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Michael Barone Predicts That Romney Will Win 2012 Presidential Race
pjmedia ^ | October 26, 2012 | Ed Driscoll

Posted on 10/27/2012 7:45:21 AM PDT by Snuph

Video at link...

After discussing the nuts and bolts of Ohio and other battleground states with Sean Hannity on Friday night (interesting in its own right), at the conclusion of the interview, Barone is asked by Hannity which candidate he believes will win. “Mitt Romney,” he replies.

Add that to Jim Geraghty’s comments that “Barring Some Sudden Change, Romney Will Win the Popular Vote,” and you have two prominent statistics-oriented conservative pundits who — at least as of Friday, October 26 — are willing to go on the record that they believe Romney will win in November.

(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 202predictions; barone; romney2012

1 posted on 10/27/2012 7:45:24 AM PDT by Snuph
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To: Snuph

Good news. Michael Barone is the gold standard of political prognosticators.


2 posted on 10/27/2012 7:47:28 AM PDT by traderrob6
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To: Snuph

I’d have say sorry, Michael Barone you’re late to the party.

I made that call after the second debate earlier this month.

But thanks for joining me!


3 posted on 10/27/2012 7:53:42 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Snuph

I, for one, can’t wait for Nate Silver’s first column after Election Day..


4 posted on 10/27/2012 7:54:56 AM PDT by ken5050 (Another reason to vote for Mitt: The Mormon Tabernacle Choir will perform at the WH Christmas party)
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To: Snuph

Him, I trust.


5 posted on 10/27/2012 7:56:10 AM PDT by arichtaxpayer
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To: Snuph

Barone has a little more gravitas than Morris. I’m heartened.


6 posted on 10/27/2012 7:59:22 AM PDT by umgud (No Rats, No Rino's)
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To: goldstategop

After the first debate I had to scrape myself off the ceiling over the outstanding performance of Romney and the disastrous performance by Obama. I actually could not sit still watching it. I was pacing the floor shouting at the TV. “I can’t believe this. Romney is killing him. I can’t believe this. Obama is a disaster!” When it was over, I called several friends and said, “Romney just won the election!” I was convinced that the entire direction of the campaign had moved irreversibly to Romney. They were somewhat, but not totally skeptical. When election day comes and Romney wins in a landslide, I’m going to call them back and remind them!


7 posted on 10/27/2012 8:02:04 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: ken5050

Nate will blame it on racism, I suspect.


8 posted on 10/27/2012 8:03:13 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Snuph.


9 posted on 10/27/2012 8:03:13 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Snuph

IMHO Our electoral system is so full of holes, I’d never bet on its outcome.


10 posted on 10/27/2012 8:04:31 AM PDT by DJ Taylor (Once again our country is at war, and once again the Democrats have sided with our enemy.)
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To: Snuph

I don’t know that anyone out there knows the electorate, county by county, as well as Barone. this is good stuff.


11 posted on 10/27/2012 8:04:34 AM PDT by SoDak (Obama..change you can step in.)
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To: Snuph

Barone is one of the best at analyzing races. He always gets down to the nitty-gritty. Prayers that he is right. Truth about Behghazi could totally derail Obama.


12 posted on 10/27/2012 8:05:21 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: Snuph

I trust Barone, but Gerahty blew it last time. He wasn’t even close in his analysis.


13 posted on 10/27/2012 8:06:03 AM PDT by vmivol00 (I won't be reconstructed.)
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To: Snuph

I pray he’s correct but every other story I’m seeing today is about dem voter fraud and it appears as if nothing is being done to stop it.


14 posted on 10/27/2012 8:11:04 AM PDT by albie ("Work as if you were to live a hundred years. Pray as if you were to die tomorrow." Benjamin Frankli)
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To: Snuph

Good to see Barone weigh in!! Hope he’ll convince some folks who were still on the fence to move on over to the Republican side!


15 posted on 10/27/2012 8:13:01 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: umgud

Morris however is the king of polls and has actually led a poll driven campaign. Don’t sell him short, he was the only one who predicted the midterm blowout.

Pray for America


16 posted on 10/27/2012 8:14:21 AM PDT by bray (Islam- A billion medieval savages can't be wrong!)
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To: Snuph

I like Barone, but he was LATE LATE LATE to tea party, LATE to Palin, LATE to 2010, LATE to Brown in Mass, LATE to Christie, McDonnell, etc.

He is LATELY LATE.

He is right, but I predicted this last week, and in fact, for all four years of Obama’s reign.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/10/the_wave_that_breaks_the_liberal_bubble.html


17 posted on 10/27/2012 8:15:32 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: ken5050
I, for one, can’t wait for Nate Silver’s first column after Election Day.

You will be disappointed:

-"I did say there was a 25% chance of a Romney victory; two touchdown underdogs still win sometimes."

-"Bad polls because of "Bradley effect; early voting."

-"No one could expect Benghazi; the unprecedented debate fallout; this was an election like nothing that has happened before; Obama's team was incredibly inept; know one could know the true extent of the enthusiasm gap; etc. . . ."

18 posted on 10/27/2012 8:18:55 AM PDT by StandAndDeliver1
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To: C. Edmund Wright
He is LATELY LATE.

If that's true, then his prediction now holds even more weight. If even Barone says it's Romney, then the fat lady has sung.

19 posted on 10/27/2012 8:22:57 AM PDT by StandAndDeliver1
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To: Snuph
Romney has the momentum now, the hurricane coverage next week will dominate news, especially if it does damage.

They will show Obama trying to act presidential...maybe even how government aid is going to help.

20 posted on 10/27/2012 8:23:08 AM PDT by opentalk
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To: Snuph

I think last week was the first time I honestly said to someone out loud and in public that I think Romney is going to win. And I usually try to be very careful about proclamations and predictions like that.

It’s just a gut feeling I’m getting from the tone coming out of both campaigns and supporters, and even the media when they aren’t grasping for straws for Obama. There’s a certain angry defensiveness and loss of identity that I’m sensing from the left similar to what happened with them in 2004 and did not plague them in 2008.

The Obama Fad is over.


21 posted on 10/27/2012 8:24:36 AM PDT by ShovelPenguin
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To: Snuph
I'm confident that Romney is going to win .... as long as the votes are counted correctly and reported accurately.

It's the counting and reporting part that has me worried.

Overseas machines, UN "observers", the Left's undiluted hatred for this country, an openly complicit media -- what if any steps have been taken by Repubs or whatever authority to ensure this election isn't stolen?

To put it bluntly -- and I've asked this many times -- what happens if the Obozo Regime simply declares "we won". I think we're past the point of shrugging off such a possibility. The media will never give us a fair picture of what's happened and will, in fact, outright lie for Obozo. Moreover, Republican "leaders" have done virtually nothing to naysay him and his illegalities to this point. I have no confidence -- none -- that they would stand up to the Muslim Marxist over this election.

Does anyone else share this concern?

22 posted on 10/27/2012 8:24:51 AM PDT by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1)
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To: StandAndDeliver1

Yep - I agree with you.

And the fat lady did not sing - she went viral - as in Candy Crowley and her shameless covering of Obama in the debate. I think that was the moment a lot finally “clicked” for many. Many other things have been “clicking” for folks since Obama was inaugurated frankly, but this was a key fat lady moment....


23 posted on 10/27/2012 8:25:25 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: bray

Perhaps but I recall him guaranteeing that Hillary would be elected President in 2008 so I take him with a grain.


24 posted on 10/27/2012 8:28:26 AM PDT by StarFan
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To: bray

Perhaps but I recall him guaranteeing that Hillary would be elected President in 2008 so I take him with a grain.


25 posted on 10/27/2012 8:28:33 AM PDT by StarFan
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To: albie
I pray he’s correct but every other story I’m seeing today is about dem voter fraud and it appears as if nothing is being done to stop it.

Don't let the 'nattering nabobs of negetavism' get to you. Make sure to get to the polls, and see that a few friends get there, as well.

26 posted on 10/27/2012 8:52:31 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Snuph

I geninually like Michael Barone and have upmost respect for his statements.

He writes and speaks in footnotes. For every statement, there are 10 or 12 footnotes. That is, 90% of his stuff is footnotes that for me sometimes blur or muddy the actual statement.


27 posted on 10/27/2012 9:02:41 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: C. Edmund Wright
Barone has so much statistical voting knowledge in his brain it makes him sometimes late to the party. As long as he eventually shows up, it does bode well for R/R.
28 posted on 10/27/2012 9:23:36 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: Snuph

Michael Barone is America’s best election analyst; no one has a more encyclopedic knowledge of how people vote in which counties.

I don’t know his record as a prognosticator, but my sense from reading his work - and having met him a few times - is that he is very cautious, and very thorough.

If Barone is calling it for Romney, it seems significant to me.


29 posted on 10/27/2012 9:26:26 AM PDT by karnage
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To: Snuph; All
The bigger question is this...

What is Barone saying about the Senate Races.

He is the geek (that is a compliment) that can tell you what is happening down to the local level.

The Senate will make or break the Romney Administration.

Barone will nail it to within one or two seats..

We need to know, to potentially reinforce the weak seats with $ and to maybe get another one or two in the Senate...

30 posted on 10/27/2012 9:26:45 AM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: C. Edmund Wright
I like Barone, but he was LATE LATE LATE to tea party

Thats because he is very cautious in his predictions and waits until he has enough information to make an accurate one. I have heard it said that he knows the demographics of every congressional district in America. It makes me feel much better to hear that he thinks Romney will win!

31 posted on 10/27/2012 9:28:17 AM PDT by srmorton (Deut. 30 19: "..I have set before you life and death,....therefore, choose life..")
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To: workerbee; Snuph
I'm confident that Romney is going to win .... as long as the votes are counted correctly and reported accurately.

Pray for the safety of our candidates and their families.

Pray for a free and fair election, one in which the will of the people is accurately expressed.

32 posted on 10/27/2012 9:34:47 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: srmorton

Yes, he is a micro genius - but often misses the macro trends that are obvious to others.

Detail brains and big picture brains work differently. His is detail oriented brain and DC centered life is what contributes to him being so late so often. But yes, he’s usually right when he arrives.


33 posted on 10/27/2012 9:57:51 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: Snuph

Would have loved to have heard more of his reasoning behind his picking Romney.

I am sure it would have involved sound data / logic and would have been very encouraging. Maybe next week he will expound on his prediction.


34 posted on 10/27/2012 10:36:07 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: comebacknewt

It is because Romney has a +5% lead in the national polls-no candidate has ever lost with that lead!


35 posted on 10/27/2012 11:55:45 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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