I was reading into why the Suffolk guy, a couple of weeks, back called FL, VA and NC for Romney - despite polls showing the race in Virginia only 2-3 points.
It wasn’t because overwhelming great polls for Romney (i.e. 50-44, etc). His statistical theory is that an incumbent who cannot get to 49.5 in a state poll is going to lose. And that’s why he backed out of VA, FL and NC. He said if he sees Obama move up to 49-50 then he’d put them back in play. Today’s Rasmussen VA poll has it 50-48 for Romney, so again, Obama is under that number.
I think that’s important to understand. Morris goes by same theory. For example, when Obama leads 47-45, Morris calls that 53-47 for Romney. With the majority of undecideds breaking for Romney (although I think that’s way too generous).
Anyhow, in short, a poll showing Obama up 48-46 is different than a poll showing Romney up 48-46, according to this theory. It’s an interesting theory to remember down the stretch.
If that’s true, then why isn’t Suffolk pulling out of OH too? They just polled OH and have it tied at R47/O47....