Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: SAT 10/27: R:50 O:46 Obama -10%
Posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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Overall Presidential approval number is down to 47
However, oddly, the Approval Index is back up to -10%
I think this reflects hardening of the vote
The Governor is also 23 (yes, 23!) up with independents.
However, he has now fallen 9 behind with women (he is 18 up with men)
NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will not be available at the link above
Obama must react-Next on Pimp with a Limp!
Romney back up to a 4 point lead. Obama approval actually down to 47/52 (-5). The strong index is only -10 but only because his strong approval went up to 33 (its average has been about 28-29). The strong disapproval went up to 43 that is not good for an incumbent. I think this is due to a closing of the election and firming up of Obama’s base.
Other stats: Romney is actually up 51-46 with leaners but math wise it rounds down to 50 (50.47).
Also Romney up 23 now with Indies. That is big. Other (Hispanics, Asians) in the Right Track/Wrong Track category is at -20.
Finally, I did the math and Rasmussen is using a D+3 model.
There were rumors he changed suddenly to a D+6. Not true.
Heres my math based on the 39/36/25 model Rasmussen has published in recent weekly surveys.
The pctg of each party id is based on Rasmussens crosstabs of each candidates support.
Republicans 88% * .36 = 31.38
Democrats 11% * .39 = 4.29
Indies 58% * .25 = 14.50
Total = 50.47 (rounded down to 50%, but so close to 51%)
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
Wouldn’t be concerned with the day by day numbers as far as the internals and even the headline number.
On the Rass site he says the best way to view the polling is on a weekly basis rather than daily because the trend is seen when the view is expanded and a much more accurate picture can be seen.
Turnout is the key..
Here is the link to the image..
A sneak peek into the Swing State numbers today from Rasmussen
The Governor is up by 6!
Overall approval number is down to 48
The Approval Index is back down to -15%
The Governor is also up 15 with independents.
He is 5 behind with women but he is 17 up with men
I noticed this after the first debate, the approval rating has become decoupled from the voter support figures; that seems to indicate that, for some people, nothing Obama can do will change their vote.
The fact that Obama lost a point since yesterday’s poll is significant. This point shaved off is added distress over the Benghazi scandal. Fox News and talk radio are covering this deadly disaster and hitting the conscience of some democrat voters (I think largely retirees) who can’t take any more of this President’s disgraceful performance.
At this stage, a point loss for Obama is extremely bad and likely fatal as we move into the last week of the campaign. Watch the dominoes fall in PA, WI, MI, IA, CO and yes, OH. Also keep an eye on MN, NV, OR.
This race is getting close to shutting Obama out fast and people finally deciding, looks like its shifting fast.
DU must be going into meltdown.
Seeing all of these polls, it’s looking like 0bama is going to have a hard ceiling of 47%. Looking like a Romney win by 52/47(the other 1% going to misc 3rd parties), if nothing changes.
Romney campaign launched expand the map.com today. Looking for $7 million to hit extra states. My guess is a carpet bomb of ads in PA and MI final week. I think OH comes through but doesnt hurt having a 3rd backup plan being either PA or MI!
Only a phony unemployment number at the end of next week stands in our way to jubilation.
...I guess the binders, big bird, first time sex ads along with the BullSh***er is working for the evil black turd! Incredible! So it ain't far fetched the female species really DOES take after Eve's DNA....bunch of stupid idiots!
The third surprise may be Oregon.
The gender gap is huge (27 points!) if this hold to election day, I belive it will be the biggest in history. I think Obama probably got some traction from the Mourdock deal, but what's he gained from women he's lost far more with men (I'm guessing because of the Benghazi situation). Women tend to vote more than men, but not a whole lot more, 48/52 (3-4 points or so). So wining by 18 points with men more than makes up for losing by 9 points with women.
As for independents, I just don't see any path Obama can win by if he loses independents by 23 point.
Will they still be undecided standing in the voting booth? Or will they (hopefully) be undecided all day at home, staring at the car keys? "Gosh, should I pick the keys up, or should I have a bowl of Cheerios? Or maybe I should sit in this chair...I'm so undecided!"
Democrats 86% * .39 = 33.54
Republicans 10% * .36 = 3.6
Indies 35% * .25 = 8.75
Total = 45.89 (rounded up to 46%)
I love the idea that 1 out of 10 Republicans would vote for Obama.
They aren’t at all going in a meltdown. Nate Silver increased Obama’s chances of winning to more than 75 percent. They think the race is completely over.
But they did a great job waxing that floor.
Has anyone figured out how to reconcile this huge Swing State lead for Romney (that includes IA, MI, NV, OH, PA and WI, states that are supposedly leaning O or are tied) with the available polls for all 11 Raz Swing States?
Just for reference, the Raz Swing States are: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI.
'Tis a mystery still. It is simply not believable that R could be piling up the huge leads in CO, FL, NH, NC and VA that would be necessary to generate a 6% advantage over O. Something is amiss.
That’s what I said. They are holding out hope for a EV win amidst a national vote loss.
Silver increased it to 74.89897 (decimal points added to sound scientific) or something ridiculous last night. Based on quote “tipping-point” polls from Ohio. LOL!
More than anyone, I will relish rubbing it in Silver’s face for weeks.
No meltdown at all over at DU. Just numerous ‘good poll’ posts...they’ll take any poll, as long as it shows O in the lead. A mention of Rasmussen will likely get you banned, since its witchcraft (the reality of his past accuracy escapes them).
I wonder what would happen if NC was taken off that list?
I wonder if Ras is using a different party breakdown for individual states. Does anybody know?
I couldn’t help myself and took a sneak peak at DU. They are ecstatic about the polls they are following. No mention of Rasmussen or Gallup.
Does Silver actually believe what he is publishing? If so, I’ve never seen an election where each side is so sure of winning...
I interpret this to mean the Demon rats FAILED to get anywhere near the number of registered voters they were hoping for?
I skimmed Silver's explanation in yesterday's realclearpolitics.com; it was 100% convoluted statistical analysis.
Anybody with the truth on their side doesn't have to resort to that.
Thanks, that’s what I thought. And it may be why there is a difference.
If Silver wants to save his reputation and future income prospects, he will need to fix his model or trash it completely by the end of next week. He has to be a little curious as to how Romney can be leading by 4 to 5 points nationally in Gallup and Rasmussen but is somehow losing the electoral vote according to his model.
His last post yesterday concluded with “...we may be approaching the point where the state polls will have to be systematically biased toward Mr. Obama in order for Mr. Romney to have strong chances of prevailing on Election Day”.
So maybe he is starting to wake up but may be worried at the same time that his worshippers have too much invested in him.
To paraphrase Tolstoy: All happy campaigns resemble one another, each unhappy campaign is unhappy in its own way.
DU has chosen the predictably Stalinist approach. Anyone who dares point out that the rails are coming off the Obama train is deemed guilty of thought crime. Then a "jury" convenes and comes out with a decision to remove the non-sufficiently optimistic post. It is creepy.
From the internals, it looks like support for Romney by independents is flying off the charts. And this poll is still only +4? Ras must be adding special sauce.
Silver is Baghdad Nate at this point. He put himself so far out on the ledge in September that he cannot afford to comeback now. Although, he did have a chance to pullback after the first debate when there was a clear momentum shift, but he refused, so now he’s stuck.
I did my thesis on Garbage In Garbage Out modeling, and how it is accepted by the general public, i.e. since it is processed/produced by a “smart” computer, people believe the BS.
You can basically create any result you want if you input the requisite numbers - and still look like you know what you are talking about. His sabermetrics modeling is laughable relative to politics.
So seriously, who is delusional then? Us or them?
Both sides are delusional.
Them for living in their little fairyland and believing that their beloved leader is going to get re-elected. And us for paying attention to their raving lunacies.
He has a great future in Climate Scientology.
It's difficult to even explain their warped perception of this election (which actually explains a lot about their view of the real world)
So, in a sickly entertaining way, it's worth a visit if you want to see what they're thinking.
Its laughable. My favorite thing is the complete dismissal of legit poll numbers (that don't show 0 winning) while they cling to the most extreme poll numbers from no name pollsters. They are pinning all their hopes on the realclearpolitics and Nate Silver polls.
They seriously deny reality: One thread on there today says with complete certainty that RomneyRyan is pulling out of “Ohoi” by this Tuesday. All it takes is a 30 second visit to the Romney website where it list the upcoming weeks events.
Election night should be very entertaining.
Shouldn't we expect this number to decrease as we get closer to election day? I mean, when you're ready to go ACTUALLY VOTE for somebody, wouldn't you be more likely to say you "Strongly Support" them?
Did Ras track this kind of number in 2004?
>> Has anyone figured out how to reconcile this huge Swing State lead for Romney <<
Sure. Just plug in some extremely high lead numbers for the five states that seem to lean toward Romney (CO, FL, VA, NH & NC), and some much closer nummbers for the other six states.
For example, let’s assume that a unweighted average for the five R-leaning states gives a R advantage of 58-to-42. Then assume that the six other states give Ø an unweighted average advantage of 51-to-49. The result is an R advantage of almost exactly six points.
[Arithmetic Note: You don’t even need Excel to run the numbers! Just compute (5*58+6*49)/11 and then compare with (5*42+6*31)/11. Rounded to one decimal place, the grand average lead for Romney is 6.2%.]
Now if you don’t like the simplifying assumptions above, you could try many variations to produce similar outcomes. You could weight the state-by-state numbers by state populations, by state electoral votes and/or by state vote turnouts in 2008 or 2010. Then if the lead for Romney is too high or too low relative to six percent, you could fiddle with different state percentages until you generate a grand average lead where the mean comes in right at Rasmussen’s number. All in a day’s work!
Just checked my DU login. Still works after all these years!
Can’t wait for Election night!