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MSNBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Tied in Colorado, Close in Nevada
WSJ ^

Posted on 10/25/2012 3:47:07 PM PDT by Arthurio

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are running neck-and-neck in Nevada and Colorado, showing that both candidates still have a path to victory in the Electoral College that runs through the West, new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys show.

The surveys found that Mr. Romney had gained ground against the president in Colorado over the past month, moving from a five-point deficit in mid-September to a tie, with each candidate drawing 48% support among likely voters.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; US: Colorado; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; co2012

1 posted on 10/25/2012 3:47:15 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: All

Even Marist seems to be coming along.


2 posted on 10/25/2012 3:49:51 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

This, on its face, is good news for Romney.

NBC/Marist has been one of the most Obama friendly pollsters all cycle.


3 posted on 10/25/2012 3:51:54 PM PDT by CountryClassSF
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To: Arthurio

Why does the WSJ associate with these leftwing polling outfits? Couldn’t they find anyone with a calculator?


4 posted on 10/25/2012 3:54:25 PM PDT by SC_Pete
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To: Arthurio

Nevada isn’t looking good for us, imo. We have to win OH or WI.

I think CO and NH and probably IA as well go Romney.


5 posted on 10/25/2012 3:54:25 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Arthurio

The polls are scrambling to get in line with reality. They have skewed as much as they could, but, hey, they will still have to peddle their polls when Obama festers on the scrap heap of history.


6 posted on 10/25/2012 3:56:44 PM PDT by fhayek
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This means tied in NV and 3-4% lead in CO.


7 posted on 10/25/2012 3:59:42 PM PDT by Reaganez
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To: Reaganez; Steelfish

Yep you’re right. Marist has turned the worm. Where’s steelfish?


8 posted on 10/25/2012 4:01:48 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Reaganez

Ras has O up by 3 in NV as well. This is right in line. He may be closing in, but the question is does he have enough time to move ahead and not just cut into Obama’s lead?


9 posted on 10/25/2012 4:06:41 PM PDT by paul544
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To: SC_Pete

Other than the editorial page, the WSJ is just another main stream mediot outlet. They cover a particular news niche, but their reports can be just as biased and the NY Times.


10 posted on 10/25/2012 4:30:42 PM PDT by JLS
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To: Arthurio

If the GOP is tied with anything involving the MSNBC folks...

When you put in real actual voter turnout using a model of 2010 or 2004, Romney is going to make everyone at MSNBC start crying.


11 posted on 10/25/2012 4:30:55 PM PDT by Professional
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To: KansasGirl

NV voted for the winning president every time since 1980. What would drive them off course this time?


12 posted on 10/25/2012 4:32:56 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: JediJones

Their called Mexicans.


13 posted on 10/25/2012 4:45:03 PM PDT by heights
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To: Arthurio

In 2008, early voting stats in NV had a D vs R ratio of 51.5% of 31.3%. This year, it’s been 47.3% to 35.9%. A 20.2% difference has shrunk to 11.4%. Obama won in 2008 by 12.5%. While NV is not out of Romney’s reach, it appears to be tilting Obama for 2012. Romney is counting on independent voters to provide his margin of victory.

2012 NV early voting stats:
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491

2008 NV early voting stats:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/31/early-voting-suggests-nevada-victory-at-hand-for-obama/


14 posted on 10/25/2012 5:15:00 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: KansasGirl

These state polls are all having to play catchup right now. Oct.3 really changed things in a way that continues until now. The best display this I’ve found thus far is:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_romney_favorable_unfavorable.html

I can’t reproduce this favorable-unfavorable chart on the thread. You’ll have to visit it. Hover your pointer to see more info about any particular point.

Notice that the movement of Romney has not yet plateaued, and until it does all the polls are behind the curve.


15 posted on 10/25/2012 6:30:02 PM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: Professional

I think that a D/R/I model based on 2010 would be just nuts. Instead, something about halfway between that and 2008 is likely reasonable.

Though the “enthusiasm” of the D voters is definitely lower than 4yr ago, their turnout machine is clearly getting a fair number of -bama voters to early voting, so even though they are “more sporadic” and “less reliable” (CBS Radio news terms on story just now) that machine is cranking and producing.

Meanwhile, the Tea Party has not gone away, either in raison d’etre, numbers, or enthusiasm. They will turn up, both to vote and to crank the GOP machine. Since TP was non-existent (or even negative) in ‘08, the gap will be greatly narrowed.

Halfway seems to be a reasonable place to be, so close to a completely balanced 33/33/33 mix seem about to me at this time, adjusted for each state’s tendency. Since Romney is easily winning the indy’s, that yields an easy win for him in most states.

Oh- one more thing: I suspect that there are many more people falsely stating “I’m voting for Obama” than those who are falsely telling pollsters “I’m voting for Romney”. I believe that has been reflected over and over again in crosstabs via “I’m conservative and voting for -bama” and “I’m Republican and voting for -bama”. That would give a systematic (though small) false blip up for him.


16 posted on 10/25/2012 6:45:18 PM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: Zhang Fei

Independents in Nevada don’t vote early.


17 posted on 10/25/2012 7:24:47 PM PDT by sf4dubya (I rebelled against my parents by becoming a conservative. REJECT THEN STOP SOCIALISM THIS NOV!)
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To: sf4dubya
Independents in Nevada don’t vote early.

The links I provided appear to show that they do. For one thing, D+R in both 2008 and 2012 don't add up to 100%.

18 posted on 10/25/2012 8:09:28 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Arthurio

I got news for MSNBC: It is not tied here in Colorado. Mitt is going to win, and comfortably


19 posted on 10/25/2012 8:19:57 PM PDT by McCloud-Strife ( USA 1776-2008)
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To: JediJones

“NV voted for the winning president every time since 1980. What would drive them off course this time?”

Demographics.

Reply #13 had it right.


20 posted on 10/25/2012 9:34:50 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: CountryClassSF

we need NV and we need Col.....but if we win Ohio it might be a moot point...


21 posted on 10/25/2012 11:36:35 PM PDT by cherry
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