Don't Be Surprised if It's Pennsylvania

American Thinker ^

[AFPhys]

The PA polls close at 8PM. It is one of the first swing states, or marginally swing states, that will be counted.

[AFPhys]

Right now there are reports of super-high early first-day voter turnout in FL. FL voting ends at the same time as PA. If either FL is called early due to a clear landslide, or if PA gives Romney an early significant lead in Romney votes whether called or not, a significant effect could occur as other states with votes not yet cast rapidly redden.

[9YearLurker]

Which would give the MSM an incentive to hold the data in spite of the competitive pressures.

[MitchellC]

Many African-American preachers have already indicated that Obama hasn't done anything for black people and that his views on gay marriage do not match their own. They will not be lining up the busses to take their parishioners to the polls.

The idea that this is going to have a big effect on black turnout is wishful thinking on our part. That isn't to say that it couldn't have had an effect, if someone had undertaken a major campaign to point out Obama's queer-loving to blacks, but the occasional pastor here or there isn't getting it done. Not from what I've seen in the early voting statistics here in NC and the anecdotal experience, anyway.

Therefore, I would NOT expect a significant drop-off in black turnout. If it's below 95% of what it was in 2008, I'll be surprised.

[xp38]

Let’s hope if that is the scenario maybe Fox would break the embargo.

[MitchellC]

I'll give an explanation for Obama's miserable performance in the first debate, his surprisingly mediocre convention speech, and his frightfully inept (if not worse) response to the Benghazi consulate attack, too. He was told by his own people several months ago that he's going down in flames, and he's basically been mailing it in since then.

I thought the same thing when watching the first debate, but then again I'm wondering if his own people would have the guts to tell him that sort of thing, at least in that way. You'd think they would paint a rosier scenario to him than 'you can't win,' if only to prevent him from doing these sorts of things and hurting their down-ballots. Also, 'you can't win' probably sounds bad coming from guys hired to make sure he wins. I suppose there could have been no second opinions available, though?

It does make a lot of sense out of the VP and 2nd debate performances though - get the base excited with dumb crap, fight to keep the party from splitting apart.

[MNJohnnie]

IF NH-PA-VA-NC-FLA go Romney the election will be over at 10pm EST election night

[Ditto]

PA always disapoints. She is like the the beautiful woman who gives you her phone number and then never answers the phone when you call. I hope we do not have to rely on PA.

I think that 'beautiful lady' just might be the icing on the cake this year. I hope you enjoy it.

[newnhdad]

You’re right, we really don’t have any “blue” states, only urban areas that have dense populations dependent on the government. Maryland is the same way. Montgomery, PG and Baltimore counties carry the state.

[Alberta's Child]

The scenario I presented is exactly what happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980, who knew as early as August that he was going to lose badly.

[FredZarguna]

Well here’s somebody else who has. I used to drive through Dushore all the time on my way from State College when I was working a contract with the Leprino Cheese plant in Sayre PA/Waverly NY in the late 1980’s. That’s just beautiful country everywhere North of Hughesville on through to Ithaca. They do get killer fog on US220, though.

[Fiji Hill]

That is beautiful country, indeed. After crossing into New York at Nichols, I passed through Waverly as I headed west toward Ohio.

[ez]

Nice to meet you Fred. I lived in all those towns... Dushore, Sayre, and Waverly but all before I was three years old.

[bootless]

I was shocked to hear that Skippy thought he won Debate 1. Is that possible?

I wonder, wonder, wonder what was on his mind that night instead of the debate? That was October 3. I wonder what crap was raining on him from Benghazi?