The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

unskewedpolls.com ^ | October 25, 2012 | staff

[LucianOfSamasota]

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

[WashingtonSource]

I think this is possible if everything breaks right. I love it that Oregon and Minnesota and Michigan go red. No one is expecting that. Maine could even tip. The Left will be in complete meltdown.

[chimera]

If both OR and MN go to R&R I will eat my hat. Reagan couldn't get MN in ‘84 in the face of a 49-state win. I know Mondull was the favorite son then, but, geez, the ‘Rats are so entrenched there. He couldn't get MN in ‘80 either even though he clobbered Carter nationwide. G. H. W. Bush lost both MN and OR in his ‘88 landslide. I'd love to have to eat my hat, but I don't think it's going to happen.

[justiceseeker93]

We're talkin' about a man who cut his political teeth with the founders of the Weather Underground, and spent his formative years as part of the 20th Century's most corrupt political machine.

And add to that a man who most likely wasn't born in the United states, and, if so, is probably not even an American citizen.

What kind of a dumbed down electorate do we have if they elected him once and we still have to be concerned about the possibility of a second term!!!

[uncbob]

Well I hope so but off year elections don’t always indicate presidential elections
Boobs who don’t realize congress matters vote ONLY in the presidential elections
Democrats got slaughtered in 94
Clinton won in 96
But the economy was booming then

[justiceseeker93]

Hey, chimera, Republicans have won statewide elections in MN not all that long ago. Remember Tim Pawlenty? Remember Norm Coleman?

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

“Is anyone old enough to remember Reagan 1980?”

I voted for Reagan 1980 absentee ballot - I was out of the country at the time. I also remember 20 years earlier when I voted in my first presidential election...1st of three times I voted for Nixon. In 1960 I was in the military.

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

I have tabulated the data here in an Excel spreadsheet, did some other things to it, and plan to use it Election night to check results against this projection. Could be interesting.

Here in Ohio where I am, I sense the winds are blowing a tide that is favorable to Romney. If this is correct, it could be over quickly...News at 11...

If the rest of this map is close to what actually happens, Ohio won’t matter and there will be no ‘hanging chads’. to challenge.

DISCLAIMER: I am not saying that this prognostication is correct, but I see some encouragement in all this. Note to all...achieving these kinds of numbers requires that we ALL get out there and vote, and that we encourage as many right minded folks that we know to do the same.

[Nifster]

Ohio elected Kasic and a ton of other conservatives....that is a sea change

[uncbob]

You don’t think 94 was a sea change
It stopped Clinton’s domestic programs in their tracks

[Nifster]

I think 1980 was a sea change

1994 could have been but there was no follow on PLUS between Dole and the dem smear campaign on Ken Starr....it’s only about sex...the economy was still good and there was no driving desire to swap presidents except by conservatives. That may be a swell but not a change

[Salvation]

Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing.



Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012

State	Clinton 1996	Dole 1996	Gore 2000	Bush 2000	Kerry 2004	Bush 2004	Obama 2008	McCain 2008	State	Projected Obama	Projected Romney	Projected pop Obama	Projected pop Romney
Alabama	43.00	50.00	42.00	56.00	37.00	63.00	39.00	60.00	Alabama	35.60	65.22	776249	1422106
Alaska	33.00	51.00	28.00	59.00	35.50	61.10	37.70	60.20	Alaska	28.90	65.80	83295	189648
Arizona	46.00	44.00	45.00	51.00	44.40	54.90	45.00	53.80	Arizona	40.45	58.90	883941	1287123
Arkansas	54.00	37.00	46.00	51.00	44.50	54.40	38.80	58.80	Arkansas	41.18	58.27	454321	642868
California	51.00	38.00	53.00	42.00	54.30	44.40	60.90	37.30	California	57.15	42.40	7008802	5199881
Colorado	44.00	46.00	42.00	51.00	47.00	51.70	53.50	44.90	Colorado	44.98	54.37	1056479	1277029
Connecticut	52.00	35.00	56.00	38.00	54.30	43.90	60.50	38.30	Connecticut	51.05	46.77	857386	785503
Delaware	52.00	37.00	55.00	42.00	53.30	45.80	61.90	37.00	Delaware	53.90	45.42	230766	194460
District of Columbia	85.00	9.00	85.00	9.00	89.20	9.30	92.90	6.50	District of Columbia	92.38	6.42	218465	15182
Florida	48.00	42.00	49.00	49.00	47.10	52.10	50.90	48.40	Florida	46.10	53.85	3912739	4570521
Georgia	46.00	47.00	43.00	55.00	41.40	58.00	47.00	52.20	Georgia	39.70	61.02	1622253	2493449
Hawaii	57.00	32.00	56.00	37.00	54.00	45.30	71.80	26.60	Hawaii	55.05	43.20	257352	201955
Idaho	34.00	52.00	28.00	67.00	30.30	68.40	36.10	61.50	Idaho	27.45	70.20	183371	468949
Illinois	54.00	37.00	55.00	43.00	54.80	44.50	61.80	36.90	Illinois	53.75	46.32	2991410	2577900
Indiana	42.00	47.00	41.00	57.00	39.30	59.90	49.90	49.00	Indiana	38.40	61.20	1092013	1740395
Iowa	50.00	40.00	49.00	48.00	49.30	49.90	54.00	44.70	Iowa	45.93	53.62	721347	842121
Kansas	36.00	54.00	37.00	58.00	36.60	62.00	41.40	56.80	Kansas	33.10	65.67	412027	817458
Kentucky	46.00	45.00	41.00	57.00	39.70	59.50	41.10	57.50	Kentucky	37.30	62.72	700965	1178674
Louisiana	52.00	40.00	45.00	53.00	42.20	56.70	39.90	58.60	Louisiana	40.13	60.05	812638	1216020
Maine	52.00	31.00	49.00	44.00	53.60	44.60	57.60	40.50	Maine	49.40	49.20	372260	370753
Maryland	54.00	38.00	56.00	40.00	56.00	43.00	61.90	36.80	Maryland	54.33	45.42	1436751	1201127
Massachusetts	61.00	28.00	60.00	33.00	62.00	36.90	62.00	36.20	Massachusetts	56.60	41.50	1780147	1305231
Michigan	52.00	38.00	51.00	46.00	51.20	47.80	57.40	40.90	Michigan	48.25	51.15	2488585	2638158
Minnesota	51.00	35.00	48.00	46.00	51.50	48.00	54.20	44.00	Minnesota	46.53	51.22	1391786	1532072
Mississippi	44.00	49.00	41.00	58.00	40.10	59.10	42.80	56.40	Mississippi	37.33	63.60	473545	806789
Missouri	47.00	41.00	47.00	50.00	46.10	53.30	49.30	49.40	Missouri	42.70	56.40	1292914	1707737
Montana	41.00	44.00	33.00	58.00	38.60	59.10	47.20	49.70	Montana	35.30	60.67	174777	300388
Nebraska	35.00	54.00	33.00	62.00	32.70	66.00	41.50	57.00	Nebraska	30.90	67.72	249953	547794
Nevada	44.00	43.00	46.00	50.00	48.10	50.70	55.10	42.70	Nevada	46.65	52.57	462332	521003
New Hampshire	49.00	39.00	47.00	48.00	50.40	49.00	54.30	44.80	New Hampshire	45.53	53.17	335376	391653
New Jersey	54.00	36.00	56.00	40.00	53.00	46.20	56.80	42.10	New Jersey	50.43	49.05	1922429	1869822
New Mexico	49.00	42.00	48.00	48.00	49.00	49.80	56.70	42.00	New Mexico	46.03	53.42	390653	453371
New York	59.00	31.00	60.00	35.00	58.40	40.10	62.20	36.70	New York	55.25	43.67	4025920	3182116
North Carolina	44.00	49.00	43.00	56.00	43.60	56.10	49.90	49.50	North Carolina	40.48	60.62	1799232	2694403
North Dakota	40.00	47.00	33.00	61.00	35.50	62.90	44.70	53.30	North Dakota	33.65	64.02	109402	208140
Ohio	47.00	40.00	46.00	50.00	48.70	50.80	51.20	47.20	Ohio	45.58	53.97	2493712	2952735
Oklahoma	40.00	48.00	38.00	60.00	34.40	65.60	34.40	65.60	Oklahoma	32.05	67.77	492013	1040365
Oregon	47.00	39.00	47.00	47.00	51.60	47.40	57.10	40.80	Oregon	46.03	51.52	811137	907881
Pennsylvania	49.00	40.00	51.00	46.00	51.00	48.50	54.70	44.30	Pennsylvania	46.78	52.67	2838495	3195885
Rhode Island	60.00	27.00	61.00	32.00	59.40	38.70	63.10	35.30	Rhode Island	56.23	41.22	258912	189798
South Carolina	44.00	50.00	41.00	57.00	41.00	58.10	44.90	53.80	South Carolina	38.08	62.70	747252	1230375
South Dakota	43.00	46.00	38.00	60.00	38.40	59.90	44.70	53.20	South Dakota	36.38	62.75	142828	246357
Tennessee	48.00	46.00	47.00	51.00	42.60	56.90	41.80	56.90	Tennessee	40.20	60.67	1076876	1625225
Texas	44.00	49.00	38.00	59.00	38.20	61.10	43.80	55.50	Texas	36.35	64.12	3049168	5378615
Utah	33.00	54.00	26.00	67.00	26.40	72.70	34.20	62.90	Utah	25.25	72.12	227283	649175
Vermont	53.00	31.00	51.00	41.00	58.90	38.80	67.80	30.60	Vermont	53.03	43.32	177009	144598
Virginia	45.00	47.00	44.00	52.00	45.60	53.80	52.70	46.40	Virginia	42.18	57.77	1631794	2234916
Washington	50.00	37.00	50.00	45.00	52.80	45.60	57.50	40.50	Washington	50.93	48.76	1414351	1354089
West Virginia	51.00	37.00	46.00	52.00	43.20	56.10	42.60	55.70	West Virginia	41.05	58.17	299871	424933
Wisconsin	49.00	39.00	48.00	48.00	49.70	49.40	56.30	42.40	Wisconsin	46.10	52.67	1417615	1619649
Wyoming	37.00	50.00	28.00	68.00	29.10	69.00	32.70	65.20	Wyoming	27.05	71.02	68488	179817
Total	49.00	41.00	48.00	48.00	48.30	50.70	53.00	46.00	Total	45.92	53.63	60128685	70226212

[uncbob]

1980
Nope

Reagan except for a couple years when the GOP had the senate had nothing but an antagonistic democrat congress

1994 till 2006 the GOP held the congress and from 2000-2006 had a GOP congress and president

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks justiceseeker93 and cripplecreek.

[chimera]

I thought Coleman lost to Frankenputz. Anyway, I was looking at Presidential tilts. In-state races they occasionally elect a ‘Pub. You have to go back 40 years to see the last time MN went for a ‘Pub candidate for President. That's two solid generations of blue. Cripes, even MA went for Reagan in ‘80 and ‘84.

[Gideon7]

MN has no voter ID and same-day registration. Anyone can vote if somebody ‘vouches’ for them. Election oversite will be by the Soros SOS project enlistee Mark Ritchie (the former head of ACORN in MN). This is the same SOS that oversaw the endless recounts until Al Franken won.

[justiceseeker93]

I thought Coleman lost to Frankenputz.

Yes, but only after that phony, fraudulent multiple recount conducted under the auspices of the 'Rat Secretary of State. But Coleman was the incumbent; he had been elected to the US Senate six years before that.

And yes, there was at least one other GOP US Senator in the 1980s: Rudy Boschwitz.

[chimera]

I understand that occasionally they go for ‘Pub candidates at the state level. I’m just saying that the recent electoral history of MN does not indicate a lot of support for ‘Pub presidential candidates, and that makes a win by R&R a long shot. That does not mean that they shouldn’t try or that people inclined to vote for them should not do so, because in politics those are the only things we can do.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping and for sharing your insights, dear justiceseeker93!

[Darren McCarty]

The Romney name is big among two groups here.

1. Seniors. George was governor from 63-69. People in their 50's or older remember George. People born in 1945 and earlier had the chance to vote for George. That's important, because there's a large senior population here, and seniors here are more democrat than elsewhere because of unions.

2. Oakland County. That's Mitt's old stomping ground. The family is known there.

Will that make a difference? Maybe.