Based on the statistics of the last 4 election beginning with Clinton/Dole and ends with McCain/Obama, I used the following data:
Average of %D votes
Obamas 2008 %D votes
National Minority increase turn-out of 4% in 2008
%R hard-core Republicans for Mc Cain in 2008
Obama-factor %= 2008 %D minus avg %D
Since minority 4% is no longer there this year, so I give 2% back to D and 2% to R.
And assume Obama factor was completely negated this year. After subtracting out 2% from Obama factor (2008) from each state, I came up with %R projected for Romney this election.
Summing up, my formula is as follows:
O-factor = %D (2008) - %D avg (1998-2004 elections)
Swing for Republican this year (by Independents and low voter turn-out):
Swing = O-factor 2%
%R for Romney form each state = %R for McCain + Swing
And I predict the followings based on past % win/loss of each state :
Romney will win CO (52.4%), FL(51.3%), IA (49.2%), NH (50.1%), OH (49.4%), VA (52.1%), Wis (49.7%) for total of 295 votes.
He might win the followings if the turn-outs are low: Michigan (50.2%), Minn (49.0%), NV (47.7%), Oregon (48.9%), PA (48.0%) for total of 330 votes or so.
You can get the stats of past elections from the following site to do your own math:
For some states such as New England states and Michigan, you might want to use Bushs numbers to increase Romney popularity slightly.
And the updated news today is that Romney begins to buy ads in Wisconsin and PA indicating his internal pollsters seeing the same as I have predicted.
Oregon has begun to swing toward Romney as well.
Just for fun and a peace of mind.
Bad news for your projected %’s: even unenthusiastic Dims will go back to the polls on the off chance they can get more stuff.
I think 2012 is going to be a year of "broken glass white people" who are willing to crawl over shards of glass just to vote against a surly, incompetent black man who will forever be remembered as "President Dinkins."
I think if R gets to your second tier, you would have to throw CT in there.
BTW - I thought this exchange regarding MO polling at DU offered helpful insight into the mind of the left:
(I’m thinking ‘Glacierbay’ might be a Freeper... 8^)