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Gallup Tracking Poll: R51/O45
Gallup ^ | 10/22 | Gallup

Posted on 10/22/2012 10:03:33 AM PDT by tatown

Romney-51/Obama-45

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; poll
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1 posted on 10/22/2012 10:03:36 AM PDT by tatown
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To: LS; Perdogg; SoftwareEngineer; nhwingut; HamiltonJay

Steady as she goes.


2 posted on 10/22/2012 10:04:35 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown
KSFO San Francisco Morning Show hosts identify new disease likely to cause voters to vote for Romney.. irritable bowing syndrome

Drudge has several photos from Obama's foreign trips.

"I'll carry that for you, sir."

("A few years ago this guy would be carrying our bags...." Bill Clinton.)

3 posted on 10/22/2012 10:06:20 AM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: tatown

This has been holding pretty steady. 6-7 points with two weeks to go is a good place to be. Beats the other way around. Gallup has been around a long long time.


4 posted on 10/22/2012 10:06:24 AM PDT by Tuxedo (Drink Tea - not Kool-Aid.)
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To: tatown

0 at 45 - add 3+ for Romney.... at 45 no way O is going to win this election.

Stick a fork in him - he’s done.


5 posted on 10/22/2012 10:06:27 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: tatown

Hmmm, Romney’s lost a point since yesterday. Did Obama go to church or something?


6 posted on 10/22/2012 10:06:46 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: tatown

This poll has been solid as a rock. Wow, Obama’s handlers in the media can’t be happy with staying at 45% day after day.


7 posted on 10/22/2012 10:07:29 AM PDT by scottinoc
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To: sirchtruth

He went to the tele-mosque.


8 posted on 10/22/2012 10:07:58 AM PDT by Salvey
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To: tatown

Important point: Obama doesn’t rise above 45% on any given day for this poll. Romney just bounces up and down at 51-52%.


9 posted on 10/22/2012 10:08:02 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: tatown

Due to the fact that this is a 7 day poll, it is impossible to read very much into day to day movements. I wonder if they are going to switch to a 3 day poll in the final week?


10 posted on 10/22/2012 10:08:10 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Tuxedo

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Gallup have essentially the same numbers for Obama and McCain at this point in the election in 2008 (with Obama in the lead at that time)?

Speaks volumes...


11 posted on 10/22/2012 10:10:31 AM PDT by wolf24
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To: tatown

Man, Obama’s gotta be sweating it out for the debate tonight. Romney can kill him with any combination of:
1. Libya and the attacks before the final raid on the Bengazi consulate.
2. Fast and Furious and the 200 related dead Mexicans. (Bob will try to claim this is domestic)
3. Obama’s “Flexibility” moment with Medvedev.
4. Arab Spring and people being crucified in Egypt.
5. Bowing to others.
6. Chavez, Castro, Putin, and other dictators supporting Obama.

I really hope Romney will romperstomp Obama and Obama cracks. I want to see the real side of Obama.


12 posted on 10/22/2012 10:12:39 AM PDT by struggle (http://killthegovernment.wordpress.com/)
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To: WilliamofCarmichael

“I’ll lick that for you, sir.”


13 posted on 10/22/2012 10:12:47 AM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: tatown

“Steady as she goes”

I agree. This is good news. Obama is stuck at 45%.


14 posted on 10/22/2012 10:13:06 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: tatown

O stuck at 45 in Gallup. Just like the Monmouth Poll.

Four other polls have him stuck at 47: Rasmussen, ARG, NBC, and Politico/GW.

45 and 47 are static and bad places to be for an incumbent.


15 posted on 10/22/2012 10:13:25 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: wolf24

On October 22, 2008 Gallup had it: Obama-50/McCain-46 LV’s.


16 posted on 10/22/2012 10:15:28 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown

Anyone know when the garbage IBD/TIPP tracking poll comes out today?


17 posted on 10/22/2012 10:15:41 AM PDT by Marathoner (If the bastard were to win reelection, let America burn. IDGAF anymore.)
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To: tatown

In 2008 Obama went up 2+ on Election Night and Romney will probably go up 3+.


18 posted on 10/22/2012 10:17:58 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: tatown

In other news, the head of the Gallup polling services was seen being escorted, handcuffed into a car by federal agents. A DOJ statement said he was being investigated for the publication of an anti-islamic video that was complimentary to the Prophet Mohammed, but disparaged the Prophet Obama.


19 posted on 10/22/2012 10:18:21 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: FlipWilson

When the history of this election is written, the Gallup poll is going to play a central role. From it being sued by Axelrod/DOj to its October Surprise of ruining Obama’s inevitability meme.


20 posted on 10/22/2012 10:20:21 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: wolf24

On Oct 22, 2008, Obama was up 50-46.


21 posted on 10/22/2012 10:23:37 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: goldstategop

Incumbents lose 3 points over the final 3 weeks on Gallup, with most of that coming off the final week. Carter in 1980, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 1992, and Bush in 2004 all lost 3 points in Gallup polling over the final weeks.

If that happens in 2012, Obama will be pushed down to 42% of the vote by election day.


22 posted on 10/22/2012 10:25:13 AM PDT by paglia444
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To: tatown

Is this the same as yesterday?


23 posted on 10/22/2012 10:26:16 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Yesterday 52-45.


24 posted on 10/22/2012 10:27:32 AM PDT by Tuxedo (Drink Tea - not Kool-Aid.)
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To: wolf24
Gallup had identical numbers at this point in 2008 - Obama up 51-45. I believe the numbers got to 49-46 for Obama about 10 days out but then Obama started pulling away - I think final Gallup poll that year was Obama 53 and McCain 40 with 7% undecided.

Obama 53 and McCain 46 was the final result.

Interesting to note that the final Gallup poll had 7% of the electorate undecided and almost all of them ended up voting the McCain/Palin ticket. Most likely we had the "white guilt" factor in play where many voters didn't want to admit to favoring the white guy over the black guy.

So chances are, we have the same dynamic in place this year which could potentially yield a 55-45% Romney victory when all is said and done. Don't see Obama getting much more than the 45% he already has and might even lose a point or two after tonight's debate if Obama's performance is weak.

25 posted on 10/22/2012 10:28:40 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: tatown

“We have never weighted polls by party affiliation” - Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of Gallup.

Party affiliation follows the way a person is currently inclined to vote and party affiliation doesn’t drive how someone votes.

“We only ask the person after we have polled them who they currently self-identify with at the end of the poll for informational purposes.”

See here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2948176/posts?page=1

Somebody explain to me how such a methodology is better and more accurate than the others.


26 posted on 10/22/2012 10:28:46 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: nhwingut

O is feeling the pressure! I’m sure he knows nothing he does tonight will change things. The only question left to be asked is whether he can accept defeat with dignity and good grace. O has never tasted adversity. Let’s see how he handles it.


27 posted on 10/22/2012 10:28:55 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

7 full days post 2nd debate. LOL.


28 posted on 10/22/2012 10:30:32 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Somebody explain to me how such a methodology is better and more accurate than the others.

Well let the past results speak for themselves. Gallup has been in the presidential polling business since 1936 and the only time they screwed up was the Dewey/Truman race in 1948. I think that's a pretty good track record.

29 posted on 10/22/2012 10:32:54 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: tatown

Romney cratering! obama surging! (right?)


30 posted on 10/22/2012 10:34:02 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: SeekAndFind

31 posted on 10/22/2012 10:34:07 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I listened to a Gallup talking head on some Fox show yesterday, and he said they don’t use party ID weighting at all at Gallup. He said they considered it to be an attitude (hope I’m using the right word), and that it fluctuates with the candidate the person is supporting.

As I understand the logic from those who use party ID weighting, they believe that party affiliation is a long term position held by a person that does not fluctuate in terms of their answering which party they ID themselves with. Those that use party id, like Rasmussen, then adjust it based on other elements of a secret sauce formula that they apply.

The guy from Gallup made a compelling case. I think Rasmussen’s numbers have been closest for a number of election cycles now, so I wouldn’t discount his secret sauce just yet.

They both have Romney up, but Gallup by about 6 and Ras by about 2.


32 posted on 10/22/2012 10:35:06 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: struggle
I really hope Romney will romperstomp Obama and Obama cracks. I want to see the real side of Obama.

I hope he goes with all six options. Just keep hammering Obama. Every time he tries to change the subject change it back to how he has screwed up.

Curbstomp Song
Now just watch: and you will see.
battles that should never be
Here they come; they're charging us
why should we put up a fuss
It's a war that won't last long
and why I sing THE CURBSTOMP SONG!

When a fight is just plain wrong
We all sing the Curbstomp Song
People dying left and right
It’s a slaughter, not a fight!

Start a brawl that can’t be won,
See our boots E-CLIPSE the sun.
Either swallow bitter truth
or eat curb and lose a tooth.


33 posted on 10/22/2012 10:36:58 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Gallup hx.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/preferences.php

Rasmussen hx. 08.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2008/2008_presidential_election


34 posted on 10/22/2012 10:37:01 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: SeekAndFind
"Somebody explain to me how such a methodology is better and more accurate than the others."

Check their record for the last 60 years or so. Their final polls have been pretty close in nearly every election. They had 49-48 for Ford in 1976 which went 50.1-48.1 for Carter. That's the worst they've been. They've rarely overestimated the GOP candidate.

35 posted on 10/22/2012 10:37:27 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: tatown

If Romney wins would that be a mandate to gut big government?


36 posted on 10/22/2012 10:38:52 AM PDT by Leep (Forward! to serfdom)
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To: xzins

Based on past polling tracking history, tonight is not going to change the momentum of the race - once you give away your lead, its impossible to get it back.

And with Obama stuck at 45% - he has a lot of people to persuade him to give him another chance. Not likely since he’s a known quantity.

This election is all about the economy, stupid.


37 posted on 10/22/2012 10:40:29 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: tatown

Obama stuck at 45% for six straight days - seems pretty definitive.....


38 posted on 10/22/2012 10:40:29 AM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: xzins

The problem with some of these +9% Democrat polls may not be from their failure to weight by party, but their sampling techniques. The phone lists they’re using may be contacting too many Democrat households.


39 posted on 10/22/2012 10:41:16 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: FlipWilson
...disparaged the Prophet Obama.

OMG, that's funny. Thanks for the new meme.

40 posted on 10/22/2012 10:43:55 AM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: SeekAndFind

While I disagree with that to some degree....would rather weight.....it has some logic to it that affiliation is a changing variable and not necessarily something you can rely on.

There may be a lot of Dems voting Obama or something, who knows.


41 posted on 10/22/2012 10:45:07 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: tatown

Next week-7 to 9 days from today is key. If this holds and its 51-52 then, its just about done.

Romney needs to run like he is 20 points down, all the way to election night.


42 posted on 10/22/2012 10:45:14 AM PDT by crz
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To: CatOwner
FROM GALLUP's OWN WEBSITE :


Election Year Presidential Preferences: Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
1936 - 2008

Year Nominees Final Poll Election Results Deviation
2008 Barack Obama 55 52.6  -2
John McCain 44 46.0 +2
2004 George W. Bush 49 50.7  -2
John F. Kerry 49 48.3 +1
2000 George W. Bush 48 47.9   0
Albert Gore, Jr. 46 48.4  -2
Ralph Nader 4   2.7 +1
1996 William J. Clinton 52 49.2 +3
Robert Dole 41 40.7  0
H. Ross Perot 7   8.4 -1
1992 William J. Clinton 49 43.0 +6
George Bush 37 37.4   0
H. Ross Perot 14 18.9 -5
1988 George Bush 56 53.4 +3
Michael Dukakis 44 45.6  -2
1984 Ronald Reagan 59 58.8  0
Walter F. Mondale 41 40.6  0
1980 Ronald Reagan 47 50.7  -4
Jimmy Carter 44 41.0 +3
John Anderson 8   6.6 +1
1976 Jimmy Carter 48 50.1  -2
Gerald Ford 49 48.0 +1
1972 Richard Nixon 62 60.7 +1
George McGovern 38 37.5   0
1968 Richard Nixon 43 43.4   0
Hubert H. Humphrey 42 42.7  -1
George Wallace 15 13.5 +1
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 64 61.1 +3
Barry Goldwater 36 38.5  -3
1960 John F. Kennedy 51 49.7 +1
Richard Nixon 49 49.5  -1
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 59.5 57.4 +2
Adlai Stevenson 40.5 42.0  -2
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 51 55.1  -4
Adlai Stevenson 49 44.4 +5
1948 Harry S. Truman 44.5 49.5  -5
Thomas E. Dewey 49.5 45.1  -4
Strom Thurmond 4   2.4 +2
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 51.5 53.4  -2
Thomas E. Dewey 48.5 45.9 +3
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 52 54.7  -3
Wendell L. Willkie 48 44.8 +3
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 55.7 60.8  -5
Alfred M. Landon 44.3 36.5 +8


43 posted on 10/22/2012 10:45:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: tatown

Of course, they would have got completely different, economy-driven responses, if they’d just asked the women what is most important in the race.

But once they qualify it as a query on ‘issues for women’, the respondents somewhat naturally look to prioritize among those ‘women’s issues’. Made up news intended to help Obama. I guess Axelrod must be pressing on Gallup pretty hard.


44 posted on 10/22/2012 10:47:23 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: goldstategop

I am not sure if Romney would lose even if he said tonight a true gaffe like calling Britain an enemy or something.

I do worry about an Allred October surprise but not any Iran deal. That won’t hurt, though Allred could if the campaign is not prepared to strike back immediately.

I hope they are aware of the rumors out there so they can immediately counter the claims with rebuttal witnesses as soon as it comes out.


45 posted on 10/22/2012 10:51:39 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Arthurio
The phone lists they’re using may be contacting too many Democrat households.

We now know that only 9% of all calls result in interviews.

Assembling a random sample of the entire universe out of a sample that represents only one-in-eleven is virtually impossible.

Most of the polls weight for the standard demographics -- age, race, gender, income, education, etc. But they do not weight for party identification, simply accepting whatever the result is.

Given the weighting by race, the continual over-sampling of Democrats is obviously an artifact of white Democrats being more likely to answer the phone and respond to a pollster than are white Republicans.

46 posted on 10/22/2012 10:53:13 AM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: FReepers; FRiends; everyone; RedMDer; DJ MacWoW

"We're down to the final months of the president's term ... You have to wonder what obama's thinking: So little time, so much to redistribute."

GO ROMNEY!


Please Support Free Republic Today!

47 posted on 10/22/2012 10:53:14 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: SeekAndFind
Yes, pretty much proves my point. Since 1952, fairly accurate. Gallup determined after the 1948 election that he had a methodology issue and corrected it.

If you will note, Gallup was low by 2% in 2004 and 2008 for the GOP candidate. They pretty much nailed the GOP numbers in 1996 and 2000. If anything, Gallup tends to report the DEM numbers a bit too high.

48 posted on 10/22/2012 10:54:38 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: tatown
This is the message that came along with today's Battleground poll showing Romney +2 overall.

“Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, ROMNEY LEADS Obama BY 7 POINTS, 52 PERCENT TO 45 PERCENT.”

49 posted on 10/22/2012 10:54:46 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: okie01

I am wondering who is it that is getting polled? I never answer my phone unless I recognize the caller ID. Otherwise, it goes to voice mail, and I call back if it is someone I want to speak with.


50 posted on 10/22/2012 10:56:27 AM PDT by Arthurio
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