In your list I’d change the side of Colorado and Ohio.
Colorado was voting Republican more than the nation years ago, but with the demographic change they had in the last decade or so the trend is going the other way. In 2008 it gives an almost 9 point lead to Obama while nationally he had a 7.2 points lead.
Ohio on the other hand is much closer to the national average but typically gives slightly a better than the nation result to the GOP guy,and a little worst than the nation result to the dem, with the exception of 2004 when Kerry had practically the same in Ohio that he had nationally.
Oh my God, don't talk perfect sense to these people...Romney wins National PV, he wins Ohio. Period.