Skip to comments.The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
Posted on 10/25/2012 11:55:14 AM PDT by LucianOfSamasota
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.
QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.
Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.
Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:
(Excerpt) Read more at unskewedpolls.com ...
Romney is not going to take all of Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregon, or Nevada. Romney will likely win but with about 280 to 290 electoral votes.
You are new here, and I’ve been around a long time.
I Agree! You are spot on.
Let’s party like it’s Nineteen Eight TEA!!!!
I have predicted all along 53% Romney 47% obummer. The vote will follow the tax liability. Those who pay know who the freeloaders are.
I voted for Reagan in 1980.
But those were the days of the ‘moral majority’, and a US population that was proud to be American.
Now we have significant populations of Hispanics, Muslims, and freeloaders who are united in their desire to loot America, to take with their vote what real Americans spent 200+ years to build.
I hope for good things, but I’m not in love with Post-Christian America.
When are we allowed optimism? Obama is so obviously imploding, Romney’s numbers are only getting better, and the media is having a hard time protecting the President, despite their obvious attempts.
The campaigns of winning incumbents do not look like this, Obama is flailing, his internals must be horrible. He’s searching for a retirement home in Hawaii on the down low, he even thinks he’s going to lose .
I’ve been predicting for months that Romney will get 320 to 350 electoral votes and I hold to that.
Very good job! I don’t think MN will flip but it will be close. MI is always a tease but pulls away because of Detroit.
OR is surprise and I think its winnable despite Portland. 54% sounds about right - its what I’ve been predicting.
51% is the low end 54% is the high end and Romney may well take 53%. If O’s numbers begin flat-lining before Election Day, it could even be 55-56% for Romney.
This poll is much more a reflection of what we see on the ground because the party IDs are accurately weighed and each state’s past voting history is taken into account. It looks Bush I’s win in 1988.
I think that’s very realistic in November. The media will never show any of this because they’re in the tank for Obama. Its important to be optimistic not to be prone to defeatism. We won a big victory in 2010 and we’ll win a historic victory in 2012!
We're talkin' about a man who cut his political teeth with the founders of the Weather Underground, and spent his formative years as part of the 20th Century's most corrupt political machine.
Thanks, but my optimism will show on November 7 (or later) when nObama calls President-elect W. Mitt Romney to offer his congratulations. And not a minute before!
In NM Obama has a 9 point lead, and no hope that Wilson will win the Senate race. Republicans wrote us off a long time ago, they didn’t even try. Makes me so mad at them. If the election was not so important I would skip voting, but then again 4 more years of this and we wont survive. Denco
I agree its optomistic however, its not far off. Oregon and Minnesota won’t go red. Nevada I don’t think will go red. As for the rest they are very likely red and if they are not it will be real close.
But don’t be complacient. We must proceed as if we may lose.
No, I don't think that Dummyfraud is a specific factor in the polling, although they seem to select 'Rats for their interviews in greater percentages than in the real voting electorate, so as not to deflate the energy of the 'Rat campaigns and supporters too much. Not surprising, since in many if not most instances, a "polling company" is an appendage of a MSM operation.
Accuracy is not their primary goal, making their pals feel as well as possible under the specific circumstances is.
Yes, and many have predicted that this race will be similar to that one, with the Republican challenger pulling ahead decisively over the unpopular Democratic incumbent in the final weeks.
There seems to be that similarity, but there are some differences too. One is that Carter did not have the seeming lock on some of the biggest states that Obama has. Another is that you had a much stronger third party candidate (John Anderson, a RINO) which added another wrinkle to that race.
take it to the bank :)
Don't forget that the city of Detroit has become largely vacated; it has less than half the population it once had.
And one more thing: the Romney name means something generally positive there, or at least should. His father was elected governor three times. (I confess that when I hear the words "Governor Romney" even now, I think of George Romney.) Is the state suffering from amnesia?
To avoid explaining it again.
I almost hate to say this, but thank GOD the ecomomy sucks right now. Otherwise, we'd probably be looking at 4 more years and the probable death of the Republic, at least as we know it.
I think you will go back after this election and change your mond. The turn out is going to be quite large for republicans and independents and not so much for dems.
In case you missed it, there was a sea change in 2010
Nate Silver on the right. Woot.