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PPP (D) Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0, 47% [+6% Democrat, 55% women]
PPP ^

Posted on 10/22/2012 10:48:03 PM PDT by Arthurio

PPP (D) Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0, 47% [+6% Democrat, 55% women]

This covers 10-20 to 10-22, but prior to debate

(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012debates; 2012polls

1 posted on 10/22/2012 10:48:11 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Game Over!


2 posted on 10/22/2012 10:50:43 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: Arthurio

This is a DEM pollester.. It could be raising the bar, so they can show him having a better serge after this debate.. Foiled!.. LOL


3 posted on 10/22/2012 10:51:23 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: Arthurio

Ooh, those numbers are significant.


4 posted on 10/22/2012 10:52:03 PM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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To: carlo3b; LS; Perdogg

The internals of this poll are even more dreadful for Obama than the top line...45% job approval, and mitt has higher personal favorability numbers


5 posted on 10/22/2012 10:53:49 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

“Big Bird, Binders, Horses and Bayonets!” Sorry that’s all we’ve got! - DNC


6 posted on 10/22/2012 10:54:31 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Get the transcript Candy! - Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: Arthurio

Romney +9 with Indies.

Obammy with 51% Disapproval.

I personally don’t think this election is over yet, but those are devastating numbers for an incumbent to have two weeks before the election.


7 posted on 10/22/2012 10:55:03 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Arthurio; All

How much movement does everyone predict tonight’s debate will bring to the polls?


8 posted on 10/22/2012 10:57:16 PM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: Arthurio

Look at the D+ oversampling and packing it in with female voters.

Even with those advantages, all O can manage is 47%.

I don’t see him getting out of the cellar in the next two weeks.

Game over, indeed.


9 posted on 10/22/2012 10:57:26 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

“55% women”

Ouch!


10 posted on 10/22/2012 10:59:58 PM PDT by stanne
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To: Arthurio

The 45% is about all the percentage he’ll get on Election Day.

He needs to raise that number and he’s underwater. Privately, Democrats are going to write him off but they won’t say so publicly for if the base stays home, it’ll have a devastating effect on down ballot races particularly for the Senate.

And the media will prop him up like Bernie’s if only for that reason.


11 posted on 10/22/2012 11:01:52 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: stanne

““55% women”

We are all assuming those are ‘women”. A woman to a lib Dumocrat is also a flaming fag.


12 posted on 10/22/2012 11:02:34 PM PDT by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: Arthurio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

It seems PPP knows what is up and will continue with biased polls. Future business be damned.

Poll ping.


13 posted on 10/22/2012 11:03:07 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Arthurio

Barry didn’t get any bounce for the 2nd debate and the MSM were far more tickled about that performance than they are about this one.
Although Romney let a number of easy kills go by, he did what was necessary—he made no dumb statements and gave the media no ammunition to take into the last couple of weeks.


14 posted on 10/22/2012 11:09:26 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Arthurio
Game over

Agreed. This is one more in a long series of polls in which Obama cannot get above 47%. Interestingly, Karl Rove had the same number for Obama on his chalkboard in his interview on Greta after the debate. Obama has hit his ceiling.

So to put in terms of numbers what we all had been talking about in words, Obama's problem and his unavoidable failsafe in this debate was to do something which would elevate him above 47%. He could have been very passive and hope that Romney committed a gaffe but Romney is not the gaffe type. Obama knew this was the bottom of the ninth so he took is only option, he swung for the fences and tried to provoke Romney into a gaffe or at least disparage him enough so that the numbers would change.

But the problem for Obama is that disparaging Romney hardly elevates Obama's numbers. Obama's numbers are stuck at 47% because the remaining 48% or 49%, at least, have made up their minds and they are unalterably opposed to giving Obama four more years.

Consider Obama's dilemma going into the debate. His record is terrible and therefore he cannot run on his record. He made a decision long ago to run a campaign of diversion hoping to destroy Romney as a viable candidate so that Obama could stop him at one of his firewalls. Romney dismantled this strategy in his first debate. This third debate is nothing but a reprise of the second debate which in its turn was an attempt to accomplish in the debate forum what Obama had squandered hundreds of millions of dollars to accomplish with television advertising. In other words, Obama is still trying to gain by tearing down Romney.

But Obama's problem is not that Romney is held in high esteem and is vulnerable to personal attack, Obama's problem is that the electorate has made a judgment about Obama and more than half the people have decided against him. Attacking Romney does not rehabilitate Obama. Attacking Romney does not even bring Romney down to the point where the electorate says a plague on both your houses and so we better stay with the devil we know. That only works if Romney walks into the trap.

So when we say that Romney looked "presidential" in a debate we mean simply that Obama has not solved his dilemma. His problem is mathematical and these numbers will not change absent a major gaffe, deus ex machina, or an October surprise . The first did not happen, the second will not happen, and the third may yet play out-but I do not think so.


15 posted on 10/22/2012 11:12:27 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

I agree - and when your opponent is more likeable than you are - negative campaigning reaches a point of diminishing returns.

Obama has not the given the country a reason why it should vote FOR him.

He missed three opportunities to give it that reason. And right now Mittens can play it safe and run out the clock.


16 posted on 10/22/2012 11:19:49 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

BIG BIRD, BINDERS, BAYONETS

17 posted on 10/22/2012 11:24:42 PM PDT by PhilDragoo (Hussein: Islamo-Commie from Fakistan)
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To: goldstategop
Halfway through the debate when it became abundantly clear what Obama was doing, it occurred to me that Romney is protecting a lead. That means that Romney does not think he is one or two points behind in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, it means that Romney's internal polling is telling him that he is ahead. One does not play it safe if one is behind or if one is tied. Tied is not enough too coast with because it is too risky when one faces the power of the president's incumbency.

Romney's internal polling gave him the confidence to debate the way he did. All Romney wanted to do was make tonight a non event. Only a winner passes up an opportunity. A winner says, why take the risk?

I have no doubt that Romney knows he is sitting on a bankable lead at least in Ohio and probably as a backup in Wisconsin and Iowa and he gets over-the-top either way because he has already sewn up Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

If these assumptions about the subsidiary states Florida North Carolina Virginia New Hampshire and Colorado are true, Obama is not in a position to stop Romney with just one state because Romney has 261 electoral college votes, he must run the board. He must win Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and one of either Nevada or Iowa. Considered in this light, Obama's task is daunting indeed, especially for someone who is feet are stuck in tar and cannot get above 47%.

Consider in the light of geography, Romney's strategy is more than reasonable.


18 posted on 10/22/2012 11:39:07 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: Arthurio
Geeez, thats gonna smart.. You have to wonder what the real internals are.. I have been watching the talking heads on MSNBC, no surprises as we would expect, but I was watching their body language.. They are always so wacko, I couldn't pick up any tells.. :)
19 posted on 10/22/2012 11:52:54 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: nathanbedford

The only two two big states O has sewn up are NY and CA.

And if his numbers take a fall, WA and OR could even come into play along with NM, MI and possibly NJ and ME.

Obama cannot afford any further erosion in his numbers. He cannot lose more ground.

Romney on the other hand is in the catbird’s seat. He can decide where to campaign, pick targets of opportunity and force O to defend terrain he must keep to prevent the election from turning into an electoral rout.

No matter how one looks at it, there are no upsides for Obama this year.


20 posted on 10/22/2012 11:54:35 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: nathanbedford

I think your analysis is spot on. You can’t be up 2 or so nationally and down 2 in Ohio. Ohio has patterned the national numbers within a point or two dating back to like Carter/Ford.

I think FL, CO and NC are near-locks and VA is strongly trending Romney.

NH and IA are slight leans.

Obama pretty much needs to sweep the remaining board to win. Romney takes Ohio and it’s over.

There was a reason Romney mentioned Pennsylvania and Wisconsin when personalizing to questions to voters today. Those states are true battleground states. As they should be when an incumbent can’t break 50% with two weeks left in an election cycle,


21 posted on 10/22/2012 11:56:25 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: nathanbedford

“Halfway through the debate when it became abundantly clear what Obama was doing, it occurred to me that Romney is protecting a lead. That means that Romney does not think he is one or two points behind in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, it means that Romney’s internal polling is telling him that he is ahead. One does not play it safe if one is behind or if one is tied. Tied is not enough too coast with because it is too risky when one faces the power of the president’s incumbency.

Romney’s internal polling gave him the confidence to debate the way he did. All Romney wanted to do was make tonight a non event. Only a winner passes up an opportunity. A winner says, why take the risk?

I have no doubt that Romney knows he is sitting on a bankable lead at least in Ohio and probably as a backup in Wisconsin and Iowa and he gets over-the-top either way because he has already sewn up Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

If these assumptions about the subsidiary states Florida North Carolina Virginia New Hampshire and Colorado are true, Obama is not in a position to stop Romney with just one state because Romney has 261 electoral college votes, he must run the board. He must win Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and one of either Nevada or Iowa. Considered in this light, Obama’s task is daunting indeed, especially for someone who is feet are stuck in tar and cannot get above 47%.

Consider in the light of geography, Romney’s strategy is more than reasonable.”

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS. Worth repeating in full. Well put, nathanbedford.


22 posted on 10/22/2012 11:57:40 PM PDT by Factfinder
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To: nathanbedford

Excellent analysis Nathanbedford! Best critique of strategic analysis I have read thus far. Obama appeared to me to be extremely stressed. He had almost a look of being deranged in his eyes. There is definite panic and uncertainty going on there. I think his claim that China is an adversary in the same sentence with Iran when discussing America’s biggest great was a hug gaffe. Romney caught it and handled it beautifully, I wonder if the media will pick up on it...


23 posted on 10/23/2012 12:05:59 AM PDT by Wpin ("I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny...")
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To: nathanbedford

I agree with your analysis.

You have been more spot on with these debates than any of the talking heads in the media.

Romney played the 3rd debate as if he has a sizeable lead.

Despite the debate, you can tell Romney is winning by how the Obama campaign acts, how the liberal media media acts, and how liberals are acting around the internet.

By the publicized numbers, the race is close statistically— nationally and in the battlegrounds— and the only people in a panic are liberals.

When you see the Romney campaign, Fox News, and Free Republic calm, cool and collected and the Obama campaign and the liberal media in hysterics, you know the jig is up.


24 posted on 10/23/2012 12:59:51 AM PDT by radpolis (Liberals: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy)
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To: nathanbedford

Well said.


25 posted on 10/23/2012 1:21:37 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Arthurio

Thought you all would find this interesting:

William J. H. Boetcker was a motivational speaker and is the source of many of the snippets we hear today by politicians and media types. As you read them consider which Party is guilty of doing just what Mr. Boetcker condemns

There are several minor variants of the pamphlet in circulation, but the most commonly-accepted version appears below:

You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.

You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.

You cannot help little men by tearing down big men.

You cannot lift the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.

You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.

You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money.

You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting
class hatred.

You cannot keep out of trouble by spending more than you earn

You cannot build character and courage by destroying men’s initiative and independence.

And you cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they can and should do for themselves.

Also this:

Boetcker also spoke of the “Seven National Crimes”

I don’t think.
I don’t know.
I don’t care.
I am too busy.
I leave well enough alone.
I have no time to read and find out.
I am not interested.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._H._Boetcker


26 posted on 10/23/2012 1:51:16 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: Lacey2

Bookmark


27 posted on 10/23/2012 6:03:38 AM PDT by Roses0508
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To: nathanbedford

Ping


28 posted on 11/01/2012 1:06:06 AM PDT by Wpin ("I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny...")
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