Posted on 10/22/2012 10:48:56 AM PDT by Arthurio
Suffolk Poll of Ohio: Tied at 47% Sample is D+4. Sample voted for Obama in 08 by 6% (he won by 5%)
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I believe Suffolk is the polling outfit that all but conceded Florida, North Carolina AND Virginia to Romney.
They said over a week ago that they’re not going to put more resources polling those states.
Reality returns. O stuck at 47%. Romney will win.
so, there are about 6% still undecided in the Buckeye state.
If Dick Morris’ historical observations are correct and 70% of undecideds go to the challenger most of the time, that means Romney will win 51 to 49 in the end.
But then, why should one want to believe Dick?
I doubt OH has a +4 Rat turnout and +4 women turnout.
26% union households? Are 26% of households in OH union?
I don't know about the gender differences in turnout, but D +4 isn't too far off; It was D +8 in 2008, and R +1 in 2010. Democrats have a registration advantage statewide, so a slightly higher Democrat sample makes sense. Also, it is a virtual certainty that Romney will gain more votes from registered Democrats than The Empty Chair will from GOPers, helping to negate the registration advantage.
My own guess is that the turnout will be D +2, and that Romney's victory in Ohio will be virtually identical to the 2004 win by George Bush, about 100,000 votes and a 51-49 margin. I think Romney is ahead by a bit, and that his lead will grow from now until Election Day.
One factor going unnoticed in the media is the intervention of the National Rifle Association; the NRA is behind a huge advertising blitz underway here - I'm seeing many more NRA ads than Romney ads in NW Ohio. NRA's political director believes they can add as much as 2 points to Romney's margin in most states, and they could very well put him over the top here.
You stuck all the bullet points in the headline. LOL! Like a tweet.
A further note - the Suffolk Poll out today shows the race tied 47-47, but the Suffolk Poll published 10/20/08 showed Obama winning 51-42, a nine point margin. Obama actually won 51.5-46.91, a margin of just over 4.5%.
A four percent oversample of Democrats is about right for Ohio. However 2% of the self proclaimed “Likely Voters” said they had never heard of Barack Obama. Seriously if you don’t know who the president is I don’t think you will be getting to the polls on election day.
The bottomline, whether nationally, or in each swing state, Obama can not get to 50% - aside from CBS/Q poll with the D+9 sample.
Did you see Nate Silver’s post today. He is back pedaling faster then a NFL cornerback.
We could use some cornerbacks here in New England.
Once I learned that he worked for Obama at one point, I've ignored him since.
Good poll with lots of internals.
In 2008, Obama received 1.098 votes for every McCain vote.
In this sample, there are 1.146 Obama voters for every McCain voter.
Obama had a margin of 4.59% in ‘08. If this sample were extrapolated onto the ‘08 election results, Obama would have won by 6.67% in ‘08.
Assuming people are accurately reporting who they voted for in ‘08, this poll is likely oversampling Obama voters by about 2 points.
Further, if you look at the undecideds, they are 5%, and of those who indicate who they are likely to vote for, Romney gets twice as many as Obama.
In short, the poll suggests Romney might be slightly ahead right now, and that undecided will likely break is way.
This looks like a 3-4 point Romney win, assuming current trajectories and the accuracy of the poll.
I hope you’re right the NRA adds two points.
Once I learned that he worked for Obama at one point, I’ve ignored him since.
He was leaked internal polls from the Obama people in 2008, he sucked in 2010. Just love to see him slowly turning into 2012’s Zoqby.
One more tidbit from the Suffolk internals (they are really good at publishing all of their data): in this pool of 600 Likely voters, 47% of them voted for Obama in 2008, and only 41% voted for McCain, with 10% not voting or refusing to answer. Given that 2008 was an historic, “change” election that would have pushed Democrat turnout to record highs, the odds are good that those persons saying they will vote this time but did not vote for Obama in 2008 are not going to show up to pull the lever for him this time - most of them, I would bet, will vote for Romney.
I consider a state officially “called” when Suffolk pulls out of it.
Let’s hope they pull out of Ohio soon.
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