Posted on 10/25/2012 5:15:37 PM PDT by Arthurio
President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden maintain a lead over Republican challengers Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (53% to 41%) among California likely voters in the upcoming presidential election. Findings were similar last month and in July. The second presidential debate occurred while the survey was being conducted. Likely voters nationwide remain closely divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney), according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted at about the same time as our survey.
Overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Republican likely voters support their party’s candidate, while independent likely voters are divided (44% Obama, 43% Romney). Obama led Romney by a wider margin among independents in September (13 points) and July (16 points). While both men (50% Obama, 43% Romney) and women (57% Obama, 38% Romney) prefer Obama, women do so by a larger margin.
Latinos (74%) overwhelmingly support Obama, while half of whites (42% Obama, 52% Romney) support Romney.
The youth vote played an important role in Obama’s 2008 victory; in California, likely voters under 35 still support him by a wide margin (69% to 23% for Romney). A similar share of young voters supported Obama in October 2008 (65%). Voters 35 to 54 are divided (47% Obama, 46% Romney), while voters age 55 and older have a slight preference for Obama (51% Obama, 44% Romney). Obama has a solid lead among those with lower household incomes (63% less than $40,000), while about half of those earning more support Obama.
Majorities of likely voters in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area prefer Obama, while a majority of Other Southern California voters (53%) prefer Romney. Voters in the Central Valley are divided. Majorities of evangelical Protestants (58%) and mainline Protestants (53%) support Romney; Catholics prefer Obama. Those with no religion strongly support Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at ppic.org ...
Since we know Romney will win by 5% nationwide we can assume that Obama probably has a slight lead in CA.
In case people are wondering why California has moved so far to the left. Changing demographics.
I know it is popular to bash CA on this forum, but show some compassion for those of us trapped behind enemy lines.
This could be down to single digits by election day.
Nobody's got a gun to your head. The borders to AZ, NV, and points north are all open and unguarded.
If you're hoping we're going to launch some Chuck Norris 'Missing In Action' rescue mission, it could be a very long wait.
Our shepherds are not spelling it out adequately. At least in my Diocese of Monterey.
2008 actuals: 61% to 37%.
Here’s the bright side,
If O’s really up that much in Ca, and behind nationally by 3 to 5 points that means landslide in the rest of the nation.
Too many states are trending this way over the decades.
New Jersey was once up for grabs and is now a safe Blue state.
Pennsylvania (my home) is supposedly up for grabs, but I think it is still a safe Blue state based on the corruption and demographics.
Ohio is trending in this direction. While Romney might win this cycle, I see the road ahead for us very difficult.
Compassion for CA residents? On this forum?? Not a chance. Those of us born, raised, schooled, and worked for 30 years in CA are expected to up and move because of the politics.
Its very soft! He got 62% last time in CA so this is a fall of almost 10 percentage points off his last win there. His supporters are not that enthusiastic - and I bet it’ll be even closer there than the polls indicate.
Don’t despair, the idiots who advise you to move to their paradise live in states where 47%+ of their neighbours prefer the Communist!
We got out why not you guys?.Its not going to get any better and everybody knows that.
Don’t despair, the idiots who advise you to move to their paradise live in states where 47%+ of their neighbours prefer the Communist!
I know how you feel. I live in Maryland.
Born and raised here, my family came here in the 1600’s I am not about to leave, but the Democrats have the power here. We are fighting though.
Correct. If only white people were voting, the Democratic party would lose decisively even in California.
Unfortunately, demographics are moving rapidly against us. More and more states will look increasingly like California demographics-wise. Unless we can figure out a way to win a higher share of minority (Hispanic) voters, in another generation (or less) we will be hard pressed to win even Texas.
If you’re lucky, maybe a giant tidal wave will sweep in and wash away all of the fruits, nuts, and flakes that infest the california coast. Maybe then could california could reclaim its title as the golden state. Such a shame that a wonderful state has been dragged down that far by liberal minions.
If all the undecideds break for Romney, Obama wins California by 53 to 47 percent. According to Gallup, however, Obama’s approval in California is only 50.1 percent.
Not so sure about that, they hate Californians in Washington and Oregon, I understand they are considering armed border stops.
That breaks my heart.
Someone has to be on the front lines - I guess it's us. And there is nothing like our "fellow conservatives" for wishing we'd fall off into the ocean.
Dependable. Reliable. Kinda almost gives you the warm fuzzies after a dozen years or so.
This place, where I too still live, is circling the drain.
Reality is that California’s 55 electoral votes represent the singular reason any Democrat can be elected to the presidency. The GOP needs to start making inroads in the cities and California. It can be done but needs some creative thinking.
I think back to what Yoda said in Empire Strikes Back... “Slimy?! Mudhole?! My Home This Is!”
A question for whomever can answer it. How would the electorial votes pan out IF California let each congressional district pick (based upon voting in that district) to whom the districts EV goes? Would there be many or just a few EVs going to Romney.
I suspect that the “winner take all” system heavily favors a dem candidate. I think that CA probably has a great many congressional districts where a GOP pres candidate would win. Is this true?
That's up to you. If you want to live in a socialist hellhole, stay in California. I'd leave if I were stuck there and had the means to get out, but I can understand why others choose a different path. There is an argument to be made that states like yours can never recover if all the good conservatives bail. Kinda like the brain drain Cuba has suffered.
CA is just a gaudy more expensive version of MA. It no longer is a bellwether state.
True, but can you imagine if we forced the Dems to defend it?
Exactly. Voter education is the way. No educated voter would vote for the Communist Muslim. Is it achievable? I doubt it.
We feel bad for ya, but you can always vote with your feet. I think Reagan said that.
California will NEVER award its EV to a GOP national popular vote winner.
The day that ever happens, CA Democrats will swiftly withdraw the state from the so-called “popular vote” compact.
Texas and California have the exact same percentage of Hispanics (both 31%), what saves Texas is fewer Catholics, and more Evangelicals.
LATINOS = MEXICANS
My County will go for Romney.
Unbfortunately there are too many Obama voters in the other counties to carry the state.
So he's got four percent more support now among young likely voters than he did four years ago. I don't believe it.
You are correct. The majority of the state, geographically, is rural and conservative. The urban areas of Lost Angeles and San Francisco drag us into the sewer every time. Orange County used to be solidly, reliably, conservative - not anymore.
Changing demographics are a big part of it, but Anglos thinking it wouldn’t happen or ignoring the consequences greatly contributed to the “Changing demographics”
Young people can’t even get a job with a college degree. What’s to like about Obama?
Texas has more Hispanics who work. California is loaded up with Mexcians on welfare.
True, Texas never has gone for an elaborate, lavish, welfare system.
Believe it or not MA is about the same numbers.
no surprise, that Kalifornia, the home of kooks, feminazis, environazis, open-borders nazis, retreat from our national security interest Libertarians, and a state that business and people who are producers are fleeing from - would be for Obama
Kalifornia is the Greece of the U.S.
a financial basket case of its own making
(I grew up there and still have family there)
majorities there have taken up and made a priority of every nutty and destructive left wing cause
those who remain (a majority of them) are constantly reaping what they’ve sown and then looking for scapegoats for what’s happened, and repeating the same “solution”, which is in effect saying - “we don’t need new policies or new directions, we just aren’t taxing enough”; then the cycle repeats, things continue to deteriorate, the scapegoating continues, and the next solution is more taxes
will the last producer to leave California please take the state flag with you
Personally, I think contrasting classic American thought borne from Aristotelian logic with progressivism, would win out; but how to do it, is the stickler. I don't see conservatives winning in future elections just because of the reality of what our educational indoctrination centers are producing.
I think as soon as this election is over, a cell needs to be formed (with Jim Rob's permission) to tackle this. We are destined for defeat absent intentional effort to do so. Thoughts?
California, like Michigan is the epitome of what happens when liberal/MARXISTS/democRats are in control.
i.e Boxer, Feinstein, Pelosi. 3 women who don’t have a single brain cell between them. It has proven to be a formula for disaster.
Not trying to be sexist, but this is what happens when radical women get control of ANYTHING.
..considering McCain lost by 24 points, a loss of 10 or less could be considered a moral victory—sort of...
Just post vanities on it and let it snow ball, if there is an interest.
Not taking it as sexist - it's the TRUTH.
They don’t call kalifornia the land of fruits and nuts for nothing!
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