PPP (D) Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0, 47% [+6% Democrat, 55% women]

PPP ^

[Arthurio]

PPP (D) Tracking Poll: R 49%, 0, 47% [+6% Democrat, 55% women]

This covers 10-20 to 10-22, but prior to debate

[Kahuna]

Game Over!

[carlo3b]

This is a DEM pollester.. It could be raising the bar, so they can show him having a better serge after this debate.. Foiled!.. LOL

[Catsrus]

Ooh, those numbers are significant.

[Arthurio]

The internals of this poll are even more dreadful for Obama than the top line...45% job approval, and mitt has higher personal favorability numbers

[FlingWingFlyer]

“Big Bird, Binders, Horses and Bayonets!” Sorry that’s all we’ve got! - DNC

[comebacknewt]

Romney +9 with Indies.

Obammy with 51% Disapproval.

I personally don’t think this election is over yet, but those are devastating numbers for an incumbent to have two weeks before the election.

[ObozoMustGo2012]

How much movement does everyone predict tonight’s debate will bring to the polls?

[goldstategop]

Look at the D+ oversampling and packing it in with female voters.

Even with those advantages, all O can manage is 47%.

I don’t see him getting out of the cellar in the next two weeks.

Game over, indeed.

[stanne]

“55% women”

Ouch!

[goldstategop]

The 45% is about all the percentage he’ll get on Election Day.

He needs to raise that number and he’s underwater. Privately, Democrats are going to write him off but they won’t say so publicly for if the base stays home, it’ll have a devastating effect on down ballot races particularly for the Senate.

And the media will prop him up like Bernie’s if only for that reason.

[max americana]

““55% women”

We are all assuming those are ‘women”. A woman to a lib Dumocrat is also a flaming fag.

[Jet Jaguar]

It seems PPP knows what is up and will continue with biased polls. Future business be damned.

Poll ping.

[Oldpuppymax]

Barry didn’t get any bounce for the 2nd debate and the MSM were far more tickled about that performance than they are about this one.
Although Romney let a number of easy kills go by, he did what was necessary—he made no dumb statements and gave the media no ammunition to take into the last couple of weeks.

[nathanbedford]

Game over

Agreed. This is one more in a long series of polls in which Obama cannot get above 47%. Interestingly, Karl Rove had the same number for Obama on his chalkboard in his interview on Greta after the debate. Obama has hit his ceiling.

So to put in terms of numbers what we all had been talking about in words, Obama's problem and his unavoidable failsafe in this debate was to do something which would elevate him above 47%. He could have been very passive and hope that Romney committed a gaffe but Romney is not the gaffe type. Obama knew this was the bottom of the ninth so he took is only option, he swung for the fences and tried to provoke Romney into a gaffe or at least disparage him enough so that the numbers would change.

But the problem for Obama is that disparaging Romney hardly elevates Obama's numbers. Obama's numbers are stuck at 47% because the remaining 48% or 49%, at least, have made up their minds and they are unalterably opposed to giving Obama four more years.

Consider Obama's dilemma going into the debate. His record is terrible and therefore he cannot run on his record. He made a decision long ago to run a campaign of diversion hoping to destroy Romney as a viable candidate so that Obama could stop him at one of his firewalls. Romney dismantled this strategy in his first debate. This third debate is nothing but a reprise of the second debate which in its turn was an attempt to accomplish in the debate forum what Obama had squandered hundreds of millions of dollars to accomplish with television advertising. In other words, Obama is still trying to gain by tearing down Romney.

But Obama's problem is not that Romney is held in high esteem and is vulnerable to personal attack, Obama's problem is that the electorate has made a judgment about Obama and more than half the people have decided against him. Attacking Romney does not rehabilitate Obama. Attacking Romney does not even bring Romney down to the point where the electorate says a plague on both your houses and so we better stay with the devil we know. That only works if Romney walks into the trap.

So when we say that Romney looked "presidential" in a debate we mean simply that Obama has not solved his dilemma. His problem is mathematical and these numbers will not change absent a major gaffe, deus ex machina, or an October surprise . The first did not happen, the second will not happen, and the third may yet play out-but I do not think so.

[goldstategop]

I agree - and when your opponent is more likeable than you are - negative campaigning reaches a point of diminishing returns.

Obama has not the given the country a reason why it should vote FOR him.

He missed three opportunities to give it that reason. And right now Mittens can play it safe and run out the clock.

[PhilDragoo]

BIG BIRD, BINDERS, BAYONETS

[nathanbedford]

Halfway through the debate when it became abundantly clear what Obama was doing, it occurred to me that Romney is protecting a lead. That means that Romney does not think he is one or two points behind in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, it means that Romney's internal polling is telling him that he is ahead. One does not play it safe if one is behind or if one is tied. Tied is not enough too coast with because it is too risky when one faces the power of the president's incumbency.

Romney's internal polling gave him the confidence to debate the way he did. All Romney wanted to do was make tonight a non event. Only a winner passes up an opportunity. A winner says, why take the risk?

I have no doubt that Romney knows he is sitting on a bankable lead at least in Ohio and probably as a backup in Wisconsin and Iowa and he gets over-the-top either way because he has already sewn up Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

If these assumptions about the subsidiary states Florida North Carolina Virginia New Hampshire and Colorado are true, Obama is not in a position to stop Romney with just one state because Romney has 261 electoral college votes, he must run the board. He must win Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and one of either Nevada or Iowa. Considered in this light, Obama's task is daunting indeed, especially for someone who is feet are stuck in tar and cannot get above 47%.

Consider in the light of geography, Romney's strategy is more than reasonable.

[carlo3b]

Geeez, thats gonna smart.. You have to wonder what the real internals are.. I have been watching the talking heads on MSNBC, no surprises as we would expect, but I was watching their body language.. They are always so wacko, I couldn't pick up any tells.. :)

[goldstategop]

The only two two big states O has sewn up are NY and CA.

And if his numbers take a fall, WA and OR could even come into play along with NM, MI and possibly NJ and ME.

Obama cannot afford any further erosion in his numbers. He cannot lose more ground.

Romney on the other hand is in the catbird’s seat. He can decide where to campaign, pick targets of opportunity and force O to defend terrain he must keep to prevent the election from turning into an electoral rout.

No matter how one looks at it, there are no upsides for Obama this year.