidermeyer
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To: SeekAndFind
I'd list these as the only sure things:

Hawaii (4)

Washington (12)

California (55)

Illinois (20)

New York (29)

Washington, DC (3)

Maryland (10)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (3) {one may flip to Romney}

That's 154 for certain, plus a high probability of Delaware (3), New Jersey (14), and Connecticut (7) for a total of 178.

And that's only an improbable best case scenario for the country if we have a 1980s style blow-out because we have gotten that much stupider since then.

12 posted on 10/22/2012 9:05:19 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: from occupied ga

“Polls” might show Florida close but believe me it’s RED!


13 posted on 10/22/2012 9:05:21 AM PDT by GatorGirl (Vote for Romney to cancel a vote for the Empty Chair)
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To: SeekAndFind

Of all the states in all the geographical locations to enact gay marriage I thought Iowa would be one of the last. But they did it. So they are unreliable ever after.


14 posted on 10/22/2012 9:08:01 AM PDT by relictele
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To: Vigilanteman

Why did you leave out Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico and Michigan?


15 posted on 10/22/2012 9:09:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: GatorGirl
“Polls” might show Florida close but believe me it’s RED!

I certainly hope so. Romney is no conservative, but I'm not sure we'd recognize the country after four more years of the annointed one

16 posted on 10/22/2012 9:12:42 AM PDT by from occupied ga (Your government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind

I dispute MI, IA amd ME. I think Romney gets at least 1 in Maine and the momentum in both MI and IA is toward RR. It may be too little too late but neither state’s a lock nobama.


17 posted on 10/22/2012 9:17:03 AM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Just early voted here in Tennessee which, by the way, Romney will win by a landslide. Talked to the election officals and they said they have never, ever seen this many people early voting before.

Marsha Blackburn, Bob Corcker, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan will carry this state big time....! Tennessee is becoming more and more conservative as time passes.

We will probably have a conservative super majority in the state gov. which should be great for our state.


18 posted on 10/22/2012 9:18:39 AM PDT by swampfox101
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To: GatorGirl

From what I have been reading, I think Florida will definitely go Red...!


19 posted on 10/22/2012 9:21:05 AM PDT by swampfox101
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To: georgiegirl
Please give us a tiny speck of hope here on the West Coast.

We salute our west coast conservative brethren. Have a 99-100% turnout at the polls and flipping enough Indies. What else is there?

20 posted on 10/22/2012 9:23:50 AM PDT by tflabo (Truth or Tyranny)
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To: SeekAndFind
The state of Despair, which could be one of the 57 states President Obama won on the first go round.
21 posted on 10/22/2012 9:25:42 AM PDT by 2001convSVT (Going Galt as fast as I can.)
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To: SeekAndFind

All 57 states.


22 posted on 10/22/2012 9:26:58 AM PDT by Doulos1 (Bitter Clinger Forever!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Of the states listed as going for Obama I think Romney will actually pick up Iowa and one of the four EV from Maine. On the down side I don't think it is likely we will pick up PA. It is still possible but any election where the GOP picks up PA it is unlikely they will need it.
23 posted on 10/22/2012 9:33:56 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: tflabo; georgiegirl

See my post #10. The beauty of changing to an apportioned California is it would not only put 25 electoral votes in the Republican column, it would also eliminate 25 electoral votes from the Democrat column. The Dems count on those as gimmes and do not spend much of their resources here.

I don’t understand why TPTB in the Republican Party spend so much money in other states for single digit electoral votes and don’t fight for the conservative vote in California. Put an initiative on the ballot!


24 posted on 10/22/2012 9:35:51 AM PDT by anonsquared
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To: from occupied ga

Southeast Florida is a lost cause but I live in the I-4 Corridor and I don’t see any support for Obama at all. Not like last time.

Early voting starts next Saturday and lasts for one week.

And we have Photo ID!


25 posted on 10/22/2012 9:39:51 AM PDT by GatorGirl (Vote for Romney to cancel a vote for the Empty Chair)
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To: SeekAndFind; Vigilanteman

Your lists have been duly recorded by writing them on the wall for comparison on Nov 7.


26 posted on 10/22/2012 9:40:36 AM PDT by TYVets (Pure-Gas.org ..... ethanol free gasoline by state and city)
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To: anonsquared
don’t fight for the conservative vote in California. Put an initiative on the ballot!

It's a matter of resource allocation. You could spend $100,000,000 on conservative (or in the case of Romney, moderate) advertising and STILL the voters in the left wing strongholds like San Francisco and Los Angeles would march off the left cliff and vote for the biggest communist they could find.

It isn't an accident that garbage like Pelosi gets re-elected by large margins in Kalifornistan. She and those like her accurately reflect the viewpoints of the majority of the voters in Kali.

27 posted on 10/22/2012 9:44:26 AM PDT by from occupied ga (Your government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind

Don’t be so pessimistic...

Hawaii (4)

Washington (12)

California (55)

Illinois (20)

New York (29)

Washington, DC (3)

Maryland (10)

Delaware (3)

New Jersey (14)

Connecticut (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (4)

359 Romney to 179 Obama


28 posted on 10/22/2012 9:53:33 AM PDT by proudpapa
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To: GatorGirl

I was in West Palm about three weeks ago, and there were a few Romney yard signs around. More 0 signs though.


29 posted on 10/22/2012 10:00:06 AM PDT by from occupied ga (Your government is your most dangerous enemy)
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To: SeekAndFind; LucyT
You, like almost all electoral college vote counters, have at least one clear error on that list-you show Maine as four for Zero; in fact, Maine divides its votes on a Congressional district basis and Romney is going to carry one district in Maine so Romney gets at least one of those votes which could be important.

My own judgment is that Romney will also get Iowa off your list but that is as you recognize a close call.

But on your worst case list, Romney is at 278.

30 posted on 10/22/2012 10:14:44 AM PDT by David
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To: Biff55
You forgot to add the “mysterious 7 states”, to bring it up to 57.

Spain won't forget to county them.

31 posted on 10/22/2012 10:30:08 AM PDT by bgill (Evil doers are in every corner of our government. Have we passed the time of no return?)
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To: from occupied ga

Did you check for chairs? We and two neighbors have 3 empty chairs in our driveways.


32 posted on 10/22/2012 10:39:59 AM PDT by sanjuanbob
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To: from occupied ga

I am not yet confident of a Romney victory but it’s not too early to dread the ‘President In Exile’ scenario that will likely unfold if Obama loses.

The press, of course, will be happy to give him a platform to criticize every little thing. Obama, who lacks any sense of decorum or fair play, will be happy to spout off in front of any available microphone. Free from the responsibilities of office, he will jet around the country and the world actively undermining Romney & Co’s efforts to clean up the messes, especially as an election loss will represent an affront to his massive ego.


33 posted on 10/22/2012 10:46:57 AM PDT by relictele
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To: anonsquared
See my post #10. The beauty of changing to an apportioned California is it would not only put 25 electoral votes in the Republican column, it would also eliminate 25 electoral votes from the Democrat column.

The problem is that both houses and the governorship are RAT-controlled. It's a shame - I'd love to see apportionment in all states.

34 posted on 10/22/2012 10:56:51 AM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: SeekAndFind

All four are Democrat leaning states, for sure, but all could flip in a 1980 style blow-out. Bush actually won New Mexico in one of two very narrow elections and came close in Oregon once. Minnesota and Michigan are both chronically stupid, but trending Republican. They could flip for much the same reasons and demographics that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could flip, albeit less likely to do so.


35 posted on 10/22/2012 10:58:48 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind

I asked my stepmom in Iowa yesterday WTF was up with that state. She said it has always been goofy that way, despite all the working farmers and such. Said the presence of three big universities now brings in lots of liberal airheded students to further skew things. And of course those students vote absentee in their home state too.


36 posted on 10/22/2012 12:22:13 PM PDT by doorgunner69
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