What States Will Obama Win? (First in a Series)

Pajamas Media ^ | 10/22/2012 | Roger Kimball

[2001convSVT]

The state of Despair, which could be one of the 57 states President Obama won on the first go round.

[Doulos1]

All 57 states.

[GonzoGOP]

Of the states listed as going for Obama I think Romney will actually pick up Iowa and one of the four EV from Maine. On the down side I don't think it is likely we will pick up PA. It is still possible but any election where the GOP picks up PA it is unlikely they will need it.

[anonsquared]

See my post #10. The beauty of changing to an apportioned California is it would not only put 25 electoral votes in the Republican column, it would also eliminate 25 electoral votes from the Democrat column. The Dems count on those as gimmes and do not spend much of their resources here.

I don’t understand why TPTB in the Republican Party spend so much money in other states for single digit electoral votes and don’t fight for the conservative vote in California. Put an initiative on the ballot!

[GatorGirl]

Southeast Florida is a lost cause but I live in the I-4 Corridor and I don’t see any support for Obama at all. Not like last time.

Early voting starts next Saturday and lasts for one week.

And we have Photo ID!

[TYVets]

Your lists have been duly recorded by writing them on the wall for comparison on Nov 7.

[from occupied ga]

don’t fight for the conservative vote in California. Put an initiative on the ballot!

It's a matter of resource allocation. You could spend $100,000,000 on conservative (or in the case of Romney, moderate) advertising and STILL the voters in the left wing strongholds like San Francisco and Los Angeles would march off the left cliff and vote for the biggest communist they could find.

It isn't an accident that garbage like Pelosi gets re-elected by large margins in Kalifornistan. She and those like her accurately reflect the viewpoints of the majority of the voters in Kali.

[proudpapa]

Don’t be so pessimistic...

Hawaii (4)

Washington (12)

California (55)

Illinois (20)

New York (29)

Washington, DC (3)

Maryland (10)

Delaware (3)

New Jersey (14)

Connecticut (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (4)

359 Romney to 179 Obama

[from occupied ga]

I was in West Palm about three weeks ago, and there were a few Romney yard signs around. More 0 signs though.

[David]

You, like almost all electoral college vote counters, have at least one clear error on that list-you show Maine as four for Zero; in fact, Maine divides its votes on a Congressional district basis and Romney is going to carry one district in Maine so Romney gets at least one of those votes which could be important.

My own judgment is that Romney will also get Iowa off your list but that is as you recognize a close call.

But on your worst case list, Romney is at 278.

[bgill]

You forgot to add the “mysterious 7 states”, to bring it up to 57.

Spain won't forget to county them.

[sanjuanbob]

Did you check for chairs? We and two neighbors have 3 empty chairs in our driveways.

[relictele]

I am not yet confident of a Romney victory but it’s not too early to dread the ‘President In Exile’ scenario that will likely unfold if Obama loses.

The press, of course, will be happy to give him a platform to criticize every little thing. Obama, who lacks any sense of decorum or fair play, will be happy to spout off in front of any available microphone. Free from the responsibilities of office, he will jet around the country and the world actively undermining Romney & Co’s efforts to clean up the messes, especially as an election loss will represent an affront to his massive ego.

[Slings and Arrows]

See my post #10. The beauty of changing to an apportioned California is it would not only put 25 electoral votes in the Republican column, it would also eliminate 25 electoral votes from the Democrat column.

The problem is that both houses and the governorship are RAT-controlled. It's a shame - I'd love to see apportionment in all states.

[Vigilanteman]

All four are Democrat leaning states, for sure, but all could flip in a 1980 style blow-out. Bush actually won New Mexico in one of two very narrow elections and came close in Oregon once. Minnesota and Michigan are both chronically stupid, but trending Republican. They could flip for much the same reasons and demographics that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could flip, albeit less likely to do so.

[doorgunner69]

I asked my stepmom in Iowa yesterday WTF was up with that state. She said it has always been goofy that way, despite all the working farmers and such. Said the presence of three big universities now brings in lots of liberal airheded students to further skew things. And of course those students vote absentee in their home state too.