Posted on 10/23/2012 7:51:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Along with the market being down... Obama down to 57!!
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Yeah, that’s right... the original statement was ambiguous enough that I thought you meant “buy Obama” when you really meant “buy Romney” (alternatively, “short/sell Obama” works as well).
I agree with this message posted at BI by a poster named JoeJitsu.
Intrade is really given too much importance in terms of its predictive powers by pundits out there (Even Dick Morris fell into its spell in the past).
Intrade has a bad habit of fooling around early in the game and then totally changing its electronic mind later.
I remember when the bet was totally insane FOR Obamacare being overturned and then at the last minute crashing against it.
In 2004, In election Night, as parts of Florida came out with exit polls showing John Kerry winning, Kerry’s stock went up HUGE, only to see his stock crashing down a few hours later as the returns of Ohio came in.
George Soros in fact is known to put huge bets on Intrade to “spike” it in favor of his candidates only to dump it at the most opportune time.
Folks, this site is not a PREDICTOR of what happens, IT ONLY FOLLOWS WHAT IT SEES ( as Market bettors often do ).
check spelling in your tagline?
No but I should, I will admit, sometimes when I get on FR I let the grammar slide, it’s a bad habit.
Intrade is so absurd. They should have had Obama down into the 40s already.
Newport News is going to swamp Obama.
Intrade is moving as I type this.
The President is now below 53%, and still dropping.
It’s either whoever was floating him at 60 decided to put on a stop-loss, or someone in the Romney camp decided to make a few extra dollars today.
It could be timed with the end of the debates, but I also note that CO, VA, FL, and NC favor Romney on Intrade. More states will shift soon as arbitrage sets in.
Someone just stepped back into the market for the President.
I love watching arbitrage in real time.
Someone is making a fair amount of money today, but the current value of the Obama side of this bet is less than $6 mil. Soros can afford that.
Of course, if you look at Ohio...
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