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Rasmussen Daily: SAT 10/27: R:50 O:46 Obama -10%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/27/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days. See daily tracking history.

(Excerpt) Read more at m.rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; rasmussen; romney
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The Governor is back up by 4! So, he is at his all time high again with the Rasmussen poll

R:50 O:46

Overall Presidential approval number is down to 47

However, oddly, the Approval Index is back up to -10%

I think this reflects hardening of the vote

The Governor is also 23 (yes, 23!) up with independents.

However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women (he is 18 up with men)

NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will not be available at the link above

1 posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:15 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Obama must react-Next on Pimp with a Limp!


2 posted on 10/27/2012 6:35:42 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Romney back up to a 4 point lead. Obama approval actually down to 47/52 (-5). The strong index is only -10 but only because his strong approval went up to 33 (it’s average has been about 28-29). The strong disapproval went up to 43 – that is not good for an incumbent. I think this is due to a closing of the election and firming up of Obama’s base.

Other stats: Romney is actually up 51-46 with leaners but math wise it rounds down to 50 (50.47).

Also Romney up 23 now with Indies. That is big. “Other” (Hispanics, Asians) in the Right Track/Wrong Track category is at -20.

Finally, I did the math and Rasmussen is using a D+3 model.

There were rumors he changed suddenly to a D+6. Not true.

Here’s my math based on the 39/36/25 model Rasmussen has published in recent weekly surveys.

The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussen’s crosstabs of each candidate’s support.

Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)

Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)


3 posted on 10/27/2012 6:35:50 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Wouldn’t be concerned with the day by day numbers as far as the internals and even the headline number.

On the Rass site he says the best way to view the polling is on a weekly basis rather than daily because the trend is seen when the view is expanded and a much more accurate picture can be seen.


4 posted on 10/27/2012 6:37:06 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: LS; Perdogg; Ravi; tatown; nhwingut; jrg; SoFloFreeper; HamiltonJay; ConservativeGuy
Some on the ground data from our colleague LS, who is very much in tune with OH GOTV effort

He mailed me the following:
They had 27 Greyhounds to bus people over to election HQ to vote after President Obama came here. After the third bus arrived, empty, they quit. They had three floors set aside to register people. As you see . . . . LS

Ohio Polling Place
5 posted on 10/27/2012 6:37:36 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: nhwingut

Turnout is the key..


6 posted on 10/27/2012 6:38:32 AM PDT by Doofer (Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Here is the link to the image..

http://postimage.org/image/ciamn6csp/


7 posted on 10/27/2012 6:40:05 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

A sneak peek into the Swing State numbers today from Rasmussen

The Governor is up by 6!

R:51 O:45

Overall approval number is down to 48

The Approval Index is back down to -15%

The Governor is also up 15 with independents.

He is 5 behind with women but he is 17 up with men


8 posted on 10/27/2012 6:42:27 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I noticed this after the first debate, the approval rating has become decoupled from the voter support figures; that seems to indicate that, for some people, nothing Obama can do will change their vote.


9 posted on 10/27/2012 6:43:43 AM PDT by ClaudiusI
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To: SoftwareEngineer
I found this comment interesting over at AceHQ last night from a Romney volunteer...

I have to tell you: not only are we not losing Ohio, we're going to win Wisconsin as well. And from people who are on the ground and inside the Romney campaign, I can tell you there are two states out there that are potentially set to shock the sh*t out of liberals and the MSM come November 6th. In a good way -- for us.

Me? I'm spending the day tomorrow in Newport News, VA, knocking on doors and making phone calls (and that's a b*tch of a commute for a guy who lives in the MD suburbs). I highly recommend that everyone else go and do the same thing.

But I will say this: Romney's internals right now? I have it on reasonably good authority that they are actually far better in states like OH, VA, FL, and certain other mystery states that I shall not mention than everyone out here realizes. There is a bit of "well this can't QUITE be correct, can it?" attitude among people, but the numbers are returning consistently and in the same direction.

Let me put it this way: IA, NH, WI: toss a coin, these could go either way.

OH? Mitt will win, and the call will be made on election night, not after five recounts or any sort of thing like that. It most certainly didn't look that way as recently as a month ago. But it does now. My final call? 52-48 Romney over Obama.

10 posted on 10/27/2012 6:47:12 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The fact that Obama lost a point since yesterday’s poll is significant. This point shaved off is added distress over the Benghazi scandal. Fox News and talk radio are covering this deadly disaster and hitting the conscience of some democrat voters (I think largely retirees) who can’t take any more of this President’s disgraceful performance.

At this stage, a point loss for Obama is extremely bad and likely fatal as we move into the last week of the campaign. Watch the dominoes fall in PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and yes, OH. Also keep an eye on MN, NV, OR.


11 posted on 10/27/2012 6:47:45 AM PDT by untwist
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This race is getting close to shutting Obama out fast and people finally deciding, looks like its shifting fast.

DU must be going into meltdown.


12 posted on 10/27/2012 6:49:29 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars
DU must be going into meltdown.

The left reminds me of us in 2008, hanging onto crap polls like Zogby, ignoring Rasmussen and Gallup, and holding out hope for a national vote loss and EV win. That is a sign of a sure loser.
13 posted on 10/27/2012 6:52:28 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Seeing all of these polls, it’s looking like 0bama is going to have a hard ceiling of 47%. Looking like a Romney win by 52/47(the other 1% going to misc 3rd parties), if nothing changes.


14 posted on 10/27/2012 6:53:53 AM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: nhwingut

Romney campaign launched expand the map.com today. Looking for $7 million to hit extra states. My guess is a carpet bomb of ads in PA and MI final week. I think OH comes through but doesnt hurt having a 3rd backup plan being either PA or MI!


15 posted on 10/27/2012 6:55:32 AM PDT by joltman1974
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To: nhwingut
I'm really curious to know what those two "surprising states" are. My two top guesses are Pennsylvania and Michigan, and a third outlandish possibility that might not be so outlandish: New Jersey.
16 posted on 10/27/2012 6:55:39 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: ClaudiusI

Only a phony unemployment number at the end of next week stands in our way to jubilation.


17 posted on 10/27/2012 6:57:23 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: SoftwareEngineer
"However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women"

...I guess the binders, big bird, first time sex ads along with the BullSh***er is working for the evil black turd! Incredible! So it ain't far fetched the female species really DOES take after Eve's DNA....bunch of stupid idiots!

18 posted on 10/27/2012 6:58:14 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Alberta's Child

The third surprise may be Oregon.


19 posted on 10/27/2012 6:58:18 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
It's funny Romney seem to have settled into at 50/51 in Gallup and Rassmussen, but the increasing gap seems to be from Obama losing support that is moving into the undecided category. 46% is a an awful number for a sitting president.

The gender gap is huge (27 points!) if this hold to election day, I belive it will be the biggest in history. I think Obama probably got some traction from the Mourdock deal, but what's he gained from women he's lost far more with men (I'm guessing because of the Benghazi situation). Women tend to vote more than men, but not a whole lot more, 48/52 (3-4 points or so). So wining by 18 points with men more than makes up for losing by 9 points with women.

As for independents, I just don't see any path Obama can win by if he loses independents by 23 point.

20 posted on 10/27/2012 6:59:00 AM PDT by apillar
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To: SoftwareEngineer
...another two percent (2%) are undecided

Will they still be undecided standing in the voting booth? Or will they (hopefully) be undecided all day at home, staring at the car keys? "Gosh, should I pick the keys up, or should I have a bowl of Cheerios? Or maybe I should sit in this chair...I'm so undecided!"

21 posted on 10/27/2012 7:05:48 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: RoseofTexas
"However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women"

But Romney is now up with men by 19, 57/38, holding a +10 on gender gap. Obama won gender gap in 2008 by 6 - and won election by 7. So this is a 16 point swing.
22 posted on 10/27/2012 7:09:15 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nhwingut
Obama

Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54

Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6

Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75

Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)

I love the idea that 1 out of 10 Republicans would vote for Obama.

23 posted on 10/27/2012 7:11:23 AM PDT by StandAndDeliver1
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To: nhwingut

They aren’t at all going in a meltdown. Nate Silver increased Obama’s chances of winning to more than 75 percent. They think the race is completely over.


24 posted on 10/27/2012 7:14:23 AM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: SoftwareEngineer
They had three floors set aside to register people.

But they did a great job waxing that floor.

25 posted on 10/27/2012 7:14:59 AM PDT by StandAndDeliver1
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To: SoftwareEngineer
A sneak peek into the Swing State numbers today from Rasmussen - The Governor is up by 6! - R:51 O:45

Has anyone figured out how to reconcile this huge Swing State lead for Romney (that includes IA, MI, NV, OH, PA and WI, states that are supposedly leaning O or are tied) with the available polls for all 11 Raz Swing States?

Just for reference, the Raz Swing States are: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI.

'Tis a mystery still. It is simply not believable that R could be piling up the huge leads in CO, FL, NH, NC and VA that would be necessary to generate a 6% advantage over O. Something is amiss.

26 posted on 10/27/2012 7:15:23 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: cdga5for4

That’s what I said. They are holding out hope for a EV win amidst a national vote loss.

Silver increased it to 74.89897 (decimal points added to sound scientific) or something ridiculous last night. Based on quote “tipping-point” polls from Ohio. LOL!

More than anyone, I will relish rubbing it in Silver’s face for weeks.


27 posted on 10/27/2012 7:18:28 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: sunmars

No meltdown at all over at DU. Just numerous ‘good poll’ posts...they’ll take any poll, as long as it shows O in the lead. A mention of Rasmussen will likely get you banned, since its witchcraft (the reality of his past accuracy escapes them).


28 posted on 10/27/2012 7:21:26 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: InterceptPoint

I wonder what would happen if NC was taken off that list?


29 posted on 10/27/2012 7:21:40 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: wolfman23601
I wonder what would happen if NC was taken off that list?

I think Obama would close to a tie. But then you could say same thing about PA where Obama holds a 5-6 point lead. I think they wash each other out (both are lean states, not toss ups).
30 posted on 10/27/2012 7:24:19 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: InterceptPoint

I wonder if Ras is using a different party breakdown for individual states. Does anybody know?


31 posted on 10/27/2012 7:27:13 AM PDT by Iowegian
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To: Iowegian
I wonder if Ras is using a different party breakdown for individual states. Does anybody know?

Each state has it's own party id sample. Virginia is a R+1, PA is a D+6, etc.
32 posted on 10/27/2012 7:31:01 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: cdga5for4

I couldn’t help myself and took a sneak peak at DU. They are ecstatic about the polls they are following. No mention of Rasmussen or Gallup.


33 posted on 10/27/2012 7:31:58 AM PDT by CTGOPPER (Conservative in Connecticut. Really.)
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To: nhwingut

Does Silver actually believe what he is publishing? If so, I’ve never seen an election where each side is so sure of winning...


34 posted on 10/27/2012 7:32:25 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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35 posted on 10/27/2012 7:35:34 AM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I interpret this to mean the Demon rats FAILED to get anywhere near the number of registered voters they were hoping for?


36 posted on 10/27/2012 7:35:44 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: cdga5for4
Nate Silver increased Obama’s chances of winning to more than 75 percent.

I skimmed Silver's explanation in yesterday's realclearpolitics.com; it was 100% convoluted statistical analysis.

Anybody with the truth on their side doesn't have to resort to that.

37 posted on 10/27/2012 7:36:10 AM PDT by StandAndDeliver1
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To: nhwingut

Thanks, that’s what I thought. And it may be why there is a difference.


38 posted on 10/27/2012 7:37:27 AM PDT by Iowegian
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To: nhwingut

If Silver wants to save his reputation and future income prospects, he will need to fix his model or trash it completely by the end of next week. He has to be a little curious as to how Romney can be leading by 4 to 5 points nationally in Gallup and Rasmussen but is somehow losing the electoral vote according to his model.

His last post yesterday concluded with “...we may be approaching the point where the state polls will have to be systematically biased toward Mr. Obama in order for Mr. Romney to have strong chances of prevailing on Election Day”.

So maybe he is starting to wake up but may be worried at the same time that his worshippers have too much invested in him.


39 posted on 10/27/2012 7:42:06 AM PDT by TomT in NJ
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To: nhwingut
The left reminds me of us in 2008, hanging onto crap polls like Zogby, ignoring Rasmussen and Gallup, and holding out hope for a national vote loss and EV win. That is a sign of a sure loser.

To paraphrase Tolstoy: All happy campaigns resemble one another, each unhappy campaign is unhappy in its own way.

DU has chosen the predictably Stalinist approach. Anyone who dares point out that the rails are coming off the Obama train is deemed guilty of thought crime. Then a "jury" convenes and comes out with a decision to remove the non-sufficiently optimistic post. It is creepy.

40 posted on 10/27/2012 7:43:38 AM PDT by hcmama
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To: SoftwareEngineer

From the internals, it looks like support for Romney by independents is flying off the charts. And this poll is still only +4? Ras must be adding special sauce.


41 posted on 10/27/2012 7:44:48 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: tatown

Silver is Baghdad Nate at this point. He put himself so far out on the ledge in September that he cannot afford to comeback now. Although, he did have a chance to pullback after the first debate when there was a clear momentum shift, but he refused, so now he’s stuck.

I did my thesis on Garbage In Garbage Out modeling, and how it is accepted by the general public, i.e. since it is processed/produced by a “smart” computer, people believe the BS.

You can basically create any result you want if you input the requisite numbers - and still look like you know what you are talking about. His sabermetrics modeling is laughable relative to politics.


42 posted on 10/27/2012 7:50:53 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: cdga5for4

So seriously, who is delusional then? Us or them?


43 posted on 10/27/2012 7:53:39 AM PDT by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: frogjerk

Both sides are delusional.

Them for living in their little fairyland and believing that their beloved leader is going to get re-elected. And us for paying attention to their raving lunacies.


44 posted on 10/27/2012 7:58:37 AM PDT by TomT in NJ
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To: nhwingut
He put himself so far out on the ledge in September that he cannot afford to comeback now.

He has a great future in Climate Scientology.

45 posted on 10/27/2012 7:59:55 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: nhwingut
DU is NOT in denial.
They really do believe 0 has this in the bag by a sizable margin.

It's difficult to even explain their warped perception of this election (which actually explains a lot about their view of the real world)

So, in a sickly entertaining way, it's worth a visit if you want to see what they're thinking.

Its laughable. My favorite thing is the complete dismissal of legit poll numbers (that don't show 0 winning) while they cling to the most extreme poll numbers from no name pollsters. They are pinning all their hopes on the realclearpolitics and Nate Silver polls.

They seriously deny reality: One thread on there today says with complete certainty that RomneyRyan is pulling out of “Ohoi” by this Tuesday. All it takes is a 30 second visit to the Romney website where it list the upcoming weeks events.

Election night should be very entertaining.

46 posted on 10/27/2012 8:02:01 AM PDT by sillsfan (Reagan and Sarah are right- WE win, they lose!)
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To: frogjerk
So seriously, who is delusional then? Us or them?

If you are down 4-5 points in the only two independent (non-media) daily trackers with a week to go, and you claim there is a 75% chance you are still going to win - um, I would say you are delusional?

And if our side, in 2008 (when we were down 5 in Gallup and Ras), was claiming a 75% chance of a win, I'd say the same thing. Get out the white coats.
47 posted on 10/27/2012 8:02:19 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
However, oddly, the Approval Index is back up to -10%

Shouldn't we expect this number to decrease as we get closer to election day? I mean, when you're ready to go ACTUALLY VOTE for somebody, wouldn't you be more likely to say you "Strongly Support" them?

Did Ras track this kind of number in 2004?

48 posted on 10/27/2012 8:11:25 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: InterceptPoint; SoftwareEngineer

>> Has anyone figured out how to reconcile this huge Swing State lead for Romney <<

Sure. Just plug in some extremely high lead numbers for the five states that seem to lean toward Romney (CO, FL, VA, NH & NC), and some much closer nummbers for the other six states.

For example, let’s assume that a unweighted average for the five R-leaning states gives a R advantage of 58-to-42. Then assume that the six other states give Ø an unweighted average advantage of 51-to-49. The result is an R advantage of almost exactly six points.

[Arithmetic Note: You don’t even need Excel to run the numbers! Just compute (5*58+6*49)/11 and then compare with (5*42+6*31)/11. Rounded to one decimal place, the grand average lead for Romney is 6.2%.]

Now if you don’t like the simplifying assumptions above, you could try many variations to produce similar outcomes. You could weight the state-by-state numbers by state populations, by state electoral votes and/or by state vote turnouts in 2008 or 2010. Then if the lead for Romney is too high or too low relative to six percent, you could fiddle with different state percentages until you generate a grand average lead where the mean comes in right at Rasmussen’s number. All in a day’s work!


49 posted on 10/27/2012 8:12:16 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: sillsfan

Just checked my DU login. Still works after all these years!

Can’t wait for Election night!


50 posted on 10/27/2012 8:21:05 AM PDT by o2bfree (All us minorities got us an Obamaphone!!!)
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