Skip to comments.Daily Swing State Tracking Poll Swing State Tracking: Romney 51%, Obama 45%
Posted on 10/27/2012 7:08:31 AM PDT by tatown
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The Libya Effect is starting to take hold. Expect this number for Romney to rise.
getting close to where Obama won this tracking in 2008 53-46 +7.........People are settling and breaking for Romney. Getting close to over for Obama. GOTV.
by the way this is the first time Romney has hit 51% in any Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Significant.
Or as Michael Savage calls it - Libyagate because the first three letters of Libya spells Lib.
I’m hoping this scandal brings obama down.
why is everyone celebrating?? Ohio is still a huge problem, even Dick Morris admitted it on Fox last night. Where are the PACs “Swiftboat Ads” about Libya??? That’s what it will take to seal this(no pun intended). The MSM is simply ignoring it.
Also factor in the carpet bombing of ads and a voting populace in these states that is very amenable to change away from the Disaster. One has to commend the Romney campaign for a steady, unflagging strategy, as if they knew all along this was in the bag. A month ago not many of us was feeling optimistic. For the final 9 days, both hands on the wheel!
I hope the libs continue to ignore these polls and hold up the D+7-D+9 Ohio polls right through election day. It’s what we did in 2008.
Notice the meme now is that Obama can win EVs and lose national vote. I have seen several of these narrative-building stories in the MSM over the past 3-4 days.
Bottomline: If Romney wins the national vote by 3-4-5 it is statistically impossible to lose the electoral college vote. Only if the national vote is under 1.5% can this happen.
Not celebrating but If Romney pulls out a 5% win and wins well in swing states, Ohio will fall, if Wisc, PA, and other blue states are in play, Ohio will most definitely fall, do not believe the poll crap on Ohio, the media knows if they hand Ohio over in polling to Romney, this race is over, toast and they have nothing to do for the next ten days but wallow in pity, Ohio is the hold them up numbers wedgie by the media.
Then why are they still called swing states?
I completely agree with you.
As I mentioned earlier, IF Gallup is correct and this turnout ends up being R+1 Romney will win this thing by 10+ points and every single state will be in play (including CA). FWIW, a poll released yesterday showed Obama at a meek 53% in CA and that number does not assuming a huge R wave....
NOTE: Adrian Gray, one of the best numbers guys out there, has been tracking OH bellweather counties. Rs up .01 in these bellweathers in early voting. If that’s true, then the election is over. We always overperform on election day itself; and this doesn’t even factor in Indies!
I somewhat disagree, Obama can win with 2-2.5 point deficit in national poll, but it would be very unusual. Rasmussen has Romney back up by four national, which is outside Obama’s credible win the electoral college but lose the national vote window.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%
What’s more important than the 51% number is the 45% number.
Ohio is only a “huge problem” if Obama wins all of the other states that were shown as “leaning Obama” as recently as six weeks ago. I don’t think this is going to happen, and I would not be surprised to see a scenario unfold where Romney wins even without Ohio due to a couple of unexpected “red” states on Election Day. Michigan and Pennsylvania are now in play, and there are a couple of states where Romney is polling surprisingly well considering how “blue” they usually are (Oregon and New Jersey, for example).
Now, I am looking forward to your noon report (CDT) on Gallup!
I hope the ABCWASHPO goes back to +3, as that will also move the RCP
This is great news BUT the lame-stream has plenty of time to concoct a Zero ‘come back’. This is evident on CNN with their poll today of Zero at 50 and Romney 46 in Ohio — yet nowhere could I find a link to the poll internals.
Very, very nervous what kind of avalanche of fake polls the Lames will foist on the dumb-ass undecideds while the Bengazi story is ignored.
Very, very nervous about these stories of people voting for Romney and the machine registers it as a vote for Zero. (How many did this happen to that did not NOTICE?)
Very, very nervous that the Dim attempts to steal this election will dwarf anything they did in 2000.
I just want this to be over and that LIAR/MURDERER in the oval office to be FIRED.
SEND IN MORE UN OBSERVERS!!!!!!!!!
Based on the statistics of the last 4 election beginning with Clinton/Dole and ends with McCain/Obama, I used the following data:
Average of %D votes
Obamas 2008 %D votes
National Minority increase turn-out of 4% in 2008
%R hard-core Republicans for Mc Cain in 2008
Obama-factor %= 2008 %D minus avg %D
Since minority 4% is no longer there this year, so I give 2% back to D and 2% to R.
And assume Obama factor was completely negated this year. After subtracting out 2% from Obama factor (2008) from each state, I came up with %R projected for Romney this election.
Summing up, my formula is as follows:
O-factor = %D (2008) - %D avg (1998-2004 elections)
Swing for Republican this year (by Independents and low voter turn-out):
Swing = O-factor 2%
%R for Romney form each state = %R for McCain + Swing
And I predict the followings based on past % win/loss of each state :
Romney will win CO (52.4%), FL(51.3%), IA (49.2%), NH (50.1%), OH (49.4%), VA (52.1%), Wis (49.7%) for total of 295 votes.
He might win the followings if the turn-outs are low: Michigan (50.2%), Minn (49.0%), NV (47.7%), Oregon (48.9%), PA (48.0%) for total of 330 votes or so.
You can get the stats of past elections from the following site to do your own math:
For some states such as New England states and Michigan, you might want to use Bushs numbers to increase Romney popularity slightly.
And the updated news today is that Romney begins to buy ads in Wisconsin and PA indicating his internal pollsters seeing the same as I have predicted.
Oregon has begun to swing toward Romney as well.
Just for fun and a peace of mind.
Rasmussen has OH 48-48. If Obama is at 48% on Election Day, that is his ceiling. Obama is failing to break 48 in a lot of the swing states which tells me he is going to lose most if not all of them.
Sam, I’m on the ground here in Ohio and am hosting a volunteer from Texas through the election.Ohio is looking pretty good right now.
Keep in mind that the media cannot report that Ohio has Romney in the lead. If they do then its’ game over a week out. The libs get disappointed and a decision cascade kicks into full gear wherein the Romney numbers get higher and Obama’s get lower. Romney could be up 15 in Ohio and the media will jigger the numbers to give him a one point lead. Ohio is the last brick “standing” in Obama’s firewall. The media will prop it up until 10:00 pm on November 6th. It’s all they have left to keep the race from becoming a foregone conclusion.
Bad news for your projected %’s: even unenthusiastic Dims will go back to the polls on the off chance they can get more stuff.
As the polls start closing in the Eastern time zones and a Romney wave becomes apparent, it is conceivable that rat voters in the West will decide to skip an evening vote. Even Hawaii went to Reagan in 1984. Numerous House and Senate seats in the West and Mountain time zones may tilt ‘R’ if the early numbers point toward a landslide.
Romney is ahead in all these national polls. He is moved into the lead in Florida and N. Carolina. He might be leading in Colorado. He is in a tie with Virginia and New Hampshire. Even Wisconsin is tightening.
Yet Ohio hasn’t moved an inch?
Something just isn’t adding up. Is Ohio like Nevada that the unions have put all their eggs into those two states?
More or less, the popular vote for President in the US is only of ceremonial significance. It has no legal status.
If the states through their legislatures wanted to - they could legally appoint the electors themselves who in turn would choose the President.
The only federal body the people directly elect is the Congress. Before 1913, they only elected the House Of Representatives and state legislatures chose the state’s Senators.
We have an indirect election of the President.
Here in Michigan...in 2008, in the Detroit area, all you saw were Obama lawn signs, they were everywhere. This year, ive seen just 2. Also, in 2008, outside gas stations in Detroit, the Dems had 2 people registering voters,,,this year, zero..none. The enthusiasm of Obama is simply gone, Michigan will go red.
I am concerned about Ohio. Three polls out from there yesterday and Obama lead all three by an average of three points.
Still, Morris is right. If Romney wins the popular vote by 3%+, then enough other states will flip to him that Ohio won’t even matter.
On Wednesday, Rasmussen reported Ohio as a tie and this swing state tracking poll was Romney +4. Today this swing state tracking poll is Romney +6. This would indicate that Ohio has moved +2 Romney. This swing state poll also shows a constant steady increase in Romney vote while Obama is fluctuating around 45-47, not moving anywhere.
I think 2012 is going to be a year of "broken glass white people" who are willing to crawl over shards of glass just to vote against a surly, incompetent black man who will forever be remembered as "President Dinkins."
Patriotic Republicans come out in impressive numbers for we know it is do or die this election. My projected numbers might be low in some states. Democrats will stay home because Obama is a big disappointment for all.
I live in OH. It is tough this year because the lie that Romney just wants to bankrupt auto industry. It will be tight but Democrat never went above 48% in OH except 2008. Coal and gas industry jobs, religious freedom, Benghazi, immorality, lies will push OH barely over the top, and I will call my home state for Romney with 49.7% / 47% .
Very good news! Thanks for posting this and keeping us updated!
There has been 28 years of slouching towards Gomorrah since the Regan landslide.
Because Ohio tracks National PV. Meaning GOP candidates do at least as equally well as their National PV, and sometimes better (Bush 2000, +3.51%).
Sure hope Dick Morris is right.... he’s often wrong.... Romney has never had a lead in Ohio and someone on Fox news yesterday said that Obama and demoncRATS have been working Ohio for 2012 since 2008.... I just don’t get how Romney has this nice lead in the Battleground states but yet each individual state polls shows him down by one, even (like Wisconsin) or up by 1 or 2....and yet down in Ohio from -1 to -4....doesn’t make sense to me.... can’t wait for this to be over.
Looks like the maximum knowledge about the Libya debacle is going to happen in ohhh A WEEK. Perfect timing. Keep emailing and calling the media to REPORT IT AS FOX NEWS DID.
NOTE: Adrian Gray, one of the best numbers guys out there, has been tracking OH bellweather counties. Rs up .01 in these bellweathers in early voting. If thats true, then the election is over. We always overperform on election day itself; and this doesnt even factor in Indies!
Michael Barone although not definitive on Ohio called the end race for Romney.
He’s very through and hopefully is reading through the MSM / pollsters
Clutter to use some realistic modeling to come up with hiss prediction this early.
And the ones that show a worse total in the private Dem internal polling :)
The unions also put a lot of eggs in the Wisconsin basket and couldn’t get rid of Walker. I realize they have some power in Ohio and Nevada, but many of the “rank and file” have suffered under the regime. My brother-in-law in Nevada is a union member and gets several strong-arm calls a week. He, my sister and my nephew hate Obama and will vote accordingly. Because of Obamacare, his company now deducts $1000 from his paycheck a month for healthcare. Before Obamacare his deduction was $120.
There is absolutely nothing that could happen in the next two weeks to put MA into play.
But this is still pretty good news!
The MSM will NEVER show Romney ahead in OH.
They have a meme to protect and also they need to stay relevant. Bush was in this exact position in 2004 and he went on to win OH.
I expect this is going to happen again this year but it won’t be as close as in 2004 when it took a few days for the networks to make the OH call for Bush only after Kerry had already conceded.
I like your assessment of Ohio. I’m dependent on the MSM as I’m “on the ground” in Mitt’s home state, the People’s Republic of Massachusetts.
Yeah, of all people I would think Barone can see this. I’ve been sending him our stuff. Clearly Adrian Gray and @NumbersMuncher on Twitter get it.
This is EXACTLY what a second tier pollster told me a week ago. They cannot allow the polls to come anywhere close to showing OH "called," because then ALL of Obama's support crumbles in the remaining states. And who, then, would need a pollster?
BTW, I'm on the ground in Dayton. Same thing. No enthusiasm for Zero. Heavy enthusiasm for Romney and even heavier enthusiasm for getting rid of Zero.
I think if R gets to your second tier, you would have to throw CT in there.
Obama-factor here in 2008 is very small 2.8%
My final calculation for CT is 44.9%R, too small.
CT is too democrat-leaning.
If Romney is at 51-45 now it means he will be closer to 55-45 on election day in the swing states.
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