Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: SAT 10/27: R:50 O:46 Obama -10%
Posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days. See daily tracking history.
(Excerpt) Read more at m.rasmussenreports.com ...
Overall Presidential approval number is down to 47
However, oddly, the Approval Index is back up to -10%
I think this reflects hardening of the vote
The Governor is also 23 (yes, 23!) up with independents.
However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women (he is 18 up with men)
NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will not be available at the link above
Obama must react-Next on Pimp with a Limp!
Romney back up to a 4 point lead. Obama approval actually down to 47/52 (-5). The strong index is only -10 but only because his strong approval went up to 33 (its average has been about 28-29). The strong disapproval went up to 43 that is not good for an incumbent. I think this is due to a closing of the election and firming up of Obama’s base.
Other stats: Romney is actually up 51-46 with leaners but math wise it rounds down to 50 (50.47).
Also Romney up 23 now with Indies. That is big. Other (Hispanics, Asians) in the Right Track/Wrong Track category is at -20.
Finally, I did the math and Rasmussen is using a D+3 model.
There were rumors he changed suddenly to a D+6. Not true.
Heres my math based on the 39/36/25 model Rasmussen has published in recent weekly surveys.
The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussens crosstabs of each candidates support.
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
Wouldn’t be concerned with the day by day numbers as far as the internals and even the headline number.
On the Rass site he says the best way to view the polling is on a weekly basis rather than daily because the trend is seen when the view is expanded and a much more accurate picture can be seen.
Turnout is the key..
Here is the link to the image..
A sneak peek into the Swing State numbers today from Rasmussen
The Governor is up by 6!
Overall approval number is down to 48
The Approval Index is back down to -15%
The Governor is also up 15 with independents.
He is 5 behind with women but he is 17 up with men
I noticed this after the first debate, the approval rating has become decoupled from the voter support figures; that seems to indicate that, for some people, nothing Obama can do will change their vote.
The fact that Obama lost a point since yesterday’s poll is significant. This point shaved off is added distress over the Benghazi scandal. Fox News and talk radio are covering this deadly disaster and hitting the conscience of some democrat voters (I think largely retirees) who can’t take any more of this President’s disgraceful performance.
At this stage, a point loss for Obama is extremely bad and likely fatal as we move into the last week of the campaign. Watch the dominoes fall in PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and yes, OH. Also keep an eye on MN, NV, OR.
This race is getting close to shutting Obama out fast and people finally deciding, looks like its shifting fast.
DU must be going into meltdown.
Seeing all of these polls, it’s looking like 0bama is going to have a hard ceiling of 47%. Looking like a Romney win by 52/47(the other 1% going to misc 3rd parties), if nothing changes.
Romney campaign launched expand the map.com today. Looking for $7 million to hit extra states. My guess is a carpet bomb of ads in PA and MI final week. I think OH comes through but doesnt hurt having a 3rd backup plan being either PA or MI!
Only a phony unemployment number at the end of next week stands in our way to jubilation.
...I guess the binders, big bird, first time sex ads along with the BullSh***er is working for the evil black turd! Incredible! So it ain't far fetched the female species really DOES take after Eve's DNA....bunch of stupid idiots!
The third surprise may be Oregon.
The gender gap is huge (27 points!) if this hold to election day, I belive it will be the biggest in history. I think Obama probably got some traction from the Mourdock deal, but what's he gained from women he's lost far more with men (I'm guessing because of the Benghazi situation). Women tend to vote more than men, but not a whole lot more, 48/52 (3-4 points or so). So wining by 18 points with men more than makes up for losing by 9 points with women.
As for independents, I just don't see any path Obama can win by if he loses independents by 23 point.