Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Could Sandy Target Northeast U.S.?
Weather Underground ^ | 10/24/2012 | Bryan Norcoss

Posted on 10/24/2012 8:00:22 AM PDT by dirtboy

Wow... what an extraordinarily unusual scenario. What seemed like a fluke of an idea - a hurricane-like system hitting the northeastern U.S. - is gaining credibility. Originally the European model was on its own with the spectacular but somewhat bizarre idea that Sandy would be injected with jet stream energy and curve back toward New England as a stunningly strong storm. Now one model after the other, including the ensembles, are favoring a swing back toward the East Coast after the storm goes by Cape Hatteras.

This the the afternoon run of the American GFS model ensembles - multiple lower-resolution runs with slightly different initial information, which allows for the fact that we can't measure the atmosphere precisely among other things.

The majority of the possible tracks now head into the Northeast, New England, or Atlantic Canada.

Could it really be a strong hurricane, as the European model predicts? We know that, occasionally, hurricanes do occur at these high latitudes at the end of October. Famously, the "Perfect Storm", otherwise known as the Halloween Hurricane battered New England in 1991. Also, Category 2 Hurricane Ginny hit Nova Scotia in late October 1963. But, neither were of a scale and impact like the Euro is showing.

With the influence of the jet stream, you would think any storm that comes ashore would be subtropical in nature - part tropical and part like a nor'easter - but the NHC doesn't allow for subtropical hurricanes in their naming scheme. It's considered to be such a rare and nearly impossible event.

The spectacularly unusual confluence of events is the shape and orientation of the dip in the jet stream that is forecast to develop over eastern North America over the weekend - oriented in such a way to pull Sandy inland instead of pushing it out to sea, and the presence of a strong tropical or subtropical system where it can get pulled in. That's so bizarrely unusual that I can't think of another event like it.

This kind of thing occasionally happens with nor'easters, notably the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 which curved in off the Atlantic and dumped 20 to 30 inches of snow over a wide area in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, but the odds of it happening with a system that originated in the tropics - with all of the moisture that that implies - are extremely low.

We certainly don't know that it's going to happen, and our concern at the moment is for our friends in the Caribbean and the Bahamas who will take a direct hit from a strengthening hurricane. The Florida and Carolina coasts also need to be ready to take protective action - especially boaters and people right at the coast - depending on the track Thursday to Saturday. But it's not often that credible forecast models consistently forecast a historic event, and with more models leaning that way, we need to be aware and pay attention along the entire U.S. East Coast


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricanesandy; israel; sandy
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-84 next last

1 posted on 10/24/2012 8:00:25 AM PDT by dirtboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

2 posted on 10/24/2012 8:01:35 AM PDT by dirtboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
There is a precedent:


3 posted on 10/24/2012 8:03:14 AM PDT by dirtboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

My brother and sister-in-law live in Lewes Delaware.....

Most of that area is at sea level or just above to the Chesapeake Bay....

A lot of retired folks in poorly built (not huricane proof) homes and mobile homes....

This would be bad.....


4 posted on 10/24/2012 8:05:19 AM PDT by nevergore ("It could be that the purpose of my life is simply to serve as a warning to others.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

I wonder how many Freepers read this article through the lens of how it might affect the election. I know I did!


5 posted on 10/24/2012 8:05:48 AM PDT by GnL
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

Go to wxrisk.com and click on the Facebook link to see DT’s latest forecasts for Sandy. He is a ‘rogue’ in that he forecasts for a living (subscription service for businesses) and he is GOOD. He has been the lone voice around here predicting storms way before the local media guys do. Also, on the website, scroll down to the ‘audio’ link - listen to it and follow his explanation of the maps ..... scary.


6 posted on 10/24/2012 8:06:04 AM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GnL

YEP....first question...”Is it scheduled to hit Nov 6th?”


7 posted on 10/24/2012 8:08:16 AM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

Couple years back, 2007 or 2008, there was a winter storm that dropped snow on us like a monster, weirdest part was that it developed an eye like a hurrivcane but not the wind speeds of one.


8 posted on 10/24/2012 8:09:36 AM PDT by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free.....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy
This could be very nasty next week if it gets 'captured' and pulled into the NE. Joe Bastardi has been hyping this possibility (yeah, it's what he does) for about a week now [see his tweet history at this link].

The upshot is that the models are suggesting a possible 930-950 mb storm, which would normally be associated with a Cat 3-4 hurricane.

9 posted on 10/24/2012 8:09:47 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MissMagnolia
Go to wxrisk.com and click on the Facebook link to see DT’s latest forecasts for Sandy. He is a ‘rogue’ in that he forecasts for a living (subscription service for businesses) and he is GOOD. He has been the lone voice around here predicting storms way before the local media guys do. Also, on the website, scroll down to the ‘audio’ link - listen to it and follow his explanation of the maps ..... scary.

DT is honestly borderline mentally ill; he has some knowledge but is a hypemonger and has trouble with sublety.

10 posted on 10/24/2012 8:10:16 AM PDT by Strategerist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

I was half expecting this to be about Sandra Fluke...


11 posted on 10/24/2012 8:10:23 AM PDT by ZirconEncrustedTweezers (Vote Romney to stop Obama. Vote conservative Congresspeople to stop Romney.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

I am planning to be on retreat this weekend and have a woman who will be helping me take care of my cats. Not good.


12 posted on 10/24/2012 8:10:23 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

Is the path in white considered the most likely?


13 posted on 10/24/2012 8:10:45 AM PDT by Brooklyn Attitude (We won't stand for biased umps fixing a ball game but we allow a biased media to fix elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: goodnesswins

No....October 29th to October 31st. It will be long gone before election day.


14 posted on 10/24/2012 8:13:11 AM PDT by Strategerist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: goodnesswins

No. If it heads to the northeast, it’ll be Mon/Tues.

It could screw up trick-or-treating, but it’ll be long gone by Nov. 6.


15 posted on 10/24/2012 8:14:13 AM PDT by kidd
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: goodnesswins

You know, it says on the map that the points are 12 hrs apart, so it looks to me, without an in-depth study, that some of the paths might put the storm over the northeast on election day.


16 posted on 10/24/2012 8:14:13 AM PDT by GnL
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: alancarp
Lots of forecasters getting onto this bandwagon:

Lee Goldberg ‏@LeeGoldbergABC7
European model digging in its heels. Despite current NHC path, plenty of evidence for east coast impact. #Sandy

17 posted on 10/24/2012 8:15:46 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

Oh sure. I have next week off and it will be ruined by this?

Seriously, batten down the hatches everyone. We may have a blow!


18 posted on 10/24/2012 8:15:46 AM PDT by Gamecock
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

Looks like it could go ANYWHERE.

And when you consider that these meterologist jerks can’t tell you what the weathere will be like TOMORROW, I don’t put any reliance on their long-term predictions.

BUT, I will make sure my generator is ready and I have enough gas on hand and the generator batteries are charged - just in case.


19 posted on 10/24/2012 8:16:10 AM PDT by ZULU (See video: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-first-siege-of-vienna.html)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Strategerist

You DO have to wade through the bluster, rabid anti-media forecaster attitude ... but from my personal experience, he’s the one I watch when there is ‘big’ weather out there. YMMV


20 posted on 10/24/2012 8:17:11 AM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: GnL

My first thought was that Rove has re-acquired the keys to the Weather Machine(TM).


21 posted on 10/24/2012 8:17:26 AM PDT by chrisser (Starve the Monkeys!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Brooklyn Attitude
Is the path in white considered the most likely?

No; it's a bit complicated to explain.

All of those tracks are from one model; the white is the "Operational" GFS; the other tracks are "ensemble" members - they are the same model but with the initial conditions "perturbed" a little bit. It's a bit of the "butterfly effect." We never actually know the true current weather conditions everywhere, so the perturbations show what happens if things start out slightly differently. The ensemble tracks show that actually it's probably more likely it curves back to hit the US, because most of them do, and that the "operational" track is probably less likely.

22 posted on 10/24/2012 8:17:34 AM PDT by Strategerist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: goodnesswins; GnL
Just a messy weather day would be *optimal*.

Our side gets out to vote under most any circumstance, where their side, not so much. I mean, they stay home just because the toilet overflows ;)

23 posted on 10/24/2012 8:18:09 AM PDT by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

That slut Sandy is headed right for me!


24 posted on 10/24/2012 8:19:27 AM PDT by angcat (ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 & NY YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy
If it hits any of the East Coast's swing states you can be sure that Osama Obama will have every rescue capability...including the Girl Scouts...in those states,faithfully filmed by every lamestream media camera in the country.
25 posted on 10/24/2012 8:20:51 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ZULU
And when you consider that these meterologist jerks can’t tell you what the weathere will be like TOMORROW, I don’t put any reliance on their long-term predictions.

It's sort of hard to fathom how people can generate such hatred of people they don't even know. All I can attribute it to is just blind hate of anyone smarter than you.
but the improvement in weather forecast accuracy that has taken place in the last 40 years is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. Hardly the work of "jerks."

The accuracy with hurricane track forecasting is pretty astounding when you consider the complexity of the atmosphere. and has shown steady, slow improvement for decades. Unfortunately intensity forecasting is still an unsolvable problem.

26 posted on 10/24/2012 8:21:13 AM PDT by Strategerist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

I’m trying to take out DC, but I’ll take special requests.


27 posted on 10/24/2012 8:21:25 AM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Eat Mor Chikin!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nevergore
Not expected to be an issue.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents

28 posted on 10/24/2012 8:22:12 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

If it managed to flood all the streets in Philly on Nov. 6 I could make my peace with it...


29 posted on 10/24/2012 8:22:24 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All


30 posted on 10/24/2012 8:22:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Barack Obama--you are the weakest link. Goodbye!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: goodnesswins

But if there are widespread power outages, it could take a week or more to restore power.

Generally, the urban areas have their power restored first.

Worst case scenario: eastern PA gets hit hard. Union utility workers selectively restore power to heavy democrat areas first and take their time restoring power to purple/red areas, giving Obama the edge he needs to take PA.


31 posted on 10/24/2012 8:22:52 AM PDT by kidd
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Strategerist

ANYTIME you want to trade jobs, let me know. I would LOVE to work at a career where regaradless of my product, I was assured of a well-paying job.

Not to mention all those hot weather girls I would get to work with!!!


32 posted on 10/24/2012 8:25:16 AM PDT by ZULU (See video: http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-first-siege-of-vienna.html)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Brooklyn Attitude
"Is the path in white considered the most likely?"

That path is representative of the GFS computer model, which the hurricane center has relied upon most as the basic for their track forecasts. However...that's also the model that is being questioned the most outside of the NHC due to specific "quirks" it has in resolving certain technical interactions between competing storms - which I'm not qualified to even attempt an explanation about.

Ennyhow... that's why the European weather model is being cited in the original post. Other models (as you see from that first map) are also jumping on board with the idea that this hurricane will be "captured" by the next approaching storm front. That scenario is now being seen as more likely than not. Even the NHC is now admitting that with this post on their most recent 'Discussion' page:

"OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD."

...and they cited the Euro model as proof. So all interests in the US NE should keep a close eye on this.

33 posted on 10/24/2012 8:25:38 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Strategerist; MissMagnolia
DT is honestly borderline mentally ill; he has some knowledge but is a hypemonger and has trouble with sublety.

However, he is more often correct than not when it comes to weather issues for DelMarVa - and is the first to admit when he is wrong.

34 posted on 10/24/2012 8:25:54 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: GnL

I read it and compare it to figuring out how the election will turn out. It’s all up in the air!!


35 posted on 10/24/2012 8:27:26 AM PDT by refermech
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: angcat
Post #3 is not a track of Sandy, but a storm from the Late 1800’s.

Post 28 shows the National Hurricane Center does not predict a US landfall of Sandy at this time.

36 posted on 10/24/2012 8:28:01 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Good morning! I was just about to ping you :-)


37 posted on 10/24/2012 8:29:21 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

38 posted on 10/24/2012 8:29:52 AM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney; nevergore
Ummmm.... no, I wouldn't say that at all. See posts 2, 22, 30, and 33.
39 posted on 10/24/2012 8:30:03 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Gabz
However, he is more often correct than not when it comes to weather issues for DelMarVa - and is the first to admit when he is wrong.

Yes..... I'm in VA.

40 posted on 10/24/2012 8:30:18 AM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

NYS has yet to recover from Irene & Lee. Many rural roads and bridges are still out up here.

A full-blown hurricane would be devastating to our area.


41 posted on 10/24/2012 8:33:28 AM PDT by panaxanax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MissMagnolia

me, too. I’m on the Eastern Shore - equi - distant from the Atlantic and the Chesapeake.


42 posted on 10/24/2012 8:33:51 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: GnL

“I wonder how many Freepers read this article through the lens of how it might affect the election. I know I did!”

YEP, I admit I thought of that too. I live in New England. The election is so very crucial and on my mind - there aren’t enough Tums antacids to survive the next 13 days.


43 posted on 10/24/2012 8:34:50 AM PDT by Mrs. B.S. Roberts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: thackney
LOL Leave it to me to worry about something that happened in the 1800’s. Thanks for letting me know because I sent hubby and email to go buy that generator we have been talking about.
44 posted on 10/24/2012 8:35:04 AM PDT by angcat (ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 & NY YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: SandyInSeattle

Sandy change the one path it goes right over our shore place and then my house.


45 posted on 10/24/2012 8:35:52 AM PDT by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: kidd
I've leave this graphic to speak for itself about Eastern PA:


46 posted on 10/24/2012 8:35:54 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: alancarp
I see the major prediction all showing no US landfall predicted. There remains a possibility of a landfall, but it is quite small.


47 posted on 10/24/2012 8:37:00 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

48 posted on 10/24/2012 8:37:56 AM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: thackney
Read the other posts:

1. that information is based on a flawed model. As I say, the NHC is also coming around to the ideas of moving the track further west. They say so here.
2. The "pull" into the NE happens AFTER the 5-day tracks you cite anyway. So no - the Eastern seaboard is not threatened until roughly the Chesapeake Bay/North-from-there areas.

49 posted on 10/24/2012 8:42:22 AM PDT by alancarp (Liberals are all for shared pain... until they're included in the pain group.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: alancarp; Strategerist

Thanks. It will be interesting to watch the local weathermen panic if it heads toward the northeast.


50 posted on 10/24/2012 8:42:29 AM PDT by Brooklyn Attitude (We won't stand for biased umps fixing a ball game but we allow a biased media to fix elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-84 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson