Skip to comments.Could Sandy Target Northeast U.S.?
Posted on 10/24/2012 8:00:22 AM PDT by dirtboy
Wow... what an extraordinarily unusual scenario. What seemed like a fluke of an idea - a hurricane-like system hitting the northeastern U.S. - is gaining credibility. Originally the European model was on its own with the spectacular but somewhat bizarre idea that Sandy would be injected with jet stream energy and curve back toward New England as a stunningly strong storm. Now one model after the other, including the ensembles, are favoring a swing back toward the East Coast after the storm goes by Cape Hatteras.
This the the afternoon run of the American GFS model ensembles - multiple lower-resolution runs with slightly different initial information, which allows for the fact that we can't measure the atmosphere precisely among other things.
The majority of the possible tracks now head into the Northeast, New England, or Atlantic Canada.
Could it really be a strong hurricane, as the European model predicts? We know that, occasionally, hurricanes do occur at these high latitudes at the end of October. Famously, the "Perfect Storm", otherwise known as the Halloween Hurricane battered New England in 1991. Also, Category 2 Hurricane Ginny hit Nova Scotia in late October 1963. But, neither were of a scale and impact like the Euro is showing.
With the influence of the jet stream, you would think any storm that comes ashore would be subtropical in nature - part tropical and part like a nor'easter - but the NHC doesn't allow for subtropical hurricanes in their naming scheme. It's considered to be such a rare and nearly impossible event.
The spectacularly unusual confluence of events is the shape and orientation of the dip in the jet stream that is forecast to develop over eastern North America over the weekend - oriented in such a way to pull Sandy inland instead of pushing it out to sea, and the presence of a strong tropical or subtropical system where it can get pulled in. That's so bizarrely unusual that I can't think of another event like it.
This kind of thing occasionally happens with nor'easters, notably the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 which curved in off the Atlantic and dumped 20 to 30 inches of snow over a wide area in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, but the odds of it happening with a system that originated in the tropics - with all of the moisture that that implies - are extremely low.
We certainly don't know that it's going to happen, and our concern at the moment is for our friends in the Caribbean and the Bahamas who will take a direct hit from a strengthening hurricane. The Florida and Carolina coasts also need to be ready to take protective action - especially boaters and people right at the coast - depending on the track Thursday to Saturday. But it's not often that credible forecast models consistently forecast a historic event, and with more models leaning that way, we need to be aware and pay attention along the entire U.S. East Coast
My brother and sister-in-law live in Lewes Delaware.....
Most of that area is at sea level or just above to the Chesapeake Bay....
A lot of retired folks in poorly built (not huricane proof) homes and mobile homes....
This would be bad.....
I wonder how many Freepers read this article through the lens of how it might affect the election. I know I did!
Go to wxrisk.com and click on the Facebook link to see DT’s latest forecasts for Sandy. He is a ‘rogue’ in that he forecasts for a living (subscription service for businesses) and he is GOOD. He has been the lone voice around here predicting storms way before the local media guys do. Also, on the website, scroll down to the ‘audio’ link - listen to it and follow his explanation of the maps ..... scary.
YEP....first question...”Is it scheduled to hit Nov 6th?”
Couple years back, 2007 or 2008, there was a winter storm that dropped snow on us like a monster, weirdest part was that it developed an eye like a hurrivcane but not the wind speeds of one.
The upshot is that the models are suggesting a possible 930-950 mb storm, which would normally be associated with a Cat 3-4 hurricane.
DT is honestly borderline mentally ill; he has some knowledge but is a hypemonger and has trouble with sublety.
I was half expecting this to be about Sandra Fluke...
I am planning to be on retreat this weekend and have a woman who will be helping me take care of my cats. Not good.
Is the path in white considered the most likely?
No....October 29th to October 31st. It will be long gone before election day.
No. If it heads to the northeast, it’ll be Mon/Tues.
It could screw up trick-or-treating, but it’ll be long gone by Nov. 6.
You know, it says on the map that the points are 12 hrs apart, so it looks to me, without an in-depth study, that some of the paths might put the storm over the northeast on election day.
Lee Goldberg @LeeGoldbergABC7
European model digging in its heels. Despite current NHC path, plenty of evidence for east coast impact. #Sandy
Oh sure. I have next week off and it will be ruined by this?
Seriously, batten down the hatches everyone. We may have a blow!
Looks like it could go ANYWHERE.
And when you consider that these meterologist jerks can’t tell you what the weathere will be like TOMORROW, I don’t put any reliance on their long-term predictions.
BUT, I will make sure my generator is ready and I have enough gas on hand and the generator batteries are charged - just in case.
You DO have to wade through the bluster, rabid anti-media forecaster attitude ... but from my personal experience, he’s the one I watch when there is ‘big’ weather out there. YMMV
My first thought was that Rove has re-acquired the keys to the Weather Machine(TM).
No; it's a bit complicated to explain.
All of those tracks are from one model; the white is the "Operational" GFS; the other tracks are "ensemble" members - they are the same model but with the initial conditions "perturbed" a little bit. It's a bit of the "butterfly effect." We never actually know the true current weather conditions everywhere, so the perturbations show what happens if things start out slightly differently. The ensemble tracks show that actually it's probably more likely it curves back to hit the US, because most of them do, and that the "operational" track is probably less likely.
Our side gets out to vote under most any circumstance, where their side, not so much. I mean, they stay home just because the toilet overflows ;)
That slut Sandy is headed right for me!
It's sort of hard to fathom how people can generate such hatred of people they don't even know. All I can attribute it to is just blind hate of anyone smarter than you.
but the improvement in weather forecast accuracy that has taken place in the last 40 years is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. Hardly the work of "jerks."
The accuracy with hurricane track forecasting is pretty astounding when you consider the complexity of the atmosphere. and has shown steady, slow improvement for decades. Unfortunately intensity forecasting is still an unsolvable problem.
I’m trying to take out DC, but I’ll take special requests.
If it managed to flood all the streets in Philly on Nov. 6 I could make my peace with it...
But if there are widespread power outages, it could take a week or more to restore power.
Generally, the urban areas have their power restored first.
Worst case scenario: eastern PA gets hit hard. Union utility workers selectively restore power to heavy democrat areas first and take their time restoring power to purple/red areas, giving Obama the edge he needs to take PA.
ANYTIME you want to trade jobs, let me know. I would LOVE to work at a career where regaradless of my product, I was assured of a well-paying job.
Not to mention all those hot weather girls I would get to work with!!!
That path is representative of the GFS computer model, which the hurricane center has relied upon most as the basic for their track forecasts. However...that's also the model that is being questioned the most outside of the NHC due to specific "quirks" it has in resolving certain technical interactions between competing storms - which I'm not qualified to even attempt an explanation about.
Ennyhow... that's why the European weather model is being cited in the original post. Other models (as you see from that first map) are also jumping on board with the idea that this hurricane will be "captured" by the next approaching storm front. That scenario is now being seen as more likely than not. Even the NHC is now admitting that with this post on their most recent 'Discussion' page:
"OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD."
...and they cited the Euro model as proof. So all interests in the US NE should keep a close eye on this.
However, he is more often correct than not when it comes to weather issues for DelMarVa - and is the first to admit when he is wrong.
I read it and compare it to figuring out how the election will turn out. It’s all up in the air!!
Post 28 shows the National Hurricane Center does not predict a US landfall of Sandy at this time.
Good morning! I was just about to ping you :-)
Yes..... I'm in VA.
NYS has yet to recover from Irene & Lee. Many rural roads and bridges are still out up here.
A full-blown hurricane would be devastating to our area.
me, too. I’m on the Eastern Shore - equi - distant from the Atlantic and the Chesapeake.
“I wonder how many Freepers read this article through the lens of how it might affect the election. I know I did!”
YEP, I admit I thought of that too. I live in New England. The election is so very crucial and on my mind - there aren’t enough Tums antacids to survive the next 13 days.
Sandy change the one path it goes right over our shore place and then my house.
1. that information is based on a flawed model. As I say, the NHC is also coming around to the ideas of moving the track further west. They say so here.
2. The "pull" into the NE happens AFTER the 5-day tracks you cite anyway. So no - the Eastern seaboard is not threatened until roughly the Chesapeake Bay/North-from-there areas.
Thanks. It will be interesting to watch the local weathermen panic if it heads toward the northeast.