Skip to comments.Gallup Tracking Poll: R51/O45
Posted on 10/22/2012 10:03:33 AM PDT by tatown
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Steady as she goes.
Drudge has several photos from Obama's foreign trips.
"I'll carry that for you, sir."
("A few years ago this guy would be carrying our bags...." Bill Clinton.)
This has been holding pretty steady. 6-7 points with two weeks to go is a good place to be. Beats the other way around. Gallup has been around a long long time.
0 at 45 - add 3+ for Romney.... at 45 no way O is going to win this election.
Stick a fork in him - he’s done.
Hmmm, Romney’s lost a point since yesterday. Did Obama go to church or something?
This poll has been solid as a rock. Wow, Obama’s handlers in the media can’t be happy with staying at 45% day after day.
He went to the tele-mosque.
Important point: Obama doesn’t rise above 45% on any given day for this poll. Romney just bounces up and down at 51-52%.
Due to the fact that this is a 7 day poll, it is impossible to read very much into day to day movements. I wonder if they are going to switch to a 3 day poll in the final week?
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Gallup have essentially the same numbers for Obama and McCain at this point in the election in 2008 (with Obama in the lead at that time)?
Man, Obama’s gotta be sweating it out for the debate tonight. Romney can kill him with any combination of:
1. Libya and the attacks before the final raid on the Bengazi consulate.
2. Fast and Furious and the 200 related dead Mexicans. (Bob will try to claim this is domestic)
3. Obama’s “Flexibility” moment with Medvedev.
4. Arab Spring and people being crucified in Egypt.
5. Bowing to others.
6. Chavez, Castro, Putin, and other dictators supporting Obama.
I really hope Romney will romperstomp Obama and Obama cracks. I want to see the real side of Obama.
“I’ll lick that for you, sir.”
“Steady as she goes”
I agree. This is good news. Obama is stuck at 45%.
O stuck at 45 in Gallup. Just like the Monmouth Poll.
Four other polls have him stuck at 47: Rasmussen, ARG, NBC, and Politico/GW.
45 and 47 are static and bad places to be for an incumbent.
On October 22, 2008 Gallup had it: Obama-50/McCain-46 LV’s.
Anyone know when the garbage IBD/TIPP tracking poll comes out today?
In 2008 Obama went up 2+ on Election Night and Romney will probably go up 3+.
In other news, the head of the Gallup polling services was seen being escorted, handcuffed into a car by federal agents. A DOJ statement said he was being investigated for the publication of an anti-islamic video that was complimentary to the Prophet Mohammed, but disparaged the Prophet Obama.
When the history of this election is written, the Gallup poll is going to play a central role. From it being sued by Axelrod/DOj to its October Surprise of ruining Obama’s inevitability meme.
On Oct 22, 2008, Obama was up 50-46.
Incumbents lose 3 points over the final 3 weeks on Gallup, with most of that coming off the final week. Carter in 1980, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 1992, and Bush in 2004 all lost 3 points in Gallup polling over the final weeks.
If that happens in 2012, Obama will be pushed down to 42% of the vote by election day.
Is this the same as yesterday?
Obama 53 and McCain 46 was the final result.
Interesting to note that the final Gallup poll had 7% of the electorate undecided and almost all of them ended up voting the McCain/Palin ticket. Most likely we had the "white guilt" factor in play where many voters didn't want to admit to favoring the white guy over the black guy.
So chances are, we have the same dynamic in place this year which could potentially yield a 55-45% Romney victory when all is said and done. Don't see Obama getting much more than the 45% he already has and might even lose a point or two after tonight's debate if Obama's performance is weak.
We have never weighted polls by party affiliation - Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of Gallup.
Party affiliation follows the way a person is currently inclined to vote and party affiliation doesnt drive how someone votes.
We only ask the person after we have polled them who they currently self-identify with at the end of the poll for informational purposes.
Somebody explain to me how such a methodology is better and more accurate than the others.
O is feeling the pressure! I’m sure he knows nothing he does tonight will change things. The only question left to be asked is whether he can accept defeat with dignity and good grace. O has never tasted adversity. Let’s see how he handles it.
7 full days post 2nd debate. LOL.
Well let the past results speak for themselves. Gallup has been in the presidential polling business since 1936 and the only time they screwed up was the Dewey/Truman race in 1948. I think that's a pretty good track record.
Romney cratering! obama surging! (right?)
I listened to a Gallup talking head on some Fox show yesterday, and he said they don’t use party ID weighting at all at Gallup. He said they considered it to be an attitude (hope I’m using the right word), and that it fluctuates with the candidate the person is supporting.
As I understand the logic from those who use party ID weighting, they believe that party affiliation is a long term position held by a person that does not fluctuate in terms of their answering which party they ID themselves with. Those that use party id, like Rasmussen, then adjust it based on other elements of a secret sauce formula that they apply.
The guy from Gallup made a compelling case. I think Rasmussen’s numbers have been closest for a number of election cycles now, so I wouldn’t discount his secret sauce just yet.
They both have Romney up, but Gallup by about 6 and Ras by about 2.
Rasmussen hx. 08.
Check their record for the last 60 years or so. Their final polls have been pretty close in nearly every election. They had 49-48 for Ford in 1976 which went 50.1-48.1 for Carter. That's the worst they've been. They've rarely overestimated the GOP candidate.
If Romney wins would that be a mandate to gut big government?
Based on past polling tracking history, tonight is not going to change the momentum of the race - once you give away your lead, its impossible to get it back.
And with Obama stuck at 45% - he has a lot of people to persuade him to give him another chance. Not likely since he’s a known quantity.
This election is all about the economy, stupid.
Obama stuck at 45% for six straight days - seems pretty definitive.....
The problem with some of these +9% Democrat polls may not be from their failure to weight by party, but their sampling techniques. The phone lists they’re using may be contacting too many Democrat households.
OMG, that's funny. Thanks for the new meme.
While I disagree with that to some degree....would rather weight.....it has some logic to it that affiliation is a changing variable and not necessarily something you can rely on.
There may be a lot of Dems voting Obama or something, who knows.
Next week-7 to 9 days from today is key. If this holds and its 51-52 then, its just about done.
Romney needs to run like he is 20 points down, all the way to election night.
|Year||Nominees||Final Poll||Election Results||Deviation|
|2004||George W. Bush||49||50.7||-2|
|John F. Kerry||49||48.3||+1|
|2000||George W. Bush||48||47.9||0|
|Albert Gore, Jr.||46||48.4||-2|
|1996||William J. Clinton||52||49.2||+3|
|H. Ross Perot||7||8.4||-1|
|1992||William J. Clinton||49||43.0||+6|
|H. Ross Perot||14||18.9||-5|
|Walter F. Mondale||41||40.6||0|
|Hubert H. Humphrey||42||42.7||-1|
|1964||Lyndon B. Johnson||64||61.1||+3|
|1960||John F. Kennedy||51||49.7||+1|
|1948||Harry S. Truman||44.5||49.5||-5|
|Thomas E. Dewey||49.5||45.1||-4|
|1944||Franklin D. Roosevelt||51.5||53.4||-2|
|Thomas E. Dewey||48.5||45.9||+3|
|1940||Franklin D. Roosevelt||52||54.7||-3|
|Wendell L. Willkie||48||44.8||+3|
|1936||Franklin D. Roosevelt||55.7||60.8||-5|
|Alfred M. Landon||44.3||36.5||+8|
Of course, they would have got completely different, economy-driven responses, if they’d just asked the women what is most important in the race.
But once they qualify it as a query on ‘issues for women’, the respondents somewhat naturally look to prioritize among those ‘women’s issues’. Made up news intended to help Obama. I guess Axelrod must be pressing on Gallup pretty hard.
I am not sure if Romney would lose even if he said tonight a true gaffe like calling Britain an enemy or something.
I do worry about an Allred October surprise but not any Iran deal. That won’t hurt, though Allred could if the campaign is not prepared to strike back immediately.
I hope they are aware of the rumors out there so they can immediately counter the claims with rebuttal witnesses as soon as it comes out.
We now know that only 9% of all calls result in interviews.
Assembling a random sample of the entire universe out of a sample that represents only one-in-eleven is virtually impossible.
Most of the polls weight for the standard demographics -- age, race, gender, income, education, etc. But they do not weight for party identification, simply accepting whatever the result is.
Given the weighting by race, the continual over-sampling of Democrats is obviously an artifact of white Democrats being more likely to answer the phone and respond to a pollster than are white Republicans.
If you will note, Gallup was low by 2% in 2004 and 2008 for the GOP candidate. They pretty much nailed the GOP numbers in 1996 and 2000. If anything, Gallup tends to report the DEM numbers a bit too high.
“Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, ROMNEY LEADS Obama BY 7 POINTS, 52 PERCENT TO 45 PERCENT.”
I am wondering who is it that is getting polled? I never answer my phone unless I recognize the caller ID. Otherwise, it goes to voice mail, and I call back if it is someone I want to speak with.
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