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What States Will Obama Win? (Second in a Series)
Pajamas media ^ | 10/26/2012 | Roger Kimball

Posted on 10/26/2012 7:53:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The day before the last presidential debate, I speculated here on what states Obama would win. That final debate did not change much: Romney solidified his new status as frontrunner and has continued his momentum. He succeeded in presenting himself as what he in fact is: a plausible, competent candidate, and one, moreover, who has that presidential aura, that indefinable but essential nimbus of authority. Obama, for his part, gave his petulance free rein. As many commentators noted, he seemed more like the challenger than the incumbent: scrappy, impatient, full of bile and vitriol. Unfortunately, for him, Romney got to summarize the major take-away from that debate: “Attacking me is not an agenda.” With all that in mind, I present my updated list of states I think Obama will win:

  1. Hawaii (4)
  2. Washington (12)
  3. Oregon (7)
  4. California (55)
  5. New Mexico (5)
  6. Illinois (20)
  7. Minnesota (10)
  8. New York (29)
  9. Washington, DC (3)
  10. Maryland (10)
  11. Delaware (3)
  12. New Jersey (14)
  13. Connecticut (7)
  14. Rhode Island (4)
  15. Massachusetts (11)
  16. Vermont (3)
  17. Maine (4)

So: I am now thinking that Obama will win two fewer states than I thought before the debate: Iowa and Michigan, I suspect, will migrate to the red team.. Right now, I predict he will get sixteen states and the enfranchised dependent sinkhole that is Washington, D.C., for a grand total of 201 electoral votes, leaving Mitt Romney with 35 states and 337 electoral votes.

As I noted before, there are obviously variations on this scenario. Most that I ponder have Romney winning, and winning comfortably. Maybe Obama will pick up a couple of states I have put on the Romney side of the roster. It won’t matter because Obama will not pick up enough to give him the needed 69 electoral votes. As Karl Rove notes in his Wall Street Journal column today, “An incumbent president’s final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger’s way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term.”

Read part one here.

TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; electoralcollege; obama

1 posted on 10/26/2012 7:53:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Time to unelect Obama.

Hope this tally is right.

2 posted on 10/26/2012 7:57:57 AM PDT by ptsal (E)
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To: SeekAndFind

I agree with this list but in some Blue States Obama’s support is very soft and this is going to pull down his popular vote numbers. I think he may get 42% and on the extreme end if things get really bad, 39%. There could be even be a few upsets on this list and even O cannot take his support in them for granted.

3 posted on 10/26/2012 8:00:39 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ptsal

Neutered Gingrich had the electoral over 300 for Romney last night

4 posted on 10/26/2012 8:01:22 AM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: SeekAndFind
You forgot one:

18. Denial (0)

5 posted on 10/26/2012 8:05:47 AM PDT by Flycatcher (God speaks to us, through the supernal lightness of birds, in a special type of poetry.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Remember in Obama’s mind there are 57 states! He has 7 more states to win than Romney!

6 posted on 10/26/2012 8:11:52 AM PDT by 2nd Amendment (Vote Obama for national suicide)
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To: goldstategop
I agreed about the upsets for Obozo.....

The way I see it, it will all depend on how long the MSM can hold off calling the states on the eastern side of the country to get the western side to stand in line and continue casting their votes for Obozo.........and whether or not FOX is willing to beat the other MSM to the punch and call states screw up their plans.

My prediction is that Ohio is going to be the firewall for Obozo....if he loses it the western voters are going to go home early.

7 posted on 10/26/2012 8:14:50 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: thingumbob

Washington and Oregon are ALL Mail IN Voting now....

8 posted on 10/26/2012 8:20:43 AM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama will lose Illinois, Minnesota & Maine. He can possibly lose Washington, Oregon & New Mexico, if the vote from the east coast and middle America states is heavily in favor of Romney/Ryan!!! Obama/Biden, IMHO will carry between eight & twelve states at the most!!! Folks, get your butts in gear and get out there and vote for Romney/Ryan!!! ABO=Anybody-But-Obama!!!

9 posted on 10/26/2012 8:27:37 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve been optimistic and think he will only win Illinois.

10 posted on 10/26/2012 8:41:09 AM PDT by MomwithHope (Buy and read Ameritopia by Mark Levin!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I just looked up the 1988 results between Bush I and Dukakis.
426:111 with 53.4 to 45:8 in votes. Bush I got CA and IL then.

We probably won’t get to those levels. I’m hoping for 359:178 or better. Likely targets: NM, WA, CN, NJ.

11 posted on 10/26/2012 8:52:15 AM PDT by cicero2k
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