If Romney wins Nevada, he will have won Ohio and Wisconsin anyway.
In relation to national polling, I have...
North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, ***National***, New Hampshire, Ohio ,Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan
In your list I’d change the side of Colorado and Ohio.
Colorado was voting Republican more than the nation years ago, but with the demographic change they had in the last decade or so the trend is going the other way. In 2008 it gives an almost 9 point lead to Obama while nationally he had a 7.2 points lead.
Ohio on the other hand is much closer to the national average but typically gives slightly a better than the nation result to the GOP guy,and a little worst than the nation result to the dem, with the exception of 2004 when Kerry had practically the same in Ohio that he had nationally.
The certainty that goes “if state X goes to Romney, state Y will also go to him” is faulty. Though their party IDs and history may have some bearing on these things, the way campaigning has gone in in each state, as well as the economic and social conditions specific to it, also have a bearing. States which have not been accosted over the last two months by carpet-bombing political ads may react very differently in the next two weeks.