Posted on 10/24/2012 6:23:47 PM PDT by cdchik123
One of the states Democrats view as part of an electoral college firewall is still leaning slightly to the president, per Public Policy Polling:
PPP's newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51/47, numbers exactly identical to what they were when we last polled the state two weeks ago.
Obama is already well on his way to winning Nevada based on early votes that have been cast in the week. Among those who say they've already voted he has a 61/39 advantage. Romney is up 51/46 with those planning to vote between now and election day. ...
Obama's leading based on advantages of 69/28 with Hispanics, 82/12 with African Americans, 54/44 with women, and 58/39 with young voters. Romney's ahead with men (50/48), whites (57/42), and seniors (53/45). He also has a 53/44 advantage with independents but he'd probably need to take them by a wider margin than that to overcome the Democratic registration edge in the state.
Republicans have freely acknowledged that this is one of the tougher remaining swing states for Romney. If Obama continues to hold Nevada and Ohio, then Mitt Romney needs to crack Wisconsin in order to get to 270 electoral votes.
Those four guys that Barry has over Romney are the same four guys who showed up at the Jiffy Lube in Reno to see Sandy Fluke last week.
Wow! 12% of blacks and 28% of hispanics for Romney? That’s amazing and will only grow.
I hate to say if but if the people of Nevada vote for Obama they deserve what befalls them. It was, after all, Obama who admonished American businesses and vacationers not to go to Vegas...not to spend their money there!!!
Their unemployment is much higher than the national average and his policies have done NOTHING to inspire confidence amongst the populace that would encourage them to spend disposable income for travel and entertainment which is about all Nevada has to offer !!
I hope they come to their senses...but they keep sending Harry Reid back to Washington so I’m not counting on it!
Doesn’t shock me. Even though it’s a left-leaning pollster, all of the polls show Obama up in Nevada by a few points.
I have Romney at 261 (or 262 if you include ME-01). If Romney can take OH or WI, it’s over.
SIGH.... PPP again (double sigh).
So, what’s the D/R/I breakdown of the Nevada Poll this time... is it going to be D+9 again?
Did Obama trash Las Vegas at one point? And NV is one of the worst states in terms of unemployment.
Have we reached a critical mass of stupidity in this country?
Exactly. The parasites are getting close to overcoming the host.
D +6
42 D, 36 R, 23 I
They re-elected Ried in 2010. I think RR ought to concede NV. They can, and will, win without it.
Even though this is PPP, it is consistent with the Rasmussen poll.
It looks like Iowa and NH are moving Romney’s way. With Nevada that would have cancelled out making Ohio essential...although I seriously doubt that if the more Democrat leaning states of Iowa and NH have moved to Romney that Ohio would not also end up in his column as that is a more Republican state.
Can you advise all on what percentage threshold of votes cast must be achieved to gain a split in Maine?
(I ask here because others may also wonder)
I have a very good smart conservative friend that lives in NV with very good “connections”. Obama by 3-4%.
Amazing that the low information voters cut off their noses to spite their faces and don't even know it. Sad.
Don’t know the numbers, saw a poll where the CD in ME was trending Romney.
“I have Romney at 261 (or 262 if you include ME-01). If Romney can take OH or WI, it’s over.”
What about hitting the needle with NH and Wisconsin?
Maybe Iowa is the better combo with NH.
Okay, let’s run the table!
Gotta get it and Mittmomentum is working.
261 assumes NH holds. WI would then put Romney over the top without OH.
2004
D 35
R 39
I 26
2008
D 38
R 30
I 32
“Is the B.O. lead simply a reflection of the HUGE union presence there?”
Yes.
It is by congressional district, not percentage threshold.
not a huge sample.....
PPP surveyed 636 likely voters from October 22nd to 24th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.9%
dang. That makes it tough to get one.
Nevada’s problem = SEIU
“Did Obama trash Las Vegas at one point? And NV is one of the worst states in terms of unemployment. Have we reached a critical mass of stupidity in this country?”
Barack Elizondo Mountain Dew ObamaCamacho was elected President in 2008. Isn’t that all the proof you are ever going to need?
No state income tax.
One of the top states for economic & personal freedom.
Republican governor, congress critters and one of two senators is a Conservative Republican.
Keep trashing it.
no Nevad reached a critical mass of “i want free candy”
PPP is a certified Dem party front group and push poll outfit !
They are beyond discredited !!
They got caught doing Dem
Party advocacy push polling in WI !
Their polls are garbage and pure fraud !
No the Ras poll,
Has a difference of 2 pts not 4 pts but Romney was winning
Indies by huge margins which means iRas had a + 6 Dem .
Do notvtrustbthis polls by PPP or with huge Dem margins !
The Mormon population in NV is huge and very quiet but they vote .
Reid carried NV because he was Mormon !
The media hides that fact .
What was 2010 ?
Yep! Pretty much!
vaudine
I agree with you and I live here in Nevada. Problem is all in Clark County, AKA Las Vegas.. out here in Pahrump its SOLID Romney, along with other rural areas.. but Reno and Vegas ruin it for the state which stinks. Our town had record turn out for early voting so far AND the good part is it was mostly Republican voters and we have also gained about 1000 new Republicans out here.
Hopefully the sheeple in Vegas will wake up and remember the words “You cant go to Las Vegas”
That’s because we nominated a moron, Angle, to take on Reid.
In 2008, early voting stats in NV had a D vs R ratio of 51.5% of 31.3%. This year, it’s been 47.3% to 35.9%. A 20.2% difference has shrunk to 11.4%. Obama won in 2008 by 12.5%. While NV is not out of Romney’s reach, it appears to be tilting Obama for 2012. Romney is counting on independent voters to provide his margin of victory.
2012 NV early voting stats:
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491
2008 NV early voting stats:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/31/early-voting-suggests-nevada-victory-at-hand-for-obama/
The non-morons knocked each other out.
2008 NV Exit polls
38 - D
30 - R
32 - I
2004 NV Exit Polls
35 - D
39 - R
26 - I
I think Steve Wynn came out against Obama this year didn’t he? That should carry some weight.
Wynn donated to McCain in 2008 and generally gives to R’s. He’s not donated a dime to Obama.
http://www.newsmeat.com/billionaire_political_donations/Steve_Wynn.php
Screw that!
Romney/Ryan just drew a crowd of 10,000 in Henderson (outside Las Vegas). PPP is not a conservative organization -- anything but -- now is the time to fight harder. Get EVERY vote.
This BS about pulling out of states prematurely is the worst advise anyone could give. I'm proven right by PA, NH, and CO just to name a few.
Fight on, fight hard, make calls, go door-to-door. With a D+6 poll, we have every bit as much likelihood of taking the state as the Demonrats!!!
Dick Morris is right (he made the call in 2010) -- when you have the momentum, go bigger -- go for more!
Made sense in 2010, and it makes sense in 2012!!
Steve Wynn came out STRONGLY against Obama about one month ago. He spoke with Sean Hannity for an extended segment and was EXTREMELY critical of Obama.
In particular, he indicated that he resented that the President was fostering ill-will between him (owner) and his employees, by constantly harping on the rich. Steve Wynn indicted that he has given his employees three raises in the past 18 months, at a time when business has been off (remember Obama was telling people not to visit Las Vegas).
I'm sure Steve Wynn has put his money where his mouth is. He may prefer to do it behind the scenes. No matter, he is an outspoken critic of Obama who has not pulled any punches!
I think Nevada may surprise people this year and go Romney. There are a lot of folks here who really dislike Obama - we have no jobs, no tourists and homes being lost every second. There are the liberal idiots but I believe they are a minority.
I don’t have 2010.
Too bad about Nevada... it seems to be turning into CA’s easternmost county.
Apparently the streets are lined with government checks, EBT cards and Obamaphones out there.
Obama loves it when a plan comes together.
“Even though this is PPP, it is consistent with the Rasmussen poll.”
Ras has Inds: R 59% / O 37%!
Could be wrong but don’t feel Wisconsin will be there in the end. Iowa and another string to get there...
That’s just my gut. I’d take WI though!
I have the same numbers. A one state flip, or a IA and NV combo wins it.
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