Gallup Daily: R:51 O:46

Gallup ^ | 10/26/2012 | Gallup

[SoftwareEngineer]

Likely Voters

Romney 51% +1 Obama 46% -1 7-day rolling average

[nhwingut]

Gallup does not use a model. They poll (a huge sample), and that is what they go with. They don’t weight.

What they are seeing is what they released today re: electorate makeup.

[taildragger]

Max O will get is 45% on November 6th.

If Bengazi gets worse for them and the Weather on the East Coast, does he languish @ 42%? That is my Million Dollar question. Again if Bengazi breaks open I think it will hurt them bigtime...

[surrey]

Exactly who is this guy and why should we listen to him?

[Raycpa]

His bias ruins the soup. ......In a nutshell: it’s garbage in - garbage out. So much talent, so few brains.

He could have had such a bright future in climate science field.

[malos]

OK, Might have to start Friday happy hour early.

[taildragger]

This is what election day is going to look like:

Will they let you Vote with a CFA shirt on? LOL!!!!

Yes many here saw it as a pre-cursor to 11/6, including me, they have no idea what is about to hit them politically.......

[apillar]

I would love for Romney to beat Obama in a landslide on election day if for no other reason than to thoroughly discredit that limp wristed liberal Nate Silver. His predictions are the only spark of hope the left has to cling to and any poll I post on message board, I am immediately inundated by liberals with “Nate Silver” this and “Nate Silver” that. They seem to have defied him as the demigod of polling.

[GOPJ]

WE can win this if dems know we'll prosecute and jail those who commit voter fraud.

[InterceptPoint]

You shouldn’t listen to him. He’s a shill.for the Dems. Talented but just wrong.

[rurgan]

Looking good! I’m starting to believe that we in this time will save freedom and America by stopping this Muslim ,communist dictator called Obama and by electing Romney. Don’t let up , vote, tweet,post, call, it’s up to us to save individual liberty. This is America’s and freedom’s last stand.

[IsaacDian]

YES!

I knew the narrowing to 3 was only a temporary blip. Obama probably had one “good” polling day and Romney one bad. Now it’s starting to climb back where it belongs.

[TheOldLady]

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[IsaacDian]

Omg the approval/disapproval is even better new than the LV!

Yesterday there was a -2 drop in approval and +2 in disapproval and now we went from R+3 to R+5.

Today there is a -3 in approval and +3 in disapproval!! That’s a 6 point swing in ONE day! That’s HUGE! He was +11 in Gallup approval a few days ago, and now he is at 48/47

[Steven W.]

An interesting thing about that table - McCain was *NOT* the actual incumbent himself - when you see the LOSER with numbers 4x (45,46,47,48 in ALL polls) - and that candidate (Obama) is the INCUMBENT - that’s an added whammy when contrasting the 2008 vs. 2012 races :)

[Logical me]

We need to get this up around R 54 D 43 and I would feel much better.

[rwfromkansas]

Gallup does not use those weightings for polls.

[SoFloFreeper]

And with Gallup projecting a R+1 advantage for 2012, O will be crushed in a blowout.

Where do you see that? I saw they thought the electorate would be just like 2008.

[okie01]

"And with Gallup projecting a R+1 advantage for 2012, O will be crushed in a blowout."

Where do you see that? I saw they thought the electorate would be just like 2008.

The headline was misleading. Gallup was saying that the electorate would be just like 2008 -- demographically.

But, in terms of party ID, they were projecting turnout of 35D/36R/29I. More like 2004...only better.

Blowout.

[nhwingut]

I saw they thought the electorate would be just like 2008.

The Gallup story mislead their findings. The electorate is similar (i.e. post grads, minorities, etc). But the party leanings have changed dramatically.

From D39/R29 (D+10) (2008) to D35/R36 (R+1) (2012).

From Dem/Lean Dem 54 Repub/Lean Repub 42 (D+12)(2008)

To Dem/Lean Dem 46 Repub/Lean Repub 49 (R+3)(2012)

Huge!

[Mike Darancette]

Don’t get over confident, let’s drive Obama’s numbers down more and get a mandate.

The defeat of a sitting President by any margin IS a mandate.