Skip to comments.Why the Obama Campaign Is (Still) So Confident About Beating Romney
Posted on 10/25/2012 8:50:11 PM PDT by Kenny
47% is probably the most famous number to come out of the 2012 presidential campaign. Thats the percentage of Americans Mitt Romney suggested he was writing off when captured on that famous secretly recorded video during a Florida fundraiser.
But 47% also represents the critical dividing line between how the Romney and Obama campaigns gauge the Presidents chances of re-election, viewed through the prisms of their closely guarded internal polling data. In general, the Republicans see a ceiling of around 47% for Obamas share of the vote in most of the nine battleground states that will decide this contest. The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.
Both campaigns employ top-flight pollsters who are paid to scientifically take the pulse of the electorate in the battleground states and deliver to the candidate and his strategists an unvarnished view of the state of the race at any given moment. It doesnt well serve either the incumbent or the challenger to sugarcoat the situation by producing poll results that overstate support (as some pollsters are famous for doing). The key differential between the Chicago and Boston methodologies appears to be assumptions about the final makeup of the electorate in the nine battleground contests.
If the Presidents internal data is correct, he is indeed likely to win, pushing off a floor above 47%; using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day; and taking a significant share of the small remaining undecided vote. These numbers apply to Chicagos data from the battleground states, where the Presidents support in his campaigns internal research has consistently outperformed his national poll standing.
(Excerpt) Read more at thepage.time.com ...
In other words, voter fraud.
On June 30, 2011, Halperin was suspended from his duties at MSNBC for “slurring” President Barack Obama on the program Morning Joe, saying the President came off as “kind of a dick” during the previous day’s press conference. His suspension was lifted a little over a month later.
In December 2011, Halperin was listed as #1 in Salon.com’s 2011 Hack List, his reporting described as “shallow and predictable” as well as “both fixated solely on the horse race and also uniquely bad at analyzing the horse race.” 
If we can’t win this election its over.
I find it strange that all the polls have him at 47%. I think it’s code to the faithful not to worry, the fix is in.
What are they going to say? That they’re dead in the water two weeks out from the election?
Most Dems are putting on a happy face, and busy secretly forwarding resumes for January.
Except that, data from early and absentee voting in the swing states shows him badly underperforming his 2008 results and the GOP significantly improving on McCain's 2008 numbers; in Ohio, or example, Obama is behind 120,000 votes from his tally at this point in 2008.
All polling shows Obama losing the Independent vote by huge margins, and he will swamped by the in-person vote on Election Day.
In other words, this piece of drivel was fed to that toady Halperin to keep the Libs from jumping off the ledge.
Democrat precincts get out 110% of the vote in many of our nations Black inner cities. They also have a great “ground game,” getting the dead out to vote.
To have honest elections, we will need to go back to voting only on election day and having the voter put a finger in indelible purple ink should be mandatory. Putting the military in areas where voter fraud is rife should also be a requirement. Why should Iraq have more secure elections than the USA?
The GOP-e would be bashing Romney and distancing themselves from him if he were behind at this point.
The Obama people may just be more loyal or better bluffers, but I think they honestly believe they are going to win this thing.
I will also say that if white voters sit at home again and the minorities set another turnout record, then yes, we will lose. I also agree that if that happens, we will probably never win another Presidential election for a long, long, long time.
Lets go out and prove them wrong. The very survival of our country depends on it.
He IS “kind of a dick”! Come on Halperin, GROW A PAIR!!!
Early voting is the biggest threat to our nation and the Republican Party.
Measures beyond Voter ID and abolishing Early Voting must be taken to included US Passport required to vote, law enforcement officers at all polling stations, Criminal Background checks at all polling stations and repeal of the Voting Rights Act(s).
They slapped God in the face during the Democratic convention more than once.
I believe that this will be a serious factor that Obama will not be able to overcome.
Indeed he is. And Halperin’s your typical spoiled little brat phony “Journ O List”
txrefugee:~ “ Why should Iraq have more secure elections than the USA? “
Because George Soros isn’t responsible for counting the election ballots in Iraq !!
But he did buy into the company that counts the U.S election ballots !
What do you think all the ammmo that the U.S Govt. has recently purchased ( Hollow point bullets ) is for ??
Target practice ??
Heck no !! You use either ball ammo. or wad-cutters for targets.
Now,.. use your brain ....
I don’t think bambi is acting confident at all, he is acting like a loser, making idiotic statements and focusing on binders, bayonets, and big bird. His campaign is a frikken mess and getting worse. There will be vote fraud, but not enough to overcome the tidal wave that is coming.
Its over for the child president.
If you can point me to a source for that, I'll sleep better tonight ... :)
Actually, we want you to stay awake and worry!
From Huff Post
Mark was on a Greta panel tonite saying the same things. The panel was laughing at him, but he was serious.
I think I can sleep better now :)