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Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney
TIME The Page ^ | October 24, 2012 | Mark Halperin |

Posted on 10/25/2012 8:50:11 PM PDT by Kenny

47% is probably the most famous number to come out of the 2012 presidential campaign. That’s the percentage of Americans Mitt Romney suggested he was writing off when captured on that famous secretly recorded video during a Florida fundraiser.

But 47% also represents the critical dividing line between how the Romney and Obama campaigns gauge the President’s chances of re-election, viewed through the prisms of their closely guarded internal polling data. In general, the Republicans see a ceiling of around 47% for Obama’s share of the vote in most of the nine battleground states that will decide this contest. The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.

Both campaigns employ top-flight pollsters who are paid to scientifically take the pulse of the electorate in the battleground states and deliver to the candidate and his strategists an unvarnished view of the state of the race at any given moment. It doesn’t well serve either the incumbent or the challenger to sugarcoat the situation by producing poll results that overstate support (as some pollsters are famous for doing). The key differential between the Chicago and Boston methodologies appears to be assumptions about the final makeup of the electorate in the nine battleground contests.

If the President’s internal data is correct, he is indeed likely to win, pushing off a floor above 47%; using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day; and taking a significant share of the small remaining undecided vote. These numbers apply to Chicago’s data from the battleground states, where the President’s support in his campaign’s internal research has consistently outperformed his national poll standing.

(Excerpt) Read more at thepage.time.com ...


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superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting

In other words, voter fraud.

1 posted on 10/25/2012 8:50:14 PM PDT by Kenny
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To: Kenny

MSNBC suspension

On June 30, 2011, Halperin was suspended from his duties at MSNBC for “slurring” President Barack Obama on the program Morning Joe, saying the President came off as “kind of a dick” during the previous day’s press conference.[13][14] His suspension was lifted a little over a month later.[15]

Criticism

In December 2011, Halperin was listed as #1 in Salon.com’s 2011 Hack List, his reporting described as “shallow and predictable” as well as “both fixated solely on the horse race and also uniquely bad at analyzing the horse race.” [16]


2 posted on 10/25/2012 8:54:53 PM PDT by A_Former_Democrat
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To: Kenny

If we can’t win this election its over.


3 posted on 10/25/2012 8:55:21 PM PDT by svxdave (Life is too short to wear a fake Rolex.)
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To: Kenny

I find it strange that all the polls have him at 47%. I think it’s code to the faithful not to worry, the fix is in.


4 posted on 10/25/2012 8:55:31 PM PDT by Melian ("Where will wants not, a way opens.")
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To: Kenny
They're CONFIDENT ? Sell me the Brooklyn Bridge.


Only if they have sufficient voter fraud all lined up.
5 posted on 10/25/2012 8:56:02 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Kenny

What are they going to say? That they’re dead in the water two weeks out from the election?

Most Dems are putting on a happy face, and busy secretly forwarding resumes for January.


6 posted on 10/25/2012 8:56:02 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: Kenny
using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day

Except that, data from early and absentee voting in the swing states shows him badly underperforming his 2008 results and the GOP significantly improving on McCain's 2008 numbers; in Ohio, or example, Obama is behind 120,000 votes from his tally at this point in 2008.

All polling shows Obama losing the Independent vote by huge margins, and he will swamped by the in-person vote on Election Day.

In other words, this piece of drivel was fed to that toady Halperin to keep the Libs from jumping off the ledge.

7 posted on 10/25/2012 8:57:32 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Defend Freedom / Defeat Obama)
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To: Kenny

Democrat precincts get out 110% of the vote in many of our nations Black inner cities. They also have a great “ground game,” getting the dead out to vote.

To have honest elections, we will need to go back to voting only on election day and having the voter put a finger in indelible purple ink should be mandatory. Putting the military in areas where voter fraud is rife should also be a requirement. Why should Iraq have more secure elections than the USA?


8 posted on 10/25/2012 8:59:10 PM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Shadow44

The GOP-e would be bashing Romney and distancing themselves from him if he were behind at this point.

The Obama people may just be more loyal or better bluffers, but I think they honestly believe they are going to win this thing.

I will also say that if white voters sit at home again and the minorities set another turnout record, then yes, we will lose. I also agree that if that happens, we will probably never win another Presidential election for a long, long, long time.

Lets go out and prove them wrong. The very survival of our country depends on it.


9 posted on 10/25/2012 9:00:39 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: A_Former_Democrat

He IS “kind of a dick”! Come on Halperin, GROW A PAIR!!!


10 posted on 10/25/2012 9:02:40 PM PDT by Frank_2001
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To: Kenny

Early voting is the biggest threat to our nation and the Republican Party.

Measures beyond Voter ID and abolishing Early Voting must be taken to included US Passport required to vote, law enforcement officers at all polling stations, Criminal Background checks at all polling stations and repeal of the Voting Rights Act(s).


11 posted on 10/25/2012 9:04:58 PM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: Kenny
This White House has been running on magic for four years.

They slapped God in the face during the Democratic convention more than once.

I believe that this will be a serious factor that Obama will not be able to overcome.

12 posted on 10/25/2012 9:06:14 PM PDT by Slyfox
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To: Frank_2001

Indeed he is. And Halperin’s your typical spoiled little brat phony “Journ O List”


13 posted on 10/25/2012 9:10:32 PM PDT by A_Former_Democrat
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To: txrefugee

txrefugee:~ “ Why should Iraq have more secure elections than the USA? “

Because George Soros isn’t responsible for counting the election ballots in Iraq !!

But he did buy into the company that counts the U.S election ballots !
What do you think all the ammmo that the U.S Govt. has recently purchased ( Hollow point bullets ) is for ??

Target practice ??
Heck no !! You use either ball ammo. or wad-cutters for targets.
Now,.. use your brain ....


14 posted on 10/25/2012 9:13:34 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt (Islam is a political organization which hides behind religious intolerance for others)
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To: Kenny

I don’t think bambi is acting confident at all, he is acting like a loser, making idiotic statements and focusing on binders, bayonets, and big bird. His campaign is a frikken mess and getting worse. There will be vote fraud, but not enough to overcome the tidal wave that is coming.

Its over for the child president.


15 posted on 10/25/2012 9:31:50 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: TonyInOhio
Obama is behind 120,000 votes from his tally at this point in 2008.

If you can point me to a source for that, I'll sleep better tonight ... :)

16 posted on 10/25/2012 9:32:47 PM PDT by 11th_VA (Keep your laws OFF my Big Gulp !)
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To: 11th_VA

Actually, we want you to stay awake and worry!


17 posted on 10/25/2012 9:33:45 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: Revolting cat!
It's working:

From Huff Post

18 posted on 10/25/2012 9:45:32 PM PDT by 11th_VA (Keep your laws OFF my Big Gulp !)
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To: 11th_VA

Mark was on a Greta panel tonite saying the same things. The panel was laughing at him, but he was serious.


19 posted on 10/25/2012 9:49:50 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: gswilder
When I looked at the raw numbers a bit more, we have to remember the "other" (non-affiliated) seem to be breaking for Romney by a fairly significant amount. So the 'Red vs Blue' in those early vote numbers need to be weighted more for the red.

I think I can sleep better now :)

20 posted on 10/25/2012 9:58:29 PM PDT by 11th_VA (Keep your laws OFF my Big Gulp !)
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To: Kenny
The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.

The Obama team are pathological liars.
21 posted on 10/25/2012 10:04:26 PM PDT by 867V309
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To: Uncle Slayton

“Early voting is the biggest threat to our nation and the Republican Party.”

Republicans work. They don’t have all day to stand in line on Election Day so early voting helps them as well.


22 posted on 10/25/2012 10:12:55 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: gswilder

Do you recall who else was on that panel?

Can I assume that their take was that Obama was not in superior competitive position relative to Romney?


23 posted on 10/25/2012 10:36:12 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Kenny; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll Ping.


24 posted on 10/25/2012 10:39:35 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Melian
maybe the fix is in...who knows...

Romney is in this to win....he's not a baby....he knows what goes on.....he's not nieve....

these pollsters are manipulators however...

you'll get the bamey ones who will push all the bamey positives and, truely, there are no media/pollsters who are ever in pubs corner...

stay positive....donate...volunteer...vote...

25 posted on 10/25/2012 10:42:21 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Uncle Slayton
those vote protections will never be enlisted IF bamey wins this....there will be no pub president ever again...we'll have a banana republic with a one party rule...like Mexico had for 50 yrs....

there will be a mafia like war among the rats though, which will at least be entertaining...and then maybe some of them will be forced to be differentiate themselves by being conservative...

26 posted on 10/25/2012 10:45:57 PM PDT by cherry
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To: 11th_VA
I haven’t really heard how endorsing gay marriage has affected black voter turn out. I have read that Black Ministers really don’t like Obama’s gay marriage intiatives and aren’t pushing for the Obama vote. Did Obama really think more gays would vote for him than he would lose in black votes?
27 posted on 10/25/2012 10:46:58 PM PDT by carcraft (Pray for our Country)
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To: Uncle Slayton

Doing your schtick again, Slayton?


28 posted on 10/25/2012 10:58:25 PM PDT by Yardstick
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To: Kenny

Dead men tell no tales however, sometimes they do vote. It is said that 9 out of 10 dead people prefer donkeys to elephants!

Let’s not forget the donkey ‘money’ quote: “Vote early and vote often!”


29 posted on 10/26/2012 12:09:24 AM PDT by A Formerly Proud Canadian (I once was lost but now I'm found; blind but now I see.)
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To: Kenny

I’ve got news for ya, Mark: they aren’t confident.


30 posted on 10/26/2012 1:25:55 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: onyx

if Romney loses...the public will get voter fraud fixed once and for all...with an axe if necessary...not a soul will believe Obambi won....not one


31 posted on 10/26/2012 1:33:09 AM PDT by advertising guy (" that lie has it's own sleep number " David Feherty PGA Championship 2012)
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To: Kenny

It would have been nice had Halperin devoted even one sentence to laying out the case as to why this is all so much folderol.


32 posted on 10/26/2012 1:43:39 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: Kenny
and taking a significant share of the small remaining undecided vote.

Not going to happen.

Only in the deluded world of the Left does 47% beat 50%.

33 posted on 10/26/2012 1:54:43 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration
"definitive sureness about the outcome." !!!

When they (in this case a shill for the campaign, not the campaign itself, but the following applies to both) use a tautological adjective to modify an already tautalogical-adjective-mangled-into-a-noun, it's psycho-structurally over.

Might as well just use "absolute" or it's adverb, "absolutely" - Obama's most worn out tautological distractives. The private sector is absolutely not doing fine. The video was absolutely reprehensible.

A great concept/phrase is that of damning with faint praise.

Here, we have double damning by attempting to modify a tautology.

34 posted on 10/26/2012 3:00:24 AM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: TonyInOhio

The fact that obama is coming to Cleveland this week instead of swing-voter territory in Ohio means he is very weak in our state. 48-46 o/R? Not even close here I would say. His ground effort must not be doing much good.


35 posted on 10/26/2012 3:47:33 AM PDT by gotribe (He's a mack-daddy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AV415yit7Zg)
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To: Kenny
Wrong. I don't know about the "internal" stuff but in Dayton OH the D GOTV is a joke this time. Example: Obama rolled into town last week for a rally of 9000. The Ds had 27(!!!) Greyhound busses to take those from the rally to early vote at election HQ. R observers were ready. One full bus arrived. Then a half full, . . . Then empty busses. We posted a pic yesterday of the empty chairs at HQ. they got 300 when they expected "thousands". One GOP operative said the Ds have the " deer in the headlights" look and can't believe what is happening to them. Rs in my sing county actually expect to win the county, overcoming a 5000 08 deficit. We OUTREGISTERED Ds

Does all that sound like a great GOTV effort?

36 posted on 10/26/2012 3:59:34 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: 11th_VA

Please read the spreadsheet links that we have posted here for two months. Ad I think the number is closer to -175,000 from 08 absentees for the Ds.


37 posted on 10/26/2012 4:02:46 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: cherry

You are right! All we can do is stay positive, donate, volunteer, vote, and pray.

I am leery after the myth of the PUMAs from the last election. I don’t believe there were any. It was just a red herring perpetrated by the media to lull the GOP into missteps. It seems very odd to me that all the numbers are 47%.


38 posted on 10/26/2012 6:05:22 AM PDT by Melian ("Where will wants not, a way opens.")
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To: Kenny

In the words of Yogi Berra - “It isn’t over till it’s over.”

Yep, looks really good for Romney, but he hasn’t won yet and the ‘rats are desperate. They’d like nothing more than for us to get over confident and end up losing. And, they cheat.

We still have over a week to go. Keep fighting the good fight.


39 posted on 10/26/2012 6:23:10 AM PDT by KosmicKitty (WARNING: Hormonally crazed woman ahead!!)
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To: 11th_VA
Click Here for the Ohio spreadsheet that LS was talking about.

The Absentee votes and Early voting are being counted together in these numbers for 2012. The 2008 numbers are absentees only...Ohio didn't have early voting back then.

The numbers change every couple of days so save the link under your favorites and you can check back regularly to see what's happening in Ohio.

Best Regards,

umbob

40 posted on 10/26/2012 6:44:13 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: Kenny

They’re not worried about winning. They’re just trying to determine to what level their cheating will have to be in order to not raise any/many red flags. They don’t want to overdo it. Like Joe Kennedy asked JFK, “Well, you didn’t think I was going to buy you a landslide, did you?”

They always cheat. We always catch some of it. But how much flies under the radar?


41 posted on 10/26/2012 6:53:21 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: advertising guy

The demonic-rats will never go along with fixing voter fraud. It’s how they win elections. Just look at their court fights against Voter ID.


42 posted on 10/26/2012 7:03:47 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: LS
One full bus arrived. Then a half full, . . . Then empty busses. We posted a pic yesterday of the empty chairs at HQ. they got 300 when they expected "thousands". One GOP operative said the Ds have the " deer in the headlights" look and can't believe what is happening to them.

Oh man, I would have loved to have seen this.

43 posted on 10/26/2012 7:38:12 AM PDT by Yardstick
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To: Yardstick; SoftwareEngineer

SoftwareEngineer posted the pic yesterday. Can you repost Sotware?


44 posted on 10/26/2012 7:57:36 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: svxdave

Halperin’s been taken in by these guys. These sorts of stories were coming out from the McCain campaign about this time in 2008. The reasons were different, but the “We push off a floor of thus and such” crap was in there.


45 posted on 10/26/2012 9:05:49 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: Shadow44; Kenny
What are they going to say? That they’re dead in the water two weeks out from the election? Most Dems are putting on a happy face, and busy secretly forwarding resumes for January.

Sometimes the candidate doesn't even know they're done at this point. IIRC, somebody took George Bush aside and gave him the news the Friday before Election Day that it was impossible to win.

46 posted on 10/26/2012 9:07:42 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: Yardstick

Which points of mine do you disagree?

Do you not believe that early voting leads to voter fraud?

Do you not believe that there should be enhanced Voter ID efforts?

Do you believe that we should let felons vote?

Are you opposed to having having polling stations secure?

Do you advocate the current Voting Rights Acts?


47 posted on 10/26/2012 9:27:15 AM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: fortheDeclaration

If the polls are crap, and not just crap but such crap they don’t even indicate trends and momentum anymore, there might be a way they can still think they’re going to win. But if Romney really is at 50, then the most they should be confident about is that the thing will be really, really tight, not that they will win with some turnout machine. I mean, if polls of likely voters don’t indicate what likely voters will do, why are they citing polls of likely voters for their 47% number?


48 posted on 10/26/2012 9:52:01 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: MayflowerMadam

We all know the Dems cheat, but I’m pretty tired of hearing this “we won’t win because they cheat” crap from FReepers in every election. We heard we wouldn’t win the Congress in 2010 because they would cheat. We heard they’d cheat Scott Walker out of office and he won handily EVEN THOUGH a liberal judge put an injunction up against voter ID and we KNOW Dems bussed people in from other states.

If these guys thought they were going to cheat their way to a win, they wouldn’t be sending Obozo out on the campaign trail with laryngitis and they wouldn’t be sending him to a state (Wisconsin) he won by 18 points to do a rally a week before the election. And we would be seeing the GOPe running from Romney as fast as they could, pretending somehow it was the conservatives’ fault he’s losing. Instead they’re confident and working hard.

They can only steal an election if it’s close...so get to work and make sure it ain’t close. Given what we’re seeing in Ohio, I don’t think it will be.


49 posted on 10/26/2012 10:09:13 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: Uncle Slayton

You pushed the caricature a little too far with the passports bit. One of these days the viking kitties are going to have their way with you.


50 posted on 10/26/2012 4:27:29 PM PDT by Yardstick
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