Skip to comments.Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney
Posted on 10/25/2012 8:50:11 PM PDT by Kenny
47% is probably the most famous number to come out of the 2012 presidential campaign. Thats the percentage of Americans Mitt Romney suggested he was writing off when captured on that famous secretly recorded video during a Florida fundraiser.
But 47% also represents the critical dividing line between how the Romney and Obama campaigns gauge the Presidents chances of re-election, viewed through the prisms of their closely guarded internal polling data. In general, the Republicans see a ceiling of around 47% for Obamas share of the vote in most of the nine battleground states that will decide this contest. The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.
Both campaigns employ top-flight pollsters who are paid to scientifically take the pulse of the electorate in the battleground states and deliver to the candidate and his strategists an unvarnished view of the state of the race at any given moment. It doesnt well serve either the incumbent or the challenger to sugarcoat the situation by producing poll results that overstate support (as some pollsters are famous for doing). The key differential between the Chicago and Boston methodologies appears to be assumptions about the final makeup of the electorate in the nine battleground contests.
If the Presidents internal data is correct, he is indeed likely to win, pushing off a floor above 47%; using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day; and taking a significant share of the small remaining undecided vote. These numbers apply to Chicagos data from the battleground states, where the Presidents support in his campaigns internal research has consistently outperformed his national poll standing.
(Excerpt) Read more at thepage.time.com ...
In other words, voter fraud.
On June 30, 2011, Halperin was suspended from his duties at MSNBC for “slurring” President Barack Obama on the program Morning Joe, saying the President came off as “kind of a dick” during the previous day’s press conference. His suspension was lifted a little over a month later.
In December 2011, Halperin was listed as #1 in Salon.com’s 2011 Hack List, his reporting described as “shallow and predictable” as well as “both fixated solely on the horse race and also uniquely bad at analyzing the horse race.” 
If we can’t win this election its over.
I find it strange that all the polls have him at 47%. I think it’s code to the faithful not to worry, the fix is in.
What are they going to say? That they’re dead in the water two weeks out from the election?
Most Dems are putting on a happy face, and busy secretly forwarding resumes for January.
Except that, data from early and absentee voting in the swing states shows him badly underperforming his 2008 results and the GOP significantly improving on McCain's 2008 numbers; in Ohio, or example, Obama is behind 120,000 votes from his tally at this point in 2008.
All polling shows Obama losing the Independent vote by huge margins, and he will swamped by the in-person vote on Election Day.
In other words, this piece of drivel was fed to that toady Halperin to keep the Libs from jumping off the ledge.
Democrat precincts get out 110% of the vote in many of our nations Black inner cities. They also have a great “ground game,” getting the dead out to vote.
To have honest elections, we will need to go back to voting only on election day and having the voter put a finger in indelible purple ink should be mandatory. Putting the military in areas where voter fraud is rife should also be a requirement. Why should Iraq have more secure elections than the USA?
The GOP-e would be bashing Romney and distancing themselves from him if he were behind at this point.
The Obama people may just be more loyal or better bluffers, but I think they honestly believe they are going to win this thing.
I will also say that if white voters sit at home again and the minorities set another turnout record, then yes, we will lose. I also agree that if that happens, we will probably never win another Presidential election for a long, long, long time.
Lets go out and prove them wrong. The very survival of our country depends on it.
He IS “kind of a dick”! Come on Halperin, GROW A PAIR!!!
Early voting is the biggest threat to our nation and the Republican Party.
Measures beyond Voter ID and abolishing Early Voting must be taken to included US Passport required to vote, law enforcement officers at all polling stations, Criminal Background checks at all polling stations and repeal of the Voting Rights Act(s).
They slapped God in the face during the Democratic convention more than once.
I believe that this will be a serious factor that Obama will not be able to overcome.
Indeed he is. And Halperin’s your typical spoiled little brat phony “Journ O List”
txrefugee:~ “ Why should Iraq have more secure elections than the USA? “
Because George Soros isn’t responsible for counting the election ballots in Iraq !!
But he did buy into the company that counts the U.S election ballots !
What do you think all the ammmo that the U.S Govt. has recently purchased ( Hollow point bullets ) is for ??
Target practice ??
Heck no !! You use either ball ammo. or wad-cutters for targets.
Now,.. use your brain ....
I don’t think bambi is acting confident at all, he is acting like a loser, making idiotic statements and focusing on binders, bayonets, and big bird. His campaign is a frikken mess and getting worse. There will be vote fraud, but not enough to overcome the tidal wave that is coming.
Its over for the child president.
If you can point me to a source for that, I'll sleep better tonight ... :)
Actually, we want you to stay awake and worry!
From Huff Post
Mark was on a Greta panel tonite saying the same things. The panel was laughing at him, but he was serious.
I think I can sleep better now :)
“Early voting is the biggest threat to our nation and the Republican Party.”
Republicans work. They don’t have all day to stand in line on Election Day so early voting helps them as well.
Do you recall who else was on that panel?
Can I assume that their take was that Obama was not in superior competitive position relative to Romney?
Romney is in this to win....he's not a baby....he knows what goes on.....he's not nieve....
these pollsters are manipulators however...
you'll get the bamey ones who will push all the bamey positives and, truely, there are no media/pollsters who are ever in pubs corner...
there will be a mafia like war among the rats though, which will at least be entertaining...and then maybe some of them will be forced to be differentiate themselves by being conservative...
Doing your schtick again, Slayton?
Dead men tell no tales however, sometimes they do vote. It is said that 9 out of 10 dead people prefer donkeys to elephants!
Let’s not forget the donkey ‘money’ quote: “Vote early and vote often!”
I’ve got news for ya, Mark: they aren’t confident.
if Romney loses...the public will get voter fraud fixed once and for all...with an axe if necessary...not a soul will believe Obambi won....not one
It would have been nice had Halperin devoted even one sentence to laying out the case as to why this is all so much folderol.
Not going to happen.
Only in the deluded world of the Left does 47% beat 50%.
When they (in this case a shill for the campaign, not the campaign itself, but the following applies to both) use a tautological adjective to modify an already tautalogical-adjective-mangled-into-a-noun, it's psycho-structurally over.
Might as well just use "absolute" or it's adverb, "absolutely" - Obama's most worn out tautological distractives. The private sector is absolutely not doing fine. The video was absolutely reprehensible.
A great concept/phrase is that of damning with faint praise.
Here, we have double damning by attempting to modify a tautology.
The fact that obama is coming to Cleveland this week instead of swing-voter territory in Ohio means he is very weak in our state. 48-46 o/R? Not even close here I would say. His ground effort must not be doing much good.
Does all that sound like a great GOTV effort?
Please read the spreadsheet links that we have posted here for two months. Ad I think the number is closer to -175,000 from 08 absentees for the Ds.
You are right! All we can do is stay positive, donate, volunteer, vote, and pray.
I am leery after the myth of the PUMAs from the last election. I don’t believe there were any. It was just a red herring perpetrated by the media to lull the GOP into missteps. It seems very odd to me that all the numbers are 47%.
In the words of Yogi Berra - “It isn’t over till it’s over.”
Yep, looks really good for Romney, but he hasn’t won yet and the ‘rats are desperate. They’d like nothing more than for us to get over confident and end up losing. And, they cheat.
We still have over a week to go. Keep fighting the good fight.
The Absentee votes and Early voting are being counted together in these numbers for 2012. The 2008 numbers are absentees only...Ohio didn't have early voting back then.
The numbers change every couple of days so save the link under your favorites and you can check back regularly to see what's happening in Ohio.
They’re not worried about winning. They’re just trying to determine to what level their cheating will have to be in order to not raise any/many red flags. They don’t want to overdo it. Like Joe Kennedy asked JFK, “Well, you didn’t think I was going to buy you a landslide, did you?”
They always cheat. We always catch some of it. But how much flies under the radar?
The demonic-rats will never go along with fixing voter fraud. It’s how they win elections. Just look at their court fights against Voter ID.
Oh man, I would have loved to have seen this.
SoftwareEngineer posted the pic yesterday. Can you repost Sotware?
Halperin’s been taken in by these guys. These sorts of stories were coming out from the McCain campaign about this time in 2008. The reasons were different, but the “We push off a floor of thus and such” crap was in there.
Sometimes the candidate doesn't even know they're done at this point. IIRC, somebody took George Bush aside and gave him the news the Friday before Election Day that it was impossible to win.
Which points of mine do you disagree?
Do you not believe that early voting leads to voter fraud?
Do you not believe that there should be enhanced Voter ID efforts?
Do you believe that we should let felons vote?
Are you opposed to having having polling stations secure?
Do you advocate the current Voting Rights Acts?
If the polls are crap, and not just crap but such crap they don’t even indicate trends and momentum anymore, there might be a way they can still think they’re going to win. But if Romney really is at 50, then the most they should be confident about is that the thing will be really, really tight, not that they will win with some turnout machine. I mean, if polls of likely voters don’t indicate what likely voters will do, why are they citing polls of likely voters for their 47% number?
We all know the Dems cheat, but I’m pretty tired of hearing this “we won’t win because they cheat” crap from FReepers in every election. We heard we wouldn’t win the Congress in 2010 because they would cheat. We heard they’d cheat Scott Walker out of office and he won handily EVEN THOUGH a liberal judge put an injunction up against voter ID and we KNOW Dems bussed people in from other states.
If these guys thought they were going to cheat their way to a win, they wouldn’t be sending Obozo out on the campaign trail with laryngitis and they wouldn’t be sending him to a state (Wisconsin) he won by 18 points to do a rally a week before the election. And we would be seeing the GOPe running from Romney as fast as they could, pretending somehow it was the conservatives’ fault he’s losing. Instead they’re confident and working hard.
They can only steal an election if it’s close...so get to work and make sure it ain’t close. Given what we’re seeing in Ohio, I don’t think it will be.
You pushed the caricature a little too far with the passports bit. One of these days the viking kitties are going to have their way with you.