Well, let's check the #s: Adrian Gray has Rs leading early voting by .01 with 250,000 cast x 16 (5m less 1 m early votes=4m) or a lead of 1.6%. But you have to subtract something like 70-85,000 absentee advantage Ds had . So that leaves us about 45000 short. However, these are ONLY early voting stats ( which Rs lost huge in 08). If you figure Rs have a propensity to turn out on Election Day, then add 46,000 votes for every 1% advantage Rs have on Nov. 6. And then if Romney has ANY indies, they would pad the lead even more.
In short, Rs need a slight turnout advantage on Election Day itself to win (McCain got that, so I don't think that will be hard.) just a tiny percent advantage with Indies will get you to 52%.