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Don't Be Surprised if It's Pennsylvania
American Thinker ^

Posted on 10/27/2012 7:41:57 AM PDT by Perdogg

There's a serious flaw in all of the polls which is misrepresenting the current state of the presidential race. As Dick Morris has pointed out, the pollsters all assume the demographic turnout will be the same as it was in 2008. There are many reasons why this is simply not going to happen. Many African-American preachers have already indicated that Obama hasn't done anything for black people and that his views on gay marriage do not match their own. They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; pa2012; pennsylvania
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1 posted on 10/27/2012 7:42:00 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping


2 posted on 10/27/2012 7:43:59 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

They election could be called when the polls close in Pennsylvania. We win! Further, this would depress Democratic voting still going on in the rest of the country. I hope it happens.


3 posted on 10/27/2012 7:46:11 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Perdogg

This is a pretty nervous election...hopefully (prayerfully) Romney will win in a landslide and bring the Senate with him.

I would be amazed if he carries Pennsylvania. This is the state where last cycle some black panthers would not let white people vote in Philly...remember? Gotta believe that the voting will be cooked in Philly and Pittsburgh by the unions.

Still...if Romney wins big enough, there are some fixes that can’t be done.

Ohio is the big kahuna. 800,000 early voters there...gotta wonder how many of these folks will be allowed to vote twice.


4 posted on 10/27/2012 7:47:18 AM PDT by kjo (+)
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To: Perdogg

Several well-reasoned points here. But when he says “They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls” - I think that’s a bit too absolute. From what I’ve seen the black community is divided in two camps - those who would vote for Obama simply because of race no matter what, and those who “won’t get fooled again”. Thus it seems to me that the outcome will be determined in part by the relative turnout of these two segments. I will speculate that there will be a lot more motivation to get out and vote amongst those who are sour on Obama vs. the race-based voters.


5 posted on 10/27/2012 7:48:17 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: Perdogg

I’ll call PA for Romney. Democratic turnout is not going to be high as it was in 2008.

Turnout by Republicans and Independents will be a lot heavier particularly in the suburbs and western half of the state.

Romney should carry the Keystone State with Tom Corbett’s winning percentage in 2010 - 54.5%.


6 posted on 10/27/2012 7:49:47 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: All

the conclusion is correct. If the democrats can’t muster up enough homeless, infirmed, dead, illegals and felons to win a very “blue” state, then they will lose the election.


7 posted on 10/27/2012 7:50:22 AM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: bigbob

Don’t agree on PA. If you use RealClearPolitics’ map, with 191 currently for Romney, and Romney gets FL, NC, VA, CO, IA, NV and NH, all of which are possible, Romney gets to 269 without OH, PA, WI or MI. I think he does that plus OH, and WI and PA won’t mean a thing.

PS: There is NO WAY Obama can win if he loses PA and OH. You can’t say that for Romney.


8 posted on 10/27/2012 7:54:03 AM PDT by cumbo78
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To: Perdogg

If Romney wins PA it is over. HOWEVER, the lame-stream will not call it for Romney until WELL AFTER the west coast has voted. They’ll attempt to look honest: “We don’t want a repeat of 2000 where Florida was called too soon and people in the western timezone went home because they believed it was too late to make a difference...” What crap. Get ready for it.


9 posted on 10/27/2012 7:55:40 AM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: goldstategop
If Romney wins by Corbett's margin, Tom Smith also gets over the finish line.

Of course, Corbett's popularity has fallen somewhat. Short memories in the Commonwealth. People quickly forget how badly Rendell busted the budget because the Corbett administration turned it around so quickly. Just the optimism his election brought to the business community here had a giant effect.

10 posted on 10/27/2012 7:56:26 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: cumbo78

The problem is Obama’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep.

No one on his side is enthusiastic about him. The old magic is gone. O is a tired incumbent with nothing fresh to offer.

People have already made up their minds.


11 posted on 10/27/2012 7:57:34 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ShovelThemOut

Good post. That’s exactly what would happen. All of a sudden the corrupt and manipulative media would be trying to appear as champions for integrity in the voting process -— when it in their interests to do so.


12 posted on 10/27/2012 8:01:53 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Perdogg.


13 posted on 10/27/2012 8:03:13 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: WashingtonSource

If Romney/Ryan carry Pennsylvania, this POTUS race will be over relatively early on election day evening!!! The West going for Obama/Biden will deflated like a pricked balloon. Maine, New Hanpshire, Pennsylvania....go Romney/Ryan early;;;;and Obama/Biden are flushed down the toilet into cesspool of obscurity where they both, so rightly belong!!!


14 posted on 10/27/2012 8:03:43 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: goldstategop

No one on his side is enthusiastic about him. The old magic is gone. O is a tired incumbent with nothing fresh to offer.
*********
I live in a deep blue state and work around a bunch of libs, and you’re right, the thrill is gone. I don’t see any enthusiasm.


15 posted on 10/27/2012 8:04:54 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: kjo

I’ve heard a lot about how if Ohio comes down to absentee ballots, the unions will make sure the dems win. Same goes for the almost all of the union-heavy states. You’re right about a big enough win for R&R will be impossible to cheat, at least I think so. As far as the Black Panthers showing up again; I don’t think so. The republicans were very aware of the enthusiasism of the left in ‘08 and also very aware of how weak of candidate McClain was. This time around the enthusiasism is on the side of republicans, the dems have the weak candidate and if the panthers did show their face the cops would show up about the same time as the ambulance. I figure that if DOJ didn’t care about what the panthers did in ‘08, they won’t care about what happens to them in ‘12.


16 posted on 10/27/2012 8:06:27 AM PDT by EandH Dad (sleeping giants wake up REALLY grumpy)
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To: kjo
...hopefully (prayerfully) Romney will win in a landslide and bring the Senate with him.

A big AMEN to that!

17 posted on 10/27/2012 8:06:37 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Starboard

I am in Cullyfohnia. I post alot of anti-Obama stuff on Facebook. Four years ago, my FB friends were highly defensive of him. Nowadays, it’s relegated to a few who complain about Romney’s tax rate or how Romney wants to take their vaginas away. Maybe 3-4 people tops. The thrill up their legs are gone...they are relegated to bashing Romney, much like Obama has programmed them to do via NLP.


18 posted on 10/27/2012 8:07:55 AM PDT by gman4bush
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To: Starboard

I agree. I know four people well who voted O in 2008 and when I refer to O as “your guy” they all say, he’s not MY guy. And I know that one of them is just not voting. One is calling himself an independent but I think he’ll go RR, one is out of the country and I doubt whether he voted absentee, and the fourth is still drinking the cool aid but says she could be okay with Romney if he wins.


19 posted on 10/27/2012 8:11:25 AM PDT by Mercat ("We're going to get those 'folks' who murdered our ambassador.")
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To: kjo
This is the state where last cycle some black panthers would not let white people vote in Philly...remember?

Much has been made of the Black Panthers and their being outside the polling place, but no white people were actually kept from voting. If they went past them, they voted. No one got beaten away from the polls. If some folks felt intimidated and didn't vote, that was their own problem. They had every right to vote, thugs or no.

Republicans, especially conservatives, need to get over the fear that continues to creep in as elections near. Disregard the 'nattering nabobs of negetavism', be they liberal, conservative, or 'moderate', get to the polls and vote Obama OUT!!!

20 posted on 10/27/2012 8:11:32 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: kjo
I would be amazed if he carries Pennsylvania. This is the state where last cycle some black panthers would not let white people vote in Philly...remember? Gotta believe that the voting will be cooked in Philly and Pittsburgh by the unions.

I doubt if there are many Black Panthers in communities such as Towanda, Dushore, North Versailles, or Uniontown. If people in areas like those get out and vote, they may be able to offset the big city machines.

21 posted on 10/27/2012 8:14:21 AM PDT by Fiji Hill (Deo Vindice!)
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To: Starboard
I had lunch last week with a business associate who is an ardent leftist. The conversation turned to the election, and you could see the doom in his eyes and hear it in his voice. Without much prodding he spent much of the time wondering when Obama's fortunes turned against him.

I think these people all realize -- four years later -- that they were conned by their own delusions into supporting an empty suit and an incompetent hack in 2008.

I'll give an explanation for Obama's miserable performance in the first debate, his surprisingly mediocre convention speech, and his frightfully inept (if not worse) response to the Benghazi consulate attack, too. He was told by his own people several months ago that he's going down in flames, and he's basically been mailing it in since then. After the first debate he had to be reminded that it's best for all involved to put a brave face on it and go through the motions ... lest a diminished turnout brings down other Democratic candidates, too.

22 posted on 10/27/2012 8:15:21 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: cumbo78

Good point. My only nit to pick is in the extent of diehard Obama voter turnout. And there is still a lot of time to influence that, especially as his Libya lies unravel. Failure to protect and defend our nation is certainly not a black/white issue and I see nothing in this that will HELP Obama.


23 posted on 10/27/2012 8:15:32 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: cumbo78

The point I believe is that PA gets called early in the evening, and Romney takes it the game’s about up.


24 posted on 10/27/2012 8:18:06 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Perdogg

I think Romney will win here. I am outside Philly and it is night and day compared to 08. You actually have to look hard to find Obama yard signs. Last time they were everywhere! The opposite is true here.. Romney signs popping up all over.

It has been a long hard 4 years under this oppressive regime... Time for some well deserved “R & R”!

While we’re at it... Let’s get some conservative Senators elected to help DeMint when he takes over the Senate so we can roll back this mess!


25 posted on 10/27/2012 8:25:37 AM PDT by WomBom ("I read Free Republic for the pictures")
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To: WashingtonSource

James O’Keefe and the FBI ( if they’re not too busy begging Obama for the right to go to Benghazi) need to set up cameras to record the number of people going into college and inner city precincts... If 800 people walk in to vote the ‘tally’ damn sure shouldn’t reflect 3,000 people voting.

When dems commit voter fraud they vote the people who don’t show up... ‘the dead vote’ is an accidental by-product of that type of cheating.


26 posted on 10/27/2012 8:26:20 AM PDT by GOPJ ('TRUTH is the Enemy of Democrat Thuggishness: Spread it like Napalm!' w/apology to Eric Allen Bell)
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To: Fiji Hill

OMG, my Mom’s family is from Dushore. First time I’ve ever seen anyone else who even heard of the place. There definitely will not be any Black Pampers hanging out there!!


27 posted on 10/27/2012 8:26:35 AM PDT by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: WashingtonSource; Perdogg; sickoflibs; neverdem; Liz

James O’Keefe and the FBI ( if they’re not too busy begging Obama for the right to go to Benghazi) need to set up cameras to record the number of people going into college and inner city precincts... If 800 people walk in to vote the ‘tally’ damn sure shouldn’t reflect 3,000 people voting.

When dems commit voter fraud they vote the people who don’t show up... ‘the dead vote’ is an accidental by-product of that type of cheating.


28 posted on 10/27/2012 8:27:52 AM PDT by GOPJ ('TRUTH is the Enemy of Democrat Thuggishness: Spread it like Napalm!' w/apology to Eric Allen Bell)
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To: ShovelThemOut

Election night on the TV:

“People in CA and everywhere else, this is very important. This election is NOT over yet. You MUST get to the polls. It is not too late. Please do not give up. Every vote counts. Call everyone you know and offer to drive them to the voting booth. We beg you! The president needs your vote now more than ever.”


29 posted on 10/27/2012 8:28:06 AM PDT by Right Wing Assault (Dick Obama is more inexperienced now than he was before he was elected.)
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To: WashingtonSource
They election could be called when the polls close in Pennsylvania.

I believe that no vote totals ahould be released until after the polls close on the left coast. That way the RATs can't calculate how many votes they have to manufacture or steal to win and get them in at the last minute.

30 posted on 10/27/2012 8:28:50 AM PDT by JimRed (Excise the cancer before it kills us; feed &water the Tree of Liberty! TERM LIMITS, NOW & FOREVER!)
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To: Right Wing Assault

Brian Williams will visibly sob

The tingle up Chissy leg will be tinkle and it will be one the happiest nights of my life!

I will actually get to enjoy television for a night!


31 posted on 10/27/2012 8:33:00 AM PDT by WomBom ("I read Free Republic for the pictures")
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To: Perdogg

Plus there’s no “walking-around money” this cycle.


32 posted on 10/27/2012 8:33:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Alberta's Child

More personal anecdotes reflecting liberal enervation:

1. I wanted to meet my ardently liberal friend at his house last night. He told me he can’t, as he’s going to a “neighborhood Obama fundraiser”. I told him, “Have fun. Obama needs the help.” He replied, “You’re right. Obama needs the help.”
2. I told another liberal acquaintance today that “you can’t get too mad at me about my conservative points of view, half of the country agrees with me.” She replied, “Unfortunately, I think MORE than half the country agrees with you.”
3. A liberal acquaintance called me a “racist” yesterday for supporting Mitt Romney and my wondering what happened to Obama’s college transcripts. Once the race card is played quickly by a leftist you know he is very worried.


33 posted on 10/27/2012 8:47:17 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: 9YearLurker
The point I believe is that PA gets called early in the evening, and Romney takes it the game’s about up.

The pools close in PA at 8 pm Eastern time and the networks generally make their calls about 2 minutes later or less.

Lets see how they handle it this time around considering all the other time zones will still be voting.

34 posted on 10/27/2012 8:48:26 AM PDT by Ditto (Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
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To: Ditto

PA always disapoints. She is like the the beautiful woman who gives you her phone number and then never answers the phone when you call.

I hope we do not have to rely on PA.


35 posted on 10/27/2012 8:54:14 AM PDT by Friend of the Friendless (R-Illinois)
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To: Ditto

PA always disapoints. She is like the the beautiful woman who gives you her phone number and then never answers the phone when you call.

I hope we do not have to rely on PA.


36 posted on 10/27/2012 8:54:21 AM PDT by Friend of the Friendless (R-Illinois)
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To: ez
OMG, my Mom’s family is from Dushore. First time I’ve ever seen anyone else who even heard of the place. There definitely will not be any Black Pampers hanging out there!!

Last August, while heading up Rte 220 toward Rome, I passed through Dushore and noticed a street fair going on. Since it was lunch time, I decided to find out if they had any good food. I had a pulled pork sandwich from the Boy Scouts and bought a bottle of some local maple syrup. I felt fortunate to have stumbled onto this event.

37 posted on 10/27/2012 9:05:33 AM PDT by Fiji Hill (Deo Vindice!)
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To: Perdogg

It’s going to be so much fun telling President “I Won” “You Lost.”


38 posted on 10/27/2012 9:12:59 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: Ditto

Don’t they generally announce as soon as the polls are closed in that particular state—except when they were trying to torpedo the Bush vote in the FL panhandle?


39 posted on 10/27/2012 9:20:55 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

“The West going for Obama/Biden will deflated like a pricked balloon.”
Yes, and that will have a beneficial effect on the defeat of Props 30 and 38 here in California. Without this money (and it’s all BS about it going for public schools; it would be headed into the teachers retirement) Jerry the Fairy is going to have his butt in a crack! If they have to cut back on “public education” here, it will probably be of benefit to our children given the fact that the “government schools” are not educating our kids in the first place.


40 posted on 10/27/2012 9:32:19 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: Perdogg

Special Report had a rather convincing segment on Friday that it might come down to WI.

Just saying...


41 posted on 10/27/2012 9:37:37 AM PDT by moehoward
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To: Perdogg
Per Morris, Romney in PA is now +2 and the gap is widening.

Today, Obama speaks to an audience of dozens in NH.

42 posted on 10/27/2012 9:39:45 AM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Plus there’s no “walking-around money” this cycle.”

I’d be interested to know where you get that . . .


43 posted on 10/27/2012 9:44:09 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: ModelBreaker

Read some of my threads, especially from HillBuzz.


44 posted on 10/27/2012 9:46:01 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: WomBom

The same thing is happening here in Allegheny Cty (Pittsburgh) last time huge number of Zero signs, few McCain, this time Zero signs are Way down and RR signs popping up everywhere. Same thing for bumper stickers. I am optimistic despite myself.


45 posted on 10/27/2012 9:47:10 AM PDT by slorunner
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To: Perdogg

I’m waiting for the flash mobs and looting to start in Philly next week. That’s gonna seal it for Romney.


46 posted on 10/27/2012 9:47:38 AM PDT by 11th_VA (Keep your laws OFF my Big Gulp !)
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To: goldstategop

PA was ‘lost’ when the appellate judge threw out the Voter ID law. The fraud in Philly will off-set Romney’s surge in the rest of the state. That is my prediction, anyway.


47 posted on 10/27/2012 9:52:00 AM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: Fiji Hill

I had a pulled pork sandwich from the Boy Scouts “””

Oh, nuts!!

I just ate breakfast & now I am yearning for a pulled pork sandwich!!! A place in Carson City—Red’s 395 Cafe-— has the best!!!!


48 posted on 10/27/2012 9:54:27 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: newnhdad
very “blue” state

PA is not blue.. the blue is only around Philly and Pittsburgh. Unfortunately... those blue area have more population than the red area...

49 posted on 10/27/2012 9:57:57 AM PDT by ExCTCitizen (Yes, Obama, I had help with my business. MY CUSTOMERS!)
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To: slorunner

Driving around Johnstown yesterday, I couldn’t believe the R/R signs, yard after yard of them in neighborhoods. I was shocked at the sheer numbers of them.


50 posted on 10/27/2012 9:59:31 AM PDT by Despot of the Delta
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