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Virginia Early Voting Tallies Show Trouble for Obama (Cook Political Report data)
Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report | 10/24/12 | TonyInOhio

Posted on 10/24/2012 1:05:44 PM PDT by TonyInOhio

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Obama's campaign drones are claiming huge advantages from their GOTV and early voting efforts, yet the actual data confirms what we've suspected - Democrat voters are less excited to vote than GOP voters, and that spells doom for The Empty Chair.
1 posted on 10/24/2012 1:05:51 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
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To: TonyInOhio

"Gl- Gl- Gloria? Y- Y- You s-s-said you had a slam-dunk!"


2 posted on 10/24/2012 1:09:14 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: TonyInOhio
More:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Fairfax County (61% Obama) is DOWN 4.0% vs. this point in '08, even though statewide, early voting UP 9.4%

3 posted on 10/24/2012 1:09:42 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Defend Freedom / Defeat Obama)
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To: TonyInOhio

Buh bye Obama.


4 posted on 10/24/2012 1:11:04 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: LS; Perdogg; Jet Jaguar; Ravi

The Poll Ping list will find this interesting. In essence, the Obama campaign is relying on early voting to swamp Romney’s margins, and the data coming out of Virginia shows it ain’t happening.


5 posted on 10/24/2012 1:13:11 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Defend Freedom / Defeat Obama)
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To: TonyInOhio

Told you.

The metro DC folks are going Green and Libertarian this year.

I was told by some that they cannot vote for Romney but won’t vote for Obama hence the third party votes.


6 posted on 10/24/2012 1:14:25 PM PDT by OpusatFR
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To: TonyInOhio

Ruh Roh.. I guess folk do care about who sat in the chair last.. and why they’re not there now.

sidenote.. Do not quote me! :-] I heard something about Florida early voting somewhere .. either radio or tv can’t recall.. 5 point advantage Mitt..


7 posted on 10/24/2012 1:14:51 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi)
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To: TonyInOhio

VA and FL are done deals. I’m worried about OH.


8 posted on 10/24/2012 1:18:47 PM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: Mad Dawg; EDINVA; JPG; Hawthorn; Paisan; VA_Gentleman; seekthetruth; COBOL2Java; Perdogg; kabar; ...

VA Ping!

If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Virginians, please ping me.

Thanks!


9 posted on 10/24/2012 1:19:18 PM PDT by randita
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To: NormsRevenge

African American turnout this time might hold some surprises.


10 posted on 10/24/2012 1:20:11 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: TonyInOhio

Percentages of unequal totals can be deceiving. On raw numbers, ballots from GOP counties are up 15,000 while ballots from Dem counties are up 6,500. Of course those extra votes from Dem counties could all be Romney votes. Just saying . . .


11 posted on 10/24/2012 1:20:29 PM PDT by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: Clintonfatigued; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; no dems; Kaslin; perfect_rovian_storm; ...

VA early voting info.


12 posted on 10/24/2012 1:21:12 PM PDT by randita
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To: TonyInOhio

Obama’s pretty much pulled out of western VA. He’s not on AM radio at all, while Romney and pro-Romney PAC’s are running at least 10 ads per hour on AM radio - a lot of it energy/coal related.

I admit I don’t watch much prime time TV, but when I do, I’m not seeing much Obama going on there either.

I’m sure Obama’s still on the air in northern VA.


13 posted on 10/24/2012 1:24:52 PM PDT by randita
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To: Hoodat

Wow you’re right.


14 posted on 10/24/2012 1:25:22 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: TonyInOhio

I have a friend (good guy, just hopelessly naive) working for OFA in Virginia. Recently he hasn’t really been wanting to talk about work, or the Presidential election.


15 posted on 10/24/2012 1:31:39 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: Col Frank Slade

They’ll probably stay home in droves.

They won’t dare vote AGAINST 0bama, but they won’t bother to show up to vote FOR 0bama.


16 posted on 10/24/2012 1:32:57 PM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: randita

“Obama’s pretty much pulled out of western VA. “

Being a resident of Virginia (and a voter) it will be nice not to be ashamed of which direction my state votes for the president this election. We are red basically accept for the Blacksburg/Va Tech liberal area and the Richmond area. They have as many non-Virginia born residents as the rest of the state does REAL Virginians.


17 posted on 10/24/2012 1:33:50 PM PDT by sevinufnine (Sevin - "If we do not fight when we know we can win, we'll have to fight when we know we will lose")
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To: MrB

The % of turnout vs 08 could be quite interesting.


18 posted on 10/24/2012 1:38:53 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: TonyInOhio

That’s ok, Patrick Moran is on the job.


19 posted on 10/24/2012 1:39:22 PM PDT by Defiant (If there are infinite parallel universes, why Lord, am I living in the one with Obama as President?)
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To: MrB

The % of turnout vs 08 could be quite interesting.


20 posted on 10/24/2012 1:40:08 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: TonyInOhio
Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C’ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote” This fits perfectly with what O’Keefe’s guy caught Pat Moran (Jim's son) saying in his voter fraud youtube. When you watch pay attention to his remarks about low Black enthusiasm at 13:00 and again at 19:30. It is 26:55 long but worth the time.This should kill Obama & Kaine as well because their campaign HQs are in the same office.
Let's see the Washington Post ignore this - I hope they try.
21 posted on 10/24/2012 1:40:46 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: TonyInOhio
More from Dave Wasserman:

Virginia Early Vote (con't): Obama drop-off just half of the equation. Let's take a look at the top 25 localities with an increase...

Coal-heavy SW VA in Top 10 early vote surges: 5) Dickenson (+66.8%) 6) Buchanan (+63.6%), 10) Bland (+47.4%). Apathy in '08, anger in '12.

22 posted on 10/24/2012 1:44:35 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Defend Freedom / Defeat Obama)
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To: Red Steel

I wonder if Valerie Jarrett is going to follow the worst family to Hawaii?


23 posted on 10/24/2012 1:46:17 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: sevinufnine

Charlottesville/UVA - a bastion of conservatism. </sarcasm>


24 posted on 10/24/2012 1:48:10 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: GraceG

5 to 10 years from now, Jarrett and Axelrod will be running Obama’s campaign to be president of Kenya. Hawaii is their jumping off point.


25 posted on 10/24/2012 1:59:14 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: TonyInOhio
One worrying thing. I live in a VERY Republican district in a suburb of Richmond, VA. Twice this week we have had doorknockers come to every house in our cul de sac, clipboard in hand, asking if we need a ride to the polls "so we can get out the Obama vote". The disturbing part of this is that we have never seen a Republican sweep of our neighborhood.

Now be aware, we are going to vote Romney but where is the GOTV for the R's?

26 posted on 10/24/2012 2:08:45 PM PDT by Wingy (Don't blame me. I voted for the chick. I hope to do so again.)
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To: Hoodat

>> those extra votes from Dem counties could all be Romney votes <<

Good point. Moreover, my household can report that at least two of the early votes in Arlington County were for the GOP!


27 posted on 10/24/2012 2:16:39 PM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: TonyInOhio
More:

VIRGINIA: In-person absentee voting UP 29.8% in McCain localities vs. this pt in '08, up just 7.7% in Obama localities. Hmm...

VIRGINIA: Mail-in absentee voting up 12.9% in McCain localities vs. this pt in '08, up 2.5% in Obama localities. Slightly smaller gap.

28 posted on 10/24/2012 2:17:19 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Defend Freedom / Defeat Obama)
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To: woweeitsme

Which is why Romney needs to accelerate in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan - contingencies.

Move in, move the needle, force Obama to react — and then drain him dry.


29 posted on 10/24/2012 2:22:58 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: COBOL2Java

30 posted on 10/24/2012 2:28:18 PM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Red Steel

Maybe Hawaii won’t allow extradition...


31 posted on 10/24/2012 2:28:49 PM PDT by Suz in AZ
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To: Shadow44

A Facebook friend in Florida doing the same. Has virtually stopped talking about the campaign on Facebook compared to a few months ago.


32 posted on 10/24/2012 2:40:54 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: TonyInOhio
FWIW - I early voted in Stafford County yesterday, #1648. There were about 10 other people in the office voting or waiting. Unfortunately, they did not appear to be Romney supporters. Elderly and handicapped with a “coordinator” with them helping them vote. I sure it was legit, but I hope my 10 minutes was not indicative of the GOTV effort we're up against since our side never seems to be as aggressive.
33 posted on 10/24/2012 2:43:32 PM PDT by Defender3
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Comment #34 Removed by Moderator

To: Shadow44

OFA has called my house twice lately. I don’t answer any calls anymore unless it’s family. I think they are trying to get ahold of my daughter. LOL She is more conservative than me, college degree, and one of those unemployed. I bet she would give them an earful LOL


35 posted on 10/24/2012 2:53:56 PM PDT by republicangel
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To: rzzzzz
A bit of semantics, but I voted "early"(in-person absentee) yesterday at my County Courthouse using the standard 2012 ballot. I did have to fill out a form stating why I needed to vote early, but there are about 18 categories, one being out-of-town business, which applied.
36 posted on 10/24/2012 2:55:48 PM PDT by Defender3
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To: TonyInOhio

Charlie Cook has been slow to share that this is going to be a big Republican year.

He will probably show the real numbers the day before the election just so he dosen’t look like a complete idiot.


37 posted on 10/24/2012 3:05:10 PM PDT by cgbg (No bailouts for New York and California. Let them eat debt.)
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To: TonyInOhio

Yea, baby! I just voted early in Loudoun County so that I can be a poll watcher on Election Day. Can’t wait to have a president who takes security briefings every 9/11 - instead of going on “Pimp with a Limp!”


38 posted on 10/24/2012 3:16:00 PM PDT by Belle22
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To: Red Steel

I think a 40 oz and a blunt is their jumping off point but whatever....


39 posted on 10/24/2012 3:34:42 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NV, NH = 291EV)
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To: randita

Correct. He’s all over NOVA radio.

Most of the readio ads are focused on abortion, helathcare, and feature female voiceovers


40 posted on 10/24/2012 3:39:39 PM PDT by NOVACPA
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To: TonyInOhio; LS; EGH; Ohioan; dalight; Zuben Elgenubi; Bluestocking; David; GreatOne; Impy; ...
Encouraging, but I fully expect Romney to win VA by a few percentage points anyway, consistent with the latest Ras poll of the state.

Ohio remains the big nut to crack, and, from my electoral vote analysis, could possibly play the same role Florida played in 2000: the Ohio vote could decide the presidency after all other states are settled. Luckily, the Ohio Secretary of State is a Republican, which should make for a fairer vote count and/or recount if necessary. All election lawyers should be making reservations for Columbus just in case.

41 posted on 10/24/2012 3:46:41 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Wingy
The Obama people must have some very bad information if they are offering rides to the polls in a heavily Rep district. Have you voted early in person?

The Rep GOTV is very active and sophisticated in VA. I am part of the effort. You need to get in touch with the Republican chairman of your county committee and express your concerns.

42 posted on 10/24/2012 4:02:03 PM PDT by kabar
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To: TonyInOhio

All the gotv in the world won’t help you if folks don’t want to vote for your candidate.

From my view in tidewater, there is nowhere near the enthusiasm for hussein as there was 4 years ago.

Upshot: VA goes red. Very red. And people will be wondering why they thought VA was a swing state in the first place.


43 posted on 10/24/2012 4:04:33 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Leftists are the small hive beetles of the American hive)
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To: TonyInOhio

Being there is no early voting here in VA, I’d take this with a grain of salt...


44 posted on 10/24/2012 4:09:02 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: TonyInOhio

Good to hear this. I was just sick when my home state went blue in 2008.


45 posted on 10/24/2012 4:11:30 PM PDT by lovesdogs
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To: TonyInOhio

It isn’t going to happen in VA because THERE IS NO EARLY VOTING HERE


46 posted on 10/24/2012 4:11:52 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: rzzzzz
Virginia does not have early voting. In ‘98 they allowed in-person absentee voting, but only with a qualified excuse, such as disabled, out of state, emergency worker with a long shift, etc. This year it is only through the mail.

Newbie, this is absolutely totally false. VA does have early in person absentee ballot voting.

How do I know? I am a poll observer at a poll and have already voted. In-person absentee voting is up in VA. Reps are much more motivated and they are showing up in greater numbers than ever before. The GOP has a major effort to get out the in-person absentee ballots that heretofore has been dominated by the Dems.

We are telling our folks not to use the mail in ballots that can be too easily invalidated on a techincality.

STOP SPREADING THIS FALSEHOOD. IT IS AN OUTRIGHT LIE, NEWBIE.

47 posted on 10/24/2012 4:13:25 PM PDT by kabar
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To: TonyInOhio

If you are a Democrat and there are troubling data coming from Charlottesville, well, you have big troubles.

I love what’s going on in Virginia.


48 posted on 10/24/2012 4:14:02 PM PDT by OldPossum
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To: kabar

You are full of crap. No early voting in VA other than mail in absentee and you need a valid excuse. You stop spreading lies.


49 posted on 10/24/2012 4:17:06 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: wolfman23601
THERE IS NO EARLY VOTING HERE

YOU ARE FULL OF BS. THERE IS IN-PERSON ABSENTEE BALLOTING GOING ON IN VA SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SATELLITE STATION I WORK AT IN FAIRFAX COUNTY, WE HAVE HAD OVER 3000 VOTING INCLUDING MY FAMILY AND ME. THE REPS ARE MAKING A CONCERTED EFFORT TO GET OUR FOLKS TO THE POLLS AND IT IS WORKING.

STOP SPREADING THE LIES. WE HAVE IN PERSON ABSENTEE VOTING IN VA. YES, YOU MUST PROVIDE A REASON AS TO WHY YOU CAN'T MAKE IT TO THE POLLS ON ELECTION DAY, BUT THE REALITY IS THAT YOU USE A HOST OF REASONS AND NO ELECTION OFFICER WILL CHALLENGE YOU. THE DEMS HAVE BEEN DOING IT FOR YEARS AND NOW FINALLY THE GOP HAS WOKE UP.

50 posted on 10/24/2012 4:22:33 PM PDT by kabar
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