Skip to comments.Daily Swing State Tracking Poll Swing State Tracking: Romney 51%, Obama 45%
Posted on 10/27/2012 7:08:31 AM PDT by tatown
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So Ohio is important, better to have it then not. But what happens if Romney on election night WINS Ohio AND Colorado AND NH and enough others to give him say 290 votes. Then someone says HEY WAIT!! And decide to give Ohio to Obama? Take 18 from Romney’s total (BTW this is TWO less EC votes than before) and give them to Obama and the result is Romney wins anyway with 272 EC votes.
Just because “they” say a Rep has never won the WH without Ohio does not mean a Rep cannot win the WH without Ohio. If Nixon or Reagan had not won Ohio would they have lost the election? Not even close.
I don't see any celebrations.
About Ohio, it's become Pennsylvania west. It isn't the bellwether it once was. Look to NH, IA, WI and CO. They are moving our way.
Just some anecdotal information from VA as a poll observer at a VA in-person absentee satellite polling station in Fairfax County. Reps are matching the Dems in early voting, which is very unusual. The GOP level of enthusiasm and righteous anger is the most I have seen in the 33 years living here. All we have to do is break close to even in NoVA and we can win this thing by 2% to 3%.
I noticed that many Reps are bringing their 18 year old high school children to vote. The number of veterans is also considerable and the old and hobbled stream in to vote. As one old vet of Korea and Vietnam said, "I don't care if I die before election day, I voted to get this bastard out of the WH." And so did his wife. Inspiring stuff. People are realizing what is at stake in this election.
Okay, I live in a suburb of Seattle, WA; so, there is no chance of WA going red; but, I live next door to an African-American (older) couple and he always, ALWAYS has Democratic candidate signs hanging off his front fence during election season. We have lived next door to this couple for over 30 years --- always the same.
Last election, Obama/Biden signs on his fence --- this year, none, zero, nada. There is one sign for a local man running for a State Rep seat; but, no Obama/Biden sign. I am gob-smacked about that. If the "O" has lost my neighbor, he is in deep trouble.
I had an Uncle named Sam Katz. He was a Ukranian Jewish immigrant who came to America in the 1920’s when he was 17 years old. He made a success of himself without even having a high school diploma. It is because of the passing of his generation that an America hating, 1980’s college campus “Alt Rock” (Husker Du/Joy Division/The Smiths) Leftist like Obama was able to hoodwink latter day dumbed down America into electing him to the White House.
And no, I don’t share your pessimism about Ohio. I live in New York, and I believe that Romney has a 50/50 shot at carrying the Empire State en route to a landslide win. Because as dumbed down as America has become, we still don’t want Socialism. The problem is, the media/academia/Hollywood Liberal triumvirate has done everything in their power over the last 40 years to prevent the masses from being able to identify who the Socialists are and the amount of power they’ve amassed in various American institutions.
But Obama has shed bright sunlight on this infection, and he will be thrown to the curb with great force on election night!
I pray you are right.
I am such a pessimist, until I own an outcome. (Must be genetic.). But even I believe the Gazigaye scandal HAS to be eeking out there, and if it does soon enough, democrats may sober up. They are a very large part of our military and Armed Forces. That’s a brotherhood with influence.
As for thinking people, everyone knows if this were a Republican administration there would be hellfire burning across the nation. So, thank you, for saying that you too believe it’s starting to break through. Finally. Maybe. Sorta. I pray for a wake up BEFORE this election.
Some additional anecdotal evidence is this:
I live in a Dane County WI suburb of Madison. When we were going through the whole recall thing there were hundreds of Recall Walker signs everywhere, union officials everywhere drumming up support to oust Walker.
Now it is very quiet. Hardly an Obama sign to speak of and no union people on street corners trying to raise support for 0.
The GOTV effort for fending off the recall is still in place and is as effective as it was in June, Wisconsin will be close, but it will go for Romney 51% to 48%.
White working class has no allegiance to the Usurper really, maybe some of the flunkies in the UAW but then there are the utility, coal and gas workers getting screwed in return.
I think the polls are missing something, I don't think Ohioans are that different from their neighbors.
Free Republic is annoying me today. We have a 4-5 point lead nationally, 6 points in the swing states, strong and consistent evidence from Freepers LS and Ravi that Zero is way underperforming his early voting from 2008, which is now being reported on many of the conservative websites and bloggers, yet many continue to hand wring and buy into the media spin...there’s another thread circulating on FR that someone heard that 2 bus loads of Somalis were voting in Ohio and everyone on here is throwing in the towel saying we are going to lose, the Libs are cheating. It’s all over!! Stop it! Go vote, get others to vote, volunteer, knock on doors and stop whining! If Mitt wins by 4-5 points nationally, he is not going to lose the EV. What would this board be like if Mitt was down 5 points!
However, I must admit I am concerned about this poll:
They have Obama up by 2.3%, and they are in the RCP average as IBD/TIPP.
While they have a D/R/I at 38/31/32, they also claim to have called both the 2004 and 2008 elections with the greatest accuracy.
Further, IBD is no fan of Obama. Their editorial page is among the most conservative.
I pray you're right. The MSM is doing everything they can to ignore that story...
This argument has a lot of merit. It echoes waht happens on election night, when the news programs fight to keep ratings up by not calling key states even as the contest dwindles.
Ding Ding Ding!!!!! Tell him what he’s won Johnny!!!!
You have NAILED it!!! Ohio goes to Romney! Their internals tell them so...
I voted yesterday, and my little area tucked in between parts of Milwaukee proper was recently redistricted into the Republican represented area for state offices. Had to stand in line longer than I would had I gone on election day.
I am thinking this is more a factitious distortion by the media/polling enterprises.
BTW - I thought this exchange regarding MO polling at DU offered helpful insight into the mind of the left:
(I’m thinking ‘Glacierbay’ might be a Freeper... 8^)
My better half and I will be in your area Monday Night for the Romney Rally. I just ordered my tickets and we are planning on leaving here as soon as we both get off work.
This is going to be fun!
I’m jealous! Right now I’m not in any physical shape to be standing for that long - I’ll be there in spirit though. My drive home will surely be a long one, as I have to go past there.
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
Michael Barone knows every district and precinct in the country. If he says Romney wins, I would bet on him.
Agree. You can see how careful he is on election nights not to make wild statements or calls
Yeah, of all people I would think Barone can see this. Ive been sending him our stuff. Clearly Adrian Gray and @NumbersMuncher on Twitter get it.
Good. Thanks for your efforts to keep us, and others informed. Helps to have some on the ground non filtered reality
Its funny. My prediction is based on my fourth model which I believe the most scientific and reliable as it is independent from polling data, just past statistics. After my prediction is made, the most recent polling and Romney campaign and ad acitivities appear to confirm my theory. I did the analysis with fact not emotion, therefore, it might be valid. Most powerful force comes from prayers, please don’t neglect it. Alone we can’t do nothing, but with God, we can do everything. For humor, gas price in OH yesterday is 2.99, today is 3.45, no need for further price control as their cause is lost in OH. LOL
I remember Barone on Fox on Election Night 2004 working the Ohio numbers county-by-county (maybe even town-by-town) and telling us it was over for Kerry well before the state was called.
On that level of nitty-gritty numbers-crunching, I would trust Barone over anyone else.
Look at what is going on in Washoe County (Reno-Tahoe), Nevada:
If Rasmussen is correct, 60% of the “other” votes are going for Romney.
I am seeing the same thing here in Oakland County. Last election it was Obama signs by 5 to 1, yet this year there are very few and the vast majority is Romney. Saw the same thing on a visit into Macomb County last week. I would be surprised if Michigan goes red ... but it is possible.
i can see your point..but the fact is, ive never been so worried about whats happened to this great nation in just the last 4 years...Socialized Medicine..etc...whats makes it all the more galling, to think that an unaccomplished punk “community organizer” could pull this all off. Never in my wildest dreams did i ever think id see captialism attacked in this country like this. That said, Romney will win handily.. thank God.
Praying without ceasing is the other thing :)
The Liberal Media can propagandize all it wants. It's no longer working. The Liberal Messiah is almost certainly doomed. Nonetheless, remain vigilant.
” I think the polls are missing something, I don’t think Ohioans are that different from their neighbors. “
Unions, Kasich and auto bailouts, I’m afraid.
This is common every election. I remember it back during the recall in Wisconsin. They are just working out their boredom by reading news stories and watching polls, reacting to every errant blog post and tweet rumor.
If you go to the DUmp you will see the same talk, just with names switched.
If Rassmussen is so accurate why does Nate Silver, other than he is a Obamazombie, not include it in his polls? He states they are not accurate and were wrong by more than 5%.
Now the Conservative Community just need to 1. Have a Plan A in order to prevent voter fraud from being used to get Obama reelected 2. A Plan B, C, D, E, F through Z to allow us to prepare to handle the worst case disaster scenario that Obama gets elected through voter fraud and other means. What are the Plans A through Z that we have ?
It’s pretty amazing that Romney can be ahead +3 nationally, +5 among swing states, and still not have an EV majority. Don’t know how Rasmussen does that.