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Rasmussen Daily: SAT 10/27: R:50 O:46 Obama -10%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/27/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days. See daily tracking history.

(Excerpt) Read more at m.rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; rasmussen; romney
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The Governor is back up by 4! So, he is at his all time high again with the Rasmussen poll

R:50 O:46

Overall Presidential approval number is down to 47

However, oddly, the Approval Index is back up to -10%

I think this reflects hardening of the vote

The Governor is also 23 (yes, 23!) up with independents.

However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women (he is 18 up with men)

NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will not be available at the link above

1 posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:15 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Obama must react-Next on Pimp with a Limp!


2 posted on 10/27/2012 6:35:42 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Romney back up to a 4 point lead. Obama approval actually down to 47/52 (-5). The strong index is only -10 but only because his strong approval went up to 33 (it’s average has been about 28-29). The strong disapproval went up to 43 – that is not good for an incumbent. I think this is due to a closing of the election and firming up of Obama’s base.

Other stats: Romney is actually up 51-46 with leaners but math wise it rounds down to 50 (50.47).

Also Romney up 23 now with Indies. That is big. “Other” (Hispanics, Asians) in the Right Track/Wrong Track category is at -20.

Finally, I did the math and Rasmussen is using a D+3 model.

There were rumors he changed suddenly to a D+6. Not true.

Here’s my math based on the 39/36/25 model Rasmussen has published in recent weekly surveys.

The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussen’s crosstabs of each candidate’s support.

Romney
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)

Obama
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)


3 posted on 10/27/2012 6:35:50 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Wouldn’t be concerned with the day by day numbers as far as the internals and even the headline number.

On the Rass site he says the best way to view the polling is on a weekly basis rather than daily because the trend is seen when the view is expanded and a much more accurate picture can be seen.


4 posted on 10/27/2012 6:37:06 AM PDT by Lacey2
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To: LS; Perdogg; Ravi; tatown; nhwingut; jrg; SoFloFreeper; HamiltonJay; ConservativeGuy
Some on the ground data from our colleague LS, who is very much in tune with OH GOTV effort

He mailed me the following:
They had 27 Greyhounds to bus people over to election HQ to vote after President Obama came here. After the third bus arrived, empty, they quit. They had three floors set aside to register people. As you see . . . . LS

Ohio Polling Place
5 posted on 10/27/2012 6:37:36 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: nhwingut

Turnout is the key..


6 posted on 10/27/2012 6:38:32 AM PDT by Doofer (Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Here is the link to the image..

http://postimage.org/image/ciamn6csp/


7 posted on 10/27/2012 6:40:05 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

A sneak peek into the Swing State numbers today from Rasmussen

The Governor is up by 6!

R:51 O:45

Overall approval number is down to 48

The Approval Index is back down to -15%

The Governor is also up 15 with independents.

He is 5 behind with women but he is 17 up with men


8 posted on 10/27/2012 6:42:27 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I noticed this after the first debate, the approval rating has become decoupled from the voter support figures; that seems to indicate that, for some people, nothing Obama can do will change their vote.


9 posted on 10/27/2012 6:43:43 AM PDT by ClaudiusI
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To: SoftwareEngineer
I found this comment interesting over at AceHQ last night from a Romney volunteer...

I have to tell you: not only are we not losing Ohio, we're going to win Wisconsin as well. And from people who are on the ground and inside the Romney campaign, I can tell you there are two states out there that are potentially set to shock the sh*t out of liberals and the MSM come November 6th. In a good way -- for us.

Me? I'm spending the day tomorrow in Newport News, VA, knocking on doors and making phone calls (and that's a b*tch of a commute for a guy who lives in the MD suburbs). I highly recommend that everyone else go and do the same thing.

But I will say this: Romney's internals right now? I have it on reasonably good authority that they are actually far better in states like OH, VA, FL, and certain other mystery states that I shall not mention than everyone out here realizes. There is a bit of "well this can't QUITE be correct, can it?" attitude among people, but the numbers are returning consistently and in the same direction.

Let me put it this way: IA, NH, WI: toss a coin, these could go either way.

OH? Mitt will win, and the call will be made on election night, not after five recounts or any sort of thing like that. It most certainly didn't look that way as recently as a month ago. But it does now. My final call? 52-48 Romney over Obama.

10 posted on 10/27/2012 6:47:12 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The fact that Obama lost a point since yesterday’s poll is significant. This point shaved off is added distress over the Benghazi scandal. Fox News and talk radio are covering this deadly disaster and hitting the conscience of some democrat voters (I think largely retirees) who can’t take any more of this President’s disgraceful performance.

At this stage, a point loss for Obama is extremely bad and likely fatal as we move into the last week of the campaign. Watch the dominoes fall in PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and yes, OH. Also keep an eye on MN, NV, OR.


11 posted on 10/27/2012 6:47:45 AM PDT by untwist
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This race is getting close to shutting Obama out fast and people finally deciding, looks like its shifting fast.

DU must be going into meltdown.


12 posted on 10/27/2012 6:49:29 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars
DU must be going into meltdown.

The left reminds me of us in 2008, hanging onto crap polls like Zogby, ignoring Rasmussen and Gallup, and holding out hope for a national vote loss and EV win. That is a sign of a sure loser.
13 posted on 10/27/2012 6:52:28 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Seeing all of these polls, it’s looking like 0bama is going to have a hard ceiling of 47%. Looking like a Romney win by 52/47(the other 1% going to misc 3rd parties), if nothing changes.


14 posted on 10/27/2012 6:53:53 AM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: nhwingut

Romney campaign launched expand the map.com today. Looking for $7 million to hit extra states. My guess is a carpet bomb of ads in PA and MI final week. I think OH comes through but doesnt hurt having a 3rd backup plan being either PA or MI!


15 posted on 10/27/2012 6:55:32 AM PDT by joltman1974
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To: nhwingut
I'm really curious to know what those two "surprising states" are. My two top guesses are Pennsylvania and Michigan, and a third outlandish possibility that might not be so outlandish: New Jersey.
16 posted on 10/27/2012 6:55:39 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: ClaudiusI

Only a phony unemployment number at the end of next week stands in our way to jubilation.


17 posted on 10/27/2012 6:57:23 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: SoftwareEngineer
"However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women"

...I guess the binders, big bird, first time sex ads along with the BullSh***er is working for the evil black turd! Incredible! So it ain't far fetched the female species really DOES take after Eve's DNA....bunch of stupid idiots!

18 posted on 10/27/2012 6:58:14 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Alberta's Child

The third surprise may be Oregon.


19 posted on 10/27/2012 6:58:18 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
It's funny Romney seem to have settled into at 50/51 in Gallup and Rassmussen, but the increasing gap seems to be from Obama losing support that is moving into the undecided category. 46% is a an awful number for a sitting president.

The gender gap is huge (27 points!) if this hold to election day, I belive it will be the biggest in history. I think Obama probably got some traction from the Mourdock deal, but what's he gained from women he's lost far more with men (I'm guessing because of the Benghazi situation). Women tend to vote more than men, but not a whole lot more, 48/52 (3-4 points or so). So wining by 18 points with men more than makes up for losing by 9 points with women.

As for independents, I just don't see any path Obama can win by if he loses independents by 23 point.

20 posted on 10/27/2012 6:59:00 AM PDT by apillar
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