I'm so glad Romney's leading, i see light in the future!
Posted on 10/24/2012 8:35:44 AM PDT by Perdogg
The presidential race in New Hampshire remains neck-and-neck, with Mitt Romney stretching to a two-point lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, finds Romney earning 50% support, while President Obama has 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
ping
Romney will have his only win of the night in New England... he will carry NH.
Won’t matter if the Hugo Chavez brand voting machines cast an Obama vote for you anyways/
and ME-CD2
I’ll take it. New Hampshire plus Colorado plus Wisconsin means we don’t have to win Ohio, IIRC.
Yep!
Romney now has Virginia and New Hampshire to go with North Carolina and Florida.
If he can gain Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, then he has won the election. Colorado appears to be his. I believe he was down one in Iowa and down 2 or 3 in Nevada.
Won without Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
Michigan and Massachusetts will be feeling odd that they denied their own favorite son president at just the moment it would be in their best interest to support him.
The talk here in New England is that he could get one EV from Maine (which splits its EVs).
ARG, PPP, and Rasmussen have all come to the same result - a 1-2 point Romney lead.
And then there's the goofy UNH survey with Obama +9.
NH could be a key part in one of the more unlikely electoral vote scenarios (Romney wins without Ohio, Romney wins without Virginia, and so forth).
I read yesterday that the Republican Governor of Nevada is saying (privately) that Baraq will probably take the state.
Or NH+CO+IA.
Might be able to work around OH after all.
About 90% of the ads I see on Boston TV that are directed at NH are Rats' ads...Baraq,the Commies running for Governor and the House....
I wouldn’t argue with the republican governor of the state. At the same time, Rasmussen had Romney down only 2 yesterday.
Sorry, that was ARG poll, not rasmussen.
That only goes to 267. Adding one EV from Maine is 268 - one shy of a tie.
Iowa radio this morning is reporting Romney with a slight lead in the latest Ras poll. Monday, it was reported by Ras that Iowa was tied 48-48 with registered voters, but Romney ahead 49-47 with the likely voters. It was a 500 person sample.
This week, I met two more Obama voters who have switched to Romney. I believe Iowa will go to Romney.
If Romney wins Nevada, he will have won Ohio and Wisconsin anyway.
In relation to national polling, I have...
North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, ***National***, New Hampshire, Ohio ,Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan
From the crosstabs of this survey
Republican 32%
Democrat 30%
Other 38%
“Romney will have his only win of the night in New England... he will carry NH...”
Looks good for Romney in New Hampshire.
But he also has a shot at picking up a single vote from that one Congressional district in Maine that leans to Republicans.
He is going to need every EV he can get.
Regardless of the puffery and over-optimism shown by many here on FR, I believe this is going to be a -very- close election, at least in the Electoral College.
Based on the stats I see at Rasmussen’s electoral college scoreboard right now, looks to me like the election could go Romney - 277, Obama - 252 (assuming Mr. Romney gets the one Congressional district in Maine that is leaning towards him, otherwise, it will be 276-253).
(you can view Ras’ electoral scoreboard at
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard)
This assumes Romney wins New Hampshire, Ohio, and Iowa (the latter two states show a “tied race” right now, 48-48 in both).
I’m hoping Mr. Romney can pull this off...
In your list I’d change the side of Colorado and Ohio.
Colorado was voting Republican more than the nation years ago, but with the demographic change they had in the last decade or so the trend is going the other way. In 2008 it gives an almost 9 point lead to Obama while nationally he had a 7.2 points lead.
Ohio on the other hand is much closer to the national average but typically gives slightly a better than the nation result to the GOP guy,and a little worst than the nation result to the dem, with the exception of 2004 when Kerry had practically the same in Ohio that he had nationally.
The certainty that goes “if state X goes to Romney, state Y will also go to him” is faulty. Though their party IDs and history may have some bearing on these things, the way campaigning has gone in in each state, as well as the economic and social conditions specific to it, also have a bearing. States which have not been accosted over the last two months by carpet-bombing political ads may react very differently in the next two weeks.
2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, NE1, CO, IA, NH, NV = 273EV
2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, NE1, CO, IA, WI = 273EV
2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, NE1, CO, IA, NH, WI = 277EV
not a bad sample.
Really? Where's the realistic scenario where ME2 does jack squat? Where also is the polling that shows ME2 going Romney before WI or PA?
Oh my God, don't talk perfect sense to these people...Romney wins National PV, he wins Ohio. Period.
| 2004 National | 50.7 | 48.3 |
| 2004 Ohio | 50.8 | 48.7 |
I'm so glad Romney's leading, i see light in the future!
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