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Here's The Hot Recession Warning Chart That Everyone Is Passing Around
TBI ^ | 10-26-2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 10/26/2012 3:57:25 AM PDT by blam

Here's The Hot Recession Warning Chart That Everyone Is Passing Around

Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 26, 2012, 4:13 AM

A few weeks ago, we mentioned that Gluskin-Sheff economist David Rosenberg was worried about the sharp downturn in the year-over-year growth rate of the 3-month average of core CAPEX (capital expenditure) orders.

His interpretation: The fiscal cliff is already creating a lot of uncertainty, and could be pushing the US economy closer to recession.

Now everybody is talking about this fact and this chart.

In his latest note out, BTIG's Dan Greenhaus updates Rosenberg's chart with the latest data. It's still not pretty (though it actually ticked up a tad with the latest reading.

Greenhaus writes:

But the aforementioned decline in capital goods orders speaks to the larger concern for investors; the fact that a potential economic slowdown does not begin after the fiscal cliff is triggered but rather, as we’ve been saying for months, before. And if this isn’t resolved, it might be too late before long.

In addition to Greenhaus, we see via Cullen Roche that Moody's has put out roughly the same chart as a warning:

Everyone is watching this measure, and wants to know: Is this just pre-fiscal cliff jitters that will snap back next year, or is this the start of something bad?

Either way: You've been warned.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; fiscalcliff; recession; recovery

1 posted on 10/26/2012 3:57:32 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
It' Always Something. (IAS)

U.S. Dollar Hyperinflation by 2014 Says John Williams

2 posted on 10/26/2012 4:01:01 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Why The Stock Market Is Diving Today

Joe Weisenthal
October 26,2012

From Nomura, here's the general thinking about why markets are diving this morning everywhere:

It seems that the negative sentiment was sparked by news that IMF requires further austerity measures in Portugal, weaker earnings including Apple and Amazon and the S&P downgrade of France’s biggest banks. The agency cut three institutions – including BNP Paribas (from AA- to A+) - and lowered its outlook on 12 others, including Credit Agricole and Societe Generale citing increased economic risks.
Note that S&P also cut its French GDP forecasts to close to zero in 2013-14 and revised its economic risk score on the sovereign from 2 to 3. This is similar to Nomura’s house view.

3 posted on 10/26/2012 4:11:46 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Fools and idiots... “START OF SOMETHING BAD”? Hey libtards... try living in the business world for the last 6 years... cretins!!! We are now and have been in a depression... take away the wasted and borrowed chicom dollars that have been thrown away on keynesian nightmares and we would know it in undeniable terms... and this pushing out the pain until later will make the crash much harder and more destructive. DEPRESSION!!! You have been living in one so wake up!

LLS

4 posted on 10/26/2012 4:20:46 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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