Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: SAT 10/27: R:50 O:46 Obama -10%
Posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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From the internals, it looks like support for Romney by independents is flying off the charts. And this poll is still only +4? Ras must be adding special sauce.
Silver is Baghdad Nate at this point. He put himself so far out on the ledge in September that he cannot afford to comeback now. Although, he did have a chance to pullback after the first debate when there was a clear momentum shift, but he refused, so now he’s stuck.
I did my thesis on Garbage In Garbage Out modeling, and how it is accepted by the general public, i.e. since it is processed/produced by a “smart” computer, people believe the BS.
You can basically create any result you want if you input the requisite numbers - and still look like you know what you are talking about. His sabermetrics modeling is laughable relative to politics.
So seriously, who is delusional then? Us or them?
Both sides are delusional.
Them for living in their little fairyland and believing that their beloved leader is going to get re-elected. And us for paying attention to their raving lunacies.
He has a great future in Climate Scientology.
It's difficult to even explain their warped perception of this election (which actually explains a lot about their view of the real world)
So, in a sickly entertaining way, it's worth a visit if you want to see what they're thinking.
Its laughable. My favorite thing is the complete dismissal of legit poll numbers (that don't show 0 winning) while they cling to the most extreme poll numbers from no name pollsters. They are pinning all their hopes on the realclearpolitics and Nate Silver polls.
They seriously deny reality: One thread on there today says with complete certainty that RomneyRyan is pulling out of “Ohoi” by this Tuesday. All it takes is a 30 second visit to the Romney website where it list the upcoming weeks events.
Election night should be very entertaining.
Shouldn't we expect this number to decrease as we get closer to election day? I mean, when you're ready to go ACTUALLY VOTE for somebody, wouldn't you be more likely to say you "Strongly Support" them?
Did Ras track this kind of number in 2004?
>> Has anyone figured out how to reconcile this huge Swing State lead for Romney <<
Sure. Just plug in some extremely high lead numbers for the five states that seem to lean toward Romney (CO, FL, VA, NH & NC), and some much closer nummbers for the other six states.
For example, let’s assume that a unweighted average for the five R-leaning states gives a R advantage of 58-to-42. Then assume that the six other states give Ø an unweighted average advantage of 51-to-49. The result is an R advantage of almost exactly six points.
[Arithmetic Note: You don’t even need Excel to run the numbers! Just compute (5*58+6*49)/11 and then compare with (5*42+6*31)/11. Rounded to one decimal place, the grand average lead for Romney is 6.2%.]
Now if you don’t like the simplifying assumptions above, you could try many variations to produce similar outcomes. You could weight the state-by-state numbers by state populations, by state electoral votes and/or by state vote turnouts in 2008 or 2010. Then if the lead for Romney is too high or too low relative to six percent, you could fiddle with different state percentages until you generate a grand average lead where the mean comes in right at Rasmussen’s number. All in a day’s work!
Just checked my DU login. Still works after all these years!
Can’t wait for Election night!
Just vote and use your head...I’m so tired of the polls, which are BS.
* The evil eye from Obama, the late night shows (lacking base solidity)
* The ROmney voters like me who hang up...am I the only one, hope...millions
* the R voters who don’t have signs in our yard for fear of being called racist and losing business as a small business owner...am I the only one? Nope, millions
* will the turnout for blacks be the same? Nope
* will single women vote with the same enthusiasm after watching any 10 minute period of any of the debates? Will they see an angry child and really, really value their genetalia over their overall well being including monetary, military, etc?
* will students even with free education but no jobs REALLY vote with the 2008 enthusiasm? No
* will the coal, oil unions REALLY vote Obama with the same enthusiasm? Come on, wake up...one even made the video.
Get real...turn off the polls and know we are way ahead, more ahead than say, 3% voter fraud. We are way past and beyond Holder’s reach, way beyond Hurrican Sandy’s reach...just listen to Rush a little more and turn off cable and satellite TV...read Freep, Hot air, Blaze, etc.
DU today reminds me of frankly us after the Dem convention. We relied on unreliable and unknown pollsters (as well as frankly truly GOP firm polls as well).
They are doing the same and quoting Dem pollsters now.
I am looking at Ras and Gallup.
Right now, I am very confident we win.
If the trend goes south, I will get concerned. But, I do not see a real change in this race. Both of the October surprises did not do anything, and frankly, I doubt any more are coming this late in the game.
2000 is not like today.....so many vote early you have to get those surprises out early.
The only thing that does concern me is the superstorm and how it may cause people to see Obama as savior again.
But, it is largely impacting Dem areas as it is, including likely hitting DC very hard.
Voting may be difficult due to loss of power in Virginia/Pennsylvania etc.
Nate Silver’s ridiculous 75% Obama win projection rests on the assumption that this year’s Democratic voter turnout will be exactly the same or better than 2008.
The fly in the ointment of course is Gallup has already projected an R+1 advantage for this election. If that’s true, there goes Silver’s credibility as a political analyst. It all rides on the conventional wisdom MSM being true.
I don’t think it will be and Gallup and Barone both think the odds favor Romney. So Silver still has time to revisit this crazy scenario he’s postulating and the only people who agree him are on Intrade - which still puts Obama’s chance of being re-elected at 63.6%. We’ll know soon enough who are the real outliers in this election.
Good, the farther out on his emotion based limb Silver crawls, the more his professional reputation will be destroyed. He is turning into the Zogby of this election
Both. The right thinks it will be repeater of 1980, the Left thinks it will be a repeat of 2008. In actuality it will be closer to 2004. The election will be decided in Ohio and by under 250,000 votes.
But that's the problem. Romney doesn't have leads anything close to 58-42 in the states he is winning. If he did I wouldn't be posing the question.
Your analysis is OK. But the required Romney margins are jut unrealistic.
I will tell you that one of them is Oregon. Can’t go into how I know that, but the internals are CRAZY....
What we are seeing is batter Conservative syndrome. A lot of Conservatives are habitual “Eeyore's” they assume that they will lose even when they are winning. Leftists live in a emotional bubble world. They figure because they feel something it is true.
Looking at Rasmussen polls of who people think is going to win Obama is leading by about the same margin as he is on Intrade. So basically people who are doing everything they can to fire Obama are still assuming Obama is going to win.
There is the disconnect between Intrade and the polling. Polls are a measure of what people are going to do, Intrade is a measure of what they think will happen
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