Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: tatown

I was reading into why the Suffolk guy, a couple of weeks, back called FL, VA and NC for Romney - despite polls showing the race in Virginia only 2-3 points.

It wasn’t because overwhelming great polls for Romney (i.e. 50-44, etc). His statistical theory is that an incumbent who cannot get to 49.5 in a state poll is going to lose. And that’s why he backed out of VA, FL and NC. He said if he sees Obama move up to 49-50 then he’d put them back in play. Today’s Rasmussen VA poll has it 50-48 for Romney, so again, Obama is under that number.

I think that’s important to understand. Morris goes by same theory. For example, when Obama leads 47-45, Morris calls that 53-47 for Romney. With the majority of undecideds breaking for Romney (although I think that’s way too generous).

Anyhow, in short, a poll showing Obama up 48-46 is different than a poll showing Romney up 48-46, according to this theory. It’s an interesting theory to remember down the stretch.


8 posted on 10/25/2012 7:25:49 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: nhwingut

If that’s true, then why isn’t Suffolk pulling out of OH too? They just polled OH and have it tied at R47/O47....


15 posted on 10/25/2012 8:04:13 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies ]

To: nhwingut
If 49.5 is the magic number, RCP today has O with 253 EVs.
26 posted on 10/25/2012 9:23:03 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson