Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: SAT 10/27: R:50 O:46 Obama -10%
Posted on 10/27/2012 6:33:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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Just vote and use your head...I’m so tired of the polls, which are BS.
* The evil eye from Obama, the late night shows (lacking base solidity)
* The ROmney voters like me who hang up...am I the only one, hope...millions
* the R voters who don’t have signs in our yard for fear of being called racist and losing business as a small business owner...am I the only one? Nope, millions
* will the turnout for blacks be the same? Nope
* will single women vote with the same enthusiasm after watching any 10 minute period of any of the debates? Will they see an angry child and really, really value their genetalia over their overall well being including monetary, military, etc?
* will students even with free education but no jobs REALLY vote with the 2008 enthusiasm? No
* will the coal, oil unions REALLY vote Obama with the same enthusiasm? Come on, wake up...one even made the video.
Get real...turn off the polls and know we are way ahead, more ahead than say, 3% voter fraud. We are way past and beyond Holder’s reach, way beyond Hurrican Sandy’s reach...just listen to Rush a little more and turn off cable and satellite TV...read Freep, Hot air, Blaze, etc.
DU today reminds me of frankly us after the Dem convention. We relied on unreliable and unknown pollsters (as well as frankly truly GOP firm polls as well).
They are doing the same and quoting Dem pollsters now.
I am looking at Ras and Gallup.
Right now, I am very confident we win.
If the trend goes south, I will get concerned. But, I do not see a real change in this race. Both of the October surprises did not do anything, and frankly, I doubt any more are coming this late in the game.
2000 is not like today.....so many vote early you have to get those surprises out early.
The only thing that does concern me is the superstorm and how it may cause people to see Obama as savior again.
But, it is largely impacting Dem areas as it is, including likely hitting DC very hard.
Voting may be difficult due to loss of power in Virginia/Pennsylvania etc.
Nate Silver’s ridiculous 75% Obama win projection rests on the assumption that this year’s Democratic voter turnout will be exactly the same or better than 2008.
The fly in the ointment of course is Gallup has already projected an R+1 advantage for this election. If that’s true, there goes Silver’s credibility as a political analyst. It all rides on the conventional wisdom MSM being true.
I don’t think it will be and Gallup and Barone both think the odds favor Romney. So Silver still has time to revisit this crazy scenario he’s postulating and the only people who agree him are on Intrade - which still puts Obama’s chance of being re-elected at 63.6%. We’ll know soon enough who are the real outliers in this election.
Good, the farther out on his emotion based limb Silver crawls, the more his professional reputation will be destroyed. He is turning into the Zogby of this election
Both. The right thinks it will be repeater of 1980, the Left thinks it will be a repeat of 2008. In actuality it will be closer to 2004. The election will be decided in Ohio and by under 250,000 votes.
But that's the problem. Romney doesn't have leads anything close to 58-42 in the states he is winning. If he did I wouldn't be posing the question.
Your analysis is OK. But the required Romney margins are jut unrealistic.
I will tell you that one of them is Oregon. Can’t go into how I know that, but the internals are CRAZY....
What we are seeing is batter Conservative syndrome. A lot of Conservatives are habitual “Eeyore's” they assume that they will lose even when they are winning. Leftists live in a emotional bubble world. They figure because they feel something it is true.
Looking at Rasmussen polls of who people think is going to win Obama is leading by about the same margin as he is on Intrade. So basically people who are doing everything they can to fire Obama are still assuming Obama is going to win.
There is the disconnect between Intrade and the polling. Polls are a measure of what people are going to do, Intrade is a measure of what they think will happen
>> Romney doesn’t have leads anything close to 58-42 in the states he is winning <<
I don’t necessarily dispute your point. Maybe the leads aren’t there. I just don’t know, because I haven’t bothered to dig up the latest survey data for each of the eleven states in question. But in my previous post, I just wanted to make the point that it’s not at all difficult to generate a set of numbers replicating Rasmussen’s bottom line.
In any case, if we assume truthfulness and reliability for Rasmussen’s methodology, there clearly has to be SOME combination of swing-state averages that will give Romney a six point advantage.
Therefore, if some energetic FReeper (not me!) has the time to dig thru all the data and run umpteen simulations, I’m pretty confident that he could discover a reasonable scenario to answer your original question, i.e., whether anybody can figure out a way to duplicate Rasmussen’s findings.
“....So it ain’t far fetched the female species really DOES take after Eve’s DNA....bunch of stupid idiots!...”
Now you know why the Founding Fathers never let them vote.
It wasn’t because they didn’t love their women. It’s because they knew they would vote their “emotions” rather than the issues. Of course, not all of em are like that in this modern era, but it generally runs true in the mentally-deranged liberal camp for sure.
The problem is dependency on government. Married women are usually conservative. But liberals figured out how to make single women dependent on government by replacing traditional marriage with the acceptance of promiscuity.
“A lot of Conservatives are habitual Eeyore’s they assume that they will lose even when they are winning. Leftists live in a emotional bubble world. They figure because they feel something it is true.”
We overanalyze everything. What if this happens, what if that happens?
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