SurveyUSA Ohio Poll 47%O 44%R (Internals are devastating for Obama)

SurveyUSA ^ | 10/23/2012 | SurveyUSA

[apillar]

In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls -- ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it's Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today.

[apillar]

At first glance this poll seems to be good new for Obama...until you look at the internals. Romney is winning Ohio independents by 8 points 47%R to 39%O. But more amazing is that Obama is only getting 70% of the black vote with 22% going for Romney. Then there is the union vote, Obama is only ahead by 7% and under 50% at 49%O 42%R (so much for the auto bailout locking down the autoworker vote). These numbers are devastating for Obama. There is no way he can win Ohio or nationally with only a 7% advantage among union voters and 70% of the black vote. As for the fact Obama is still being ahead by 3% with such horrible internals. Well it's a cooked poll that massively undersampled independents and oversampled democrats (39D/32R/25I).

[edwinland]

“Well it’s a cooked poll that massively undersampled independents and oversampled democrats (39D/32R/25I).”

Does anyone know the 2008 and 2004 turnout numbers by party in Ohio?

[snarkytart]

I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better.

:sighs:

[TigerClaws]

Black vote is shocking. Obama is history if that happens.

[HamiltonJay]

There NEVER was any way Obama was going to win this thing.

THe notion the Rust Belt was going to be a firewall for Obama was idiotic at best.

Obama spent 4 years pissing in the face of blue dogs, which make their homes in the south and the rust belt. He didn’t give a crap about working class whites and actively destroyed the coal industry... etc etc. So much so that polling shows a full 20% of working class white democratic voters are openly stating they will be voting for Romney... Working class whites are 60% of the democratic base, the idea you can treat them like crap for 4 years and expect to be re-elected is nonsense.

Then you attack the catholic church???? Not smart, there are lot of Catholics in the rust belt as well.

The notion Ohio is neck and neck I am not and have never bought. I think Romney takes Ohio by at least 4 points. He’ll also take IA, IN and WI as well.. MI and PA are also outside possible wins for Romney as well. Only states in the rust belt I think Obama can remotely call “safe” are MN and IL.

I still think Obama won’t pull over 42-43% max on election day.

[Holly_P]

Obama is only getting 70% of the black vote with 22% going for Romney.

That, simply is not believable.

[Perdogg]

This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).

[jonno]

Agreed.

Thus, the whole poll is suspect...

[edwinland]

Thanks.

[The G Man]

An incumbent at 47% w/ 2 weeks to go = doom.

[goldstategop]

O is hemorrhaging among key demographics - the cooked polls I don’t buy.

With internals like that, he won’t win any state in the Midwest (apart from MN and IL) and he won’t win PA.

I think that an 8 to 10 point national win for Romney is pretty realistic.

All the “tied” polls are optical illusions now. In reality, in each of those states, Romney is well ahead.

O isn’t going to win this year, not with the kind of numbers he’s getting.

[snarkytart]

From your lips...!!

[pburgh01]

I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better. :sighs:

[kevkrom]

I see the poll is very off when you look at the internals but still, I just wanna see ONE POLL with Romney ahead in OH to feel a little better.

If Romney is shown to be ahead in Ohio, the fat lady has sung, viewership/readership goes down, as do the ad dollars that come with it. There is no way the media complex is going to abandon their "horse race" story, no matter what the real situation is.

[snarkytart]

Whatca’ got for me? I don’t see anything.

[GreenAccord]

Just for consideration and discussion, what part does the Black Church membership disgust at Obama’s outward support for gay marriage have?

[Baynative]

Today's RCP election map is an illustration of how much affirmative action has influenced the country. In a country where it is widely recognized that the President is failing in all disciplines and the majority of the nation feels Romney can do a better job, half our citizens are willing to vote for reelection because of race.

[comebacknewt]

Obviously would prefer to see Romney ahead, but Obama stuck at 47% is definitely encouraging.

We need another Romney surge there at the end to pull this one off. I pray that one is coming.

[babble-on]

There’s simply no way that data on the AA vote is correct. Remeber its a small sample size on any of these sub-demographics, so the margin of error rises hugely.

[Anti-Hillary]

Ding Ding Ding!!! We have a winner!!!! Johnny tell him what he has won....